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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

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Old Mar 13, 19, 4:49 pm
  #376  
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one? (Some posts have been moved to that thread.) /Moderator

NOTE: As of 1810 Central, member dickinson posted “EXP agent got bulletin when I spoke with him. Flights through April 4th on the 737 max can be rescheduled without penalty.

Be sure to follow the reaccommodation issue in https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/amer...d-fly-one.html

See below for PDF AA 7M8 grounding announcement.
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Last edited by JDiver; Mar 13, 19 at 5:23 pm
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Old Mar 13, 19, 5:16 pm
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Originally Posted by arlflyer View Post
Looking at schedule availability out of MIA now, things look like a real mess. Should get interesting. This is the kind of thing that years of fleet rationalization and squeezing every seat cannot predict. There's now no slack in the system.
This is the fascinating part to me of this whole thing, how do the airlines manage losing these aircraft. Planes go to Roswell to die - maybe they can bring some of the Mad Dogs back, but it seems unlikely. They also need enough pilots with current certification to fly the Super 80 and I have to image those numbers aren't as large as they used to be, although maybe it's sufficient.

More likely to me would be some attempt to sacrifice frequency. Maybe take a few lower yielding routes down from 4x or 3x per day to 2x or 1x. Maybe decrease TATL frequency on a few routes (farm pax that cannot be rebooked on AA due to capacity out to partners like BA, IB, etc) and use the larger aircraft to satisfy needed capacity on MAX routes. If that happens, OP-UPs might be available on former MAX routes.

AA has a lot more options than, say, WN. I have no clue how Southwest will manage this given their quantity of MAXes and lack of partners.
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Old Mar 13, 19, 5:19 pm
  #378  
 
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There were massive wind storms at DFW this morning (4:30 - 5:00 am time frame). About 30+ jets - everything from MD80s to 777s had to be taken out of service owing to the need to inspect for damage.

On top of this you have
  • Oasis installation failures to 737-800s at PAE
  • two dozen 737-Max 800 aircraft being grounded
This is a week of suck for AA fleet dispatch.
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Old Mar 13, 19, 11:02 pm
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With all this happening and I’m super thankful I just switched to Delta, no MAX. I feel sorry for those on the Ethiopian flight. I can’t imagine what would be going through their minds. I text my wife every time I land so she knows I’m where I’m supposed to be. Now it means even more.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 12:08 am
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Blog article makes a very honest (IMHO) assessment on where Boeing stands at this point (h/t PPRune):

https://leehamnews.com/2019/03/13/co...-transparency/

Last edited by SouthernCross; Mar 14, 19 at 12:54 am
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Old Mar 14, 19, 1:00 am
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Sounds like if it is Boeing, it ain't going these days, if I am not mistaken...
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Old Mar 14, 19, 1:20 am
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Old Mar 14, 19, 3:45 am
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Boeing is a great company but something went wrong here. How did not during all the testing and certification process this not be caught. 737 is a great aircraft. So many Max aircraft in production and on order.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 5:40 am
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Originally Posted by Cledaybuck View Post
While I generally agree with this move, Trump should not be the one announcing it. That makes it look even more political and not safety focused.
Agreed (and not politically motivated - I would say the same regardless of who was sitting in the White House).

Shouldn't the FAA, the regulatory agency, announce the grounding since, at least according to AA's website, the FAA is the one that issued the order?
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Old Mar 14, 19, 7:46 am
  #385  
 
