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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

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Old Mar 10, 19, 4:43 pm
  #76  
 
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Post below points out this is not a max...thanks for the info. I have seen this video of a Max tipping at the gate. Is this the balance issue the SW is addressing?

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Last edited by Mr. Vker; Mar 10, 19 at 4:49 pm
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Old Mar 10, 19, 4:46 pm
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Thats not a MAX, that's a 739. The MAX EIS wasn't until 2017.

IIRC owing to balance issues, its required to load the forward baggage hold first during baggage loading and to empty the rear baggage hold first during unloading. There is also a pole for the 739 (a tail stand?) that is used to ensure the plane does not tip backwards.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 4:48 pm
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer View Post
Thats not a MAX, that's a 739. The MAX EIS wasn't until 2017.
Thanks!
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:13 pm
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Another interesting article on the Lion Air loss was published by AirlineRatings.com, LION AIR AND ITS PILOTS WERE AWARE OF NEW 737 FLIGHT SYSTEM, by Geoffrey Thomas, November 27, 2018 link. The use of the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) and it’s documetation by Boeing are discussed, as well as the fact that aircraft should not have been flying at all due to a previously reported fault.

In the loss of Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29, erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor caused the MCAS to think the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down.

Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.

According to the 737 Check Captain, reports that MCAS is not in the manual “are not correct.”

“It is absolutely there. It’s not a Checklist Memory Item but nor are the other causes of a Runaway Stabilizer Trim.”

What is a Checklist Memory Item is how to switch off a Runaway Stabilizer Trim.

“It’s very, very simple.”

“We don’t want our pilots troubleshooting which issue is causing the problem – we want them to turn it off.”

“So, on the 737NG, there are, I think four causes for a Runaway Stabilizer Trim now there are five.”

According to the check captain, all airlines were briefed on the new feature and the detail is in the pilot manuals.

Clearly, the Lion Air pilots knew how to deal with such a problem because on the three previous flights of that aircraft the same problem of incorrect Angle of Attack data was causing the system to activate as it thought the plane was about to stall.

“Those pilots switched the Stabilizer Trim off.”
That fateful time, they didn’t. Faulty aircraft allowed to fly. Pilot error. These are what are likely to be listed by the investigative teem from Indonesia, the USA and Boeing.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:21 pm
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
I don’t care what’s going on but I’m refusing to set foot on a max until further notice. I’ll take longer trips, lose upgrades, don’t care. Something is seriously wrong here and I’m not risking my life on this aircraft
A reasonable response. Since its introduction in 2017, the MAX has now established a fatality rate that is at least 1,000 times higher than the 737NG and A320ceo/neo over the same period. It has two 100% fatal hull losses in less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. For context, the DC-10, which is widely regarded to have suffered serious safety flaws in the initial design, still made it over 1,600 aircraft-years of operation before its second 100% fatal hull loss. Something is wrong with the MAX.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:29 pm
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Time to take a step back and wait for the facts.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:29 pm
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Originally Posted by milypan View Post
A reasonable response. Since its introduction in 2017, the MAX has now established a fatality rate that is at least 1,000 times higher than the 737NG and A320ceo/neo over the same period. It has two 100% fatal hull losses in less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. For context, the DC-10, which is widely regarded to have suffered serious safety flaws in the initial design, still made it over 1,600 aircraft-years of operation before its second 100% fatal hull loss. Something is wrong with the MAX.
That’s quite a use of data there.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:44 pm
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This is really the fault of Boeing running the 737 into the ground. The 737 is a fantastic airplane and probably no plane will ever come close to it's sales & popularity, but the MAX is an example of a Frankenstein experiment gone wrong. The 737 Original Series, 737 Classic Series, and 737 NG's were all pioneers and while all had teething issues, never killed two full plane load of passengers.

The MAX needs to go away and Boeing needs to start innovating instead of making the 737 a poorly thought out uncoordinated disaster.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:47 pm
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Originally Posted by no1cub17 View Post
Can't say I disagree. Boeing is rather lucky that the two crashes were an Asian and African airline. If either one was an AA or UA plane, the max would've already been grounded no questions asked.

I feel so bad for ET - they're a fantastic airline and I hope they recover from this. Not to mention the delicious Doro Wot at the cloud nine lounge - maybe my favorite lounge meal ever.
the fact this happened in Africa and Asia means it’s more likely to occur again than had an eu or us carrier crashed.

People woke up today, saw the news and said that’s sad then kept drinking their coffee. It’s an African problem, or an Asian problem

but the reality is et is a great airline and this was a new aircraft. I’m hoping a us carrier voluntarily grounds their fleet or the faa step in (doubt either will happen to be clear). Otherwise it’s just a matter of time for another airframe failure given the awesome and sobering stats pulled by @milypan
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:49 pm
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Originally Posted by JDiver View Post
That’s quite a use of data there.
I think that's sarcastic, but I'm not certain. I'll try to put this as simply as possible. Over the past decade, the average rate of ~100% fatal hull losses for the 737NG and A320 is less than 1 per 10,000 aircraft-years of operation (i.e., a rate of 0.0001). That includes everything -- even CFIT, terrorism, and suicide. The MAX has less than 300 aircraft-years of operation. The probability that it would suffer at least two 100% fatal hull losses in that period, if it had the same safety profile as the 737NG and A320, is less than 1 in 1,000. Hence the conclusion that there's almost certainly something wrong with it.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 5:52 pm
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Originally Posted by DCP2016 View Post
This is really the fault of Boeing running the 737 into the ground. The 737 is a fantastic airplane and probably no plane will ever come close to it's sales & popularity, but the MAX is an example of a Frankenstein experiment gone wrong. The 737 Original Series, 737 Classic Series, and 737 NG's were all pioneers and while all had teething issues, never killed two full plane load of passengers.

The MAX needs to go away and Boeing needs to start innovating instead of making the 737 a poorly thought out uncoordinated disaster.
Not two planes full, but the 73 original/classic did have rudder hardover issues which led to two spectacular crashes in COS and PIT and at least on near crash (Eastwind flight near RIC).
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Old Mar 10, 19, 6:01 pm
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It seems China has decided not to wait for the facts

China has asked its domestic airlines to ground Boeing 737 Max.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...x-caijing-says
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Old Mar 10, 19, 6:02 pm
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Rumors are the CAAC has ordered its 737-MAX registered fleet grounded.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 6:03 pm
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"China has asked its domestic airlines to ground all 737 Max."

I am more than confident if the aircraft was Chinese made- there would be no action by China.
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Old Mar 10, 19, 7:22 pm
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Just saw this

Cayman Airways suspends Max 8 operations

https://www.caymanairways.com/CALsuspendsMax8Operations
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