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Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

Recent 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Jun 17, 19, 6:57 am   -   Wikipost
Please read: This is a community-maintained wiki post containing the most important information from this thread. You may edit the Wiki once you have been on FT for 90 days and have made 90 posts.
 
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?


13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through 19 August 2019.

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

Currently, AA has removed the 737 MAX 8 aircraft from scheduling through 19 August 2019. The FAA must clear the MAX before it can fly again. AA has 24 MAX 8s grounded and has canceled 115 daily flights as a result. 30 April 2019

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Old Mar 11, 19, 2:13 pm
  #166  
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Didn't see this posted in the thread. Mods, feel free to move/merge. Thanks.

Interesting memo

American Airlines Flight Attendants Union Telling Crew They Don’t Have to Work the 737 MAX

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea...k-the-737-max/
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Old Mar 11, 19, 2:16 pm
  #167  
 
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Originally Posted by 24left View Post
Didn't see this posted in the thread. Mods, feel free to move/merge. Thanks.

Interesting memo

American Airlines Flight Attendants Union Telling Crew They Don’t Have to Work the 737 MAX

https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea...k-the-737-max/
Interesting that they will reaccommodate staff who don't want to fly on the plane, but not customers.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 2:24 pm
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
Interesting that they will reaccommodate staff who don't want to fly on the plane, but not customers.
This will get some play in the mainstream media soon enough, and AA will then have to relent. Will be a horrible look if AA lets crew opt out but not passengers. Then again I wouldn't put anything past Dougie.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 2:39 pm
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Originally Posted by MarkOK View Post
As much as memories can warp in the mind for witnesses to a tragedy, I would say there is not much there to go by.

"Rattling" noises, trailing smoke (and clothes and paper!?), all sounds like fuzzy post-witness memory jumble to me.
Agree. I recall all the witnesses that said the TWA 747 crash off of Long Island many years ago was hit by a missle fired from a Navy ship.
Now that they have the black boxes, I’m sure they’ll get to the bottom of this horrible tragedy quickly for everyone’s sake, especially the families of those poor passengers and crew members,
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:11 pm
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
Interesting that they will reaccommodate staff who don't want to fly on the plane, but not customers.
They will reaccomodate customers - if the customers are willing to pay to change flights.

Hope investigators release preliminary findings from the black boxes soon, so people have a better idea of what happened.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:15 pm
  #171  
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Originally Posted by Austin787 View Post
They will reaccomodate customers - if the customers are willing to pay to change flights.

Hope investigators release preliminary findings from the black boxes soon, so people have a better idea of what happened.
He meant willing to accommodate a different itinerary without a fee. UA is.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:15 pm
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Originally Posted by Spanish View Post
Taking those facts at face value, I still have no issue getting on the 737 MAX aeroplane. Even if the current safety record continued, it would be incredibly unlikely that I'd get caught up in a crash...
A totally reasonable choice. It's still got a decent safety record by 1960s aviation standards, and it's not like people didn't fly back then. It's just that aviation has gotten a couple orders of magnitude safer in the intervening 50 years. My own risk preferences are different, but even I would not avoid it under all circumstances, I'd just try to book away from it whenever possible (until it's clearly fixed).

Originally Posted by flyingeph12 View Post
And yet it appears AA has released a statement saying it has “full confidence” in the 737 MAX.
LOL, of course they did.

Originally Posted by wetrat0
This got me interested enough to do some analysis of my own.

According to Boeing's own statistics (http://www.boeing.com/resources/boei...df/statsum.pdf), the 737NG has a fatal hull loss rate of 0.08 per million departures...
Yup, that's virtually identical to the analysis that I did. Kudos for showing your work.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:23 pm
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Originally Posted by AA100k View Post

Agree. I recall all the witnesses that said the TWA 747 crash off of Long Island many years ago was hit by a missle fired from a Navy ship.
Now that they have the black boxes, I’m sure they’ll get to the bottom of this horrible tragedy quickly for everyone’s sake, especially the families of those poor passengers and crew members,
Heck, a decade ago I was bicycling to work in downtown Minneapolis and about 30 feet in front of me a loud and dramatic car wreck occurred. I filed a brief summary of what I saw with the police when they came soon thereafter, and even then an hour after the fact, I only had confidence in which direction which car was going so that is all I offered up. The day after and twelve more times in as many months the lawyers on both sides called me to drill me for any details I remember (must have been a court battle of the ages for the personal injury lawyers). Was my light green or was I slowing down for a red? Was either car slowing down or going at full speed or speeding? Was there other people around? I had no clue anymore -- I saw the entire thing occur, I was for sure either pedaling hard to make the green light or slowing down, but all I could remember was a loud bang (for sure), cars spinning (I think), glass shattering (surely, right?). And this is just a car wreck. I am pretty sure if I saw a plane crash, I would imagine I saw cows running, rattling metal, papers flying, and a trail of smoke too (logistics of cows running away from a nosediving 738 aside, the loud bang/explosion of the crash would for sure have wiped clean any clear memory the details observed seconds before).
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:45 pm
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While there may be an equipment issue, the fact remains, many pilots lack stick and rudder skills. No one wants to go back to piloting an aircraft entirely without any automation. However, when things go wrong, the insistence on trusting the computer is not always the best result. An incredible amount of retraining would go a long way to improving outcomes. Aviate, navigate, communicate. The fundamentals matter.

One may ignore the laws of physics but one will always be subject to them.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 3:46 pm
  #175  
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Originally Posted by cmd320 View Post
Interesting that they will reaccommodate staff who don't want to fly on the plane, but not customers.
Oh, I can think of a few words more specific than "interesting" to use here...
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Old Mar 11, 19, 4:48 pm
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Well, you can reaccommodate yourself, too.
Just as with the flight attendants ability to refuse work, there is a penalty.
Bottom line, though, no one is forcing you to fly on the aircraft.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:08 pm
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Originally Posted by econometrics View Post
Having flown ET more than any other airline outside of AA or BA, this is so very sad. ET has a very good safety record in modern aviation, save an eerily similar 738 crash in 2010 with another pilot who had a lot of hours and experience (like this flight).

But the initial similarities to this crash and the Lion Air MAX 8 crash are very alarming.

I do hope AA, and the pilots who fly the AA MAX 8, are able to speak into this. Only the pilots who have experience on this new type can shed light into other, perhaps unpublished, issues with the MCAS system. Pure speculation, yes, but just too much similarity to the crash in October. Glad I don't have any MAX 8 flights upcoming, just for the extra peace of mind.
It's refreshing to see some sensible posts, such as yours and JDiver's.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:17 pm
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Originally Posted by enviroian View Post
At this moment I will go out of the way to avoid the 737 MAX.
I just returned from Shanghai to LAX on AA182 (789) and spoke with the captain, who told me he too would avoid the MAX under the uncanny similarity in the known and unknown circumstances of the two crashes. I'm with him.
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Old Mar 11, 19, 6:22 pm
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Originally Posted by cedric View Post
Well, you can reaccommodate yourself, too.
Just as with the flight attendants ability to refuse work, there is a penalty.
Bottom line, though, no one is forcing you to fly on the aircraft.
The penalty is currently they have to use one of their personal days, and there is the ability to make that day up by being scheduled on an alternative day (presumably on a different aircraft). Additionally, their union is working to get that requirement waived. So if the union can get their penalties waived, should we expect passengers can get their change fee waived?
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Old Mar 11, 19, 7:05 pm
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The war of humans against the robots has begun, and we are losing already...
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