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There is an elephant in the room. Third world pilots don't know how to fly. They are simply managers of the video game that is the cockpit. They don't know the aircraft systems and don't know how or when to hand fly the plane. The Asiana pilots who pranged the 777 at SFO are a perfect example. The cockpit recordings of Lion Air show the pilots were morons who did not understand the aircraft. Sometimes even non third world pilots don't know how to fly...example the Air France crash in South America where too late the captain came back into the cockpit to see the co-pilot fly the plane into the ocean. As I see it (and I am a pilot) what is going on is hysteria, grounding of an aircraft type, not because it is unsafe, but because too many airlines don't train their flight crews properly.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 8:41 am
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Originally Posted by sfoeuroflyer View Post
There is an elephant in the room. Third world pilots don't know how to fly. They are simply managers of the video game that is the cockpit. They don't know the aircraft systems and don't know how or when to hand fly the plane. The Asiana pilots who pranged the 777 at SFO are a perfect example. The cockpit recordings of Lion Air show the pilots were morons who did not understand the aircraft. Sometimes even non third world pilots don't know how to fly...example the Air France crash in South America where too late the captain came back into the cockpit to see the co-pilot fly the plane into the ocean. As I see it (and I am a pilot) what is going on is hysteria, grounding of an aircraft type, not because it is unsafe, but because too many airlines don't train their flight crews properly.
Since you are a pilot, you no doubt understand the concept of Minimally Qualified Candidate. This concept is used to sanction pilots, doctors, engineers, and many other professions. Aircraft must (and in most recent history have) be designed to not kill a Minimally Qualified Candidate. Are there better pilots and worse pilots? Yes, of course there are, but it’s statistically impossible to have all better pilots. That’s why the concept of Minimally Qualified is used. But to use a broad brush to disparage “third world” pilots is at best out of touch.

If you are saying the MQC bar needs to be raised, I take no issue. Yes, pilots need to know the aircraft, but in order for that to happen the aircraft manufacturers have to make the information available. With the MAX 8/9 it is well documented that this did not happen until recent events forced it into view. This is a global challenge, and yes there are things that are broken, but solving it requires a global inclusive approach.


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Old Mar 14, 19, 9:29 am
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Originally Posted by SouthernCross View Post


Since you are a pilot, you no doubt understand the concept of Minimally Qualified Candidate. This concept is used to sanction pilots, doctors, engineers, and many other professions. Aircraft must (and in most recent history have) be designed to not kill a Minimally Qualified Candidate. Are there better pilots and worse pilots? Yes, of course there are, but it’s statistically impossible to have all better pilots. That’s why the concept of Minimally Qualified is used. But to use a broad brush to disparage “third world” pilots is at best out of touch.

If you are saying the MQC bar needs to be raised, I take no issue. Yes, pilots need to know the aircraft, but in order for that to happen the aircraft manufacturers have to make the information available. With the MAX 8/9 it is well documented that this did not happen until recent events forced it into view. This is a global challenge, and yes there are things that are broken, but solving it requires a global inclusive approach.

I do think this is part of a growing trend of pilots that do not understand flying basics, and only understand the system as presented in front of them. US1549 is a perfect example of this. As airplanes get more complex and more automated/electronic, this will only become a growing trend.

Someone that flew on an older plane with less automation and more hands on flying will likely be a better pilot than someone who has only flown on a current gen plane that does some of the work for them.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 10:27 am
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Originally Posted by bchandler02 View Post
I do think this is part of a growing trend of pilots that do not understand flying basics, and only understand the system as presented in front of them. US1549 is a perfect example of this. As airplanes get more complex and more automated/electronic, this will only become a growing trend.

Someone that flew on an older plane with less automation and more hands on flying will likely be a better pilot than someone who has only flown on a current gen plane that does some of the work for them.
I agree with you, although "better pilot" is pretty subjective. In your example, they might be a better instrument pilot, whereas today's pilots need to have quite a bit more experience with electrical and fly-by-wire systems.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 10:40 am
  #389  
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Originally Posted by sfoeuroflyer View Post
There is an elephant in the room. Third world pilots don't know how to fly. They are simply managers of the video game that is the cockpit. They don't know the aircraft systems and don't know how or when to hand fly the plane. The Asiana pilots who pranged the 777 at SFO are a perfect example. The cockpit recordings of Lion Air show the pilots were morons who did not understand the aircraft. Sometimes even non third world pilots don't know how to fly...example the Air France crash in South America where too late the captain came back into the cockpit to see the co-pilot fly the plane into the ocean. As I see it (and I am a pilot) what is going on is hysteria, grounding of an aircraft type, not because it is unsafe, but because too many airlines don't train their flight crews properly.
I’d probably dispense with the phrase “third world pilots”, but I understand what you’re implying, I think. Thanks for your perspective.

There are numbers of issues, IMO.

Airline (affected by national) cultures. It was Qantas, iirc, that developed the basis of CRM (cockpit or crew resources management) and it was airlines with military trained pilots, hierarchically influenced cultures (where which school one attended, progressing to caste, etc.), had the greatest resistance to CRM. E.g. there have been numerous accidents in which a junior pilot deferred to a senior pilot committing a serious error even though they knew potentially serious consequences could result.


Training. Some airlines, such as in the US, have relied on military trained pilots for its prime supply. (Secondary sources include professional aviation schools such as Purdue or Embry Riddle, and “making it the hard way” by humping your way up from private pilot to Commercial to CFI to ATP and a commuter, charter or freight line to major airline.) Others select college graduates, etc. (who may have non-technical degrees) who don’t fly and put them through everything from ab initio training through the right seat.

Experience. This can vary hugely, from meeting the minima to thousands of hours in varied aircraft and conditions, relying on flight data and automation to extensive “hand flying” and awareness of aircraft characteristics. E.g. I participated in an investigation of a USAF Aero Club member who had over 5,000 hours - many as a test pilot of advanced jet combat aircraft.,he put his family in a club Ryan Navion for a trip to Twin Falls, Idaho and pranged the plane because he began by mismanaging the Navion’s fuel system and ended on fumes trying to force what became a high, short landing on a paved and gravel mixed runway. (He had approximately five hours in type, iirc.)

Information available. In this instance, Boeing significantly altered the MAX cockpit by adding the MCAS and its reliance on AOA selection and validation while the pilot flying was hand flying the aircraft, without apparently disclosing all of that in the original Crew Operations Manual. The updated Bulletin to be added to the ops manual was on,y issued 7 November 2018, over a week after the Lion Aur crash, and included “Boeing would like to call attention to an AOA failure condition that can occur during manual flight only.”

On Mar 12th 2019 Boeing issued following release with respect to MCAS, Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian flight 302:

For the past several months and in the aftermath of Lion Air Flight 610, Boeing has been developing a flight control software enhancement for the 737 MAX, designed to make an already safe aircraft even safer. This includes updates to the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) flight control law, pilot displays, operation manuals and crew training. The enhanced flight control law incorporates angle of attack (AOA) inputs, limits stabilizer trim commands in response to an erroneous angle of attack reading, and provides a limit to the stabilizer command in order to retain elevator authority. - Aviation Herald
Once the information was made available, how an airline and it’s cockpit personnel handle it makes a huge difference as well. Is it handled as an observation to be ticked off in a checklist? Is it highlighted, discussed, disseminated with priority, included in simulation (iirc there is no MAX simulator, though one might assume a 737NG simulator could theoretically be programmed if the software exists), required in the check pilots’ rides, etc?

Lots of “ifs”, and we really can only speculate until the investigation reports are released. In both cases, the local agency nominally leads (KNKT, synonym of National Transportation Safety Committee in Bahasa, and Ethio.pian Civil Aviation Authority and the Ethio.pian Transport Authority in Ethiopia), and other stakeholders in accordance with ICAO Annex 13 5.27 (US NTSB because the aircraft is American, Boeing as manufscturer, other nations invited or experiencing losses, such as Canadian TSB in the ET incident, and French BEA - analyzing the data from the ET FDR and CVR “black boxes”). Tons of speculation out there (and here), but the investigation results will be both revealing and, as often is the case, the fulcrum for changes which will save lives in the future.
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Old Mar 14, 19, 12:36 pm
  #390  
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Originally Posted by Nuhusky View Post
So how safe is everyone going to feel flying these in the future, us as frequent fliers and the general public

I’ll argue that the max is forever tainted, I won’t fly one anytime soon after they issue an inevitable fix. Not worth the risk in my opinion. I’d bet the press hyping this up (which I agree with for the record) will impact the perception of all fliers. Only question being whether avg joe knows they are on a max or not
Most people just buy the cheapest ticket. It's why outfits like LIon Air can fill planes.
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