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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Mar 12, 2019, 12:03 pm
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This thread is dedicated to the effect on AA from the October 29, 2018 and March 10, 2019 crashes if two Boeing 737 MAX 8 aircraft in Indonesia and Ethiopia, respectively.

To discuss the probable and limited return of the Boeing MAX to service with AA at the end of 2020 and increasingly in 2021, please see

American Planning 737 MAX Service Restoration (Limited Dec and 2021)

To discuss reaccommodation by AA subsequent to the grounding of all Boeing MAX 8s and 9s by the US Federal Aviation Administration on 13 March 2019, please refer to 737 MAX grounded 13 Mar 2019. What to do if you were supposed to fly on one?

13 March 2019: All US airline Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft are grounded by US Federal Aviation Administration emergency order. AA has removed all 737 MAX 8 from scheduling through...
“Based on the latest guidance, the airline anticipates that the resumption of scheduled commercial service on American’s fleet of Boeing 737 MAX aircraft will occur (limited schedule Dec 2020).

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The thread regarding the 10 March 2019 Ethiopian Airlines ET 302 737 MAX 8 crash out of Adis Ababa is Ethiopian Airlines: Boeing 737 Max 8 crashes on way to Kenya [ET302 ADD-NBO 10MAR19]. Link.

The thread regarding the 29 October 2018 Lion Air JT 610 737 MAX 8 crash out of Jakarta is Lion Air flight from Jakarta has crashed
. Link.

The best narrative and information available is probably the Aviation Herald’s Crash: Lion B38M near Jakarta on Oct 29th 2018, aircraft lost height and crashed into Java Sea, wrong AoA data, by Simon Hradecky, created Friday, Oct 25th 2019 13:35Z, last updated Friday, Oct 25th 2019 16:05Z. Link.

American Airlines ordered 100 Boeing 737 MAX 8 (7M8) with options for 60 more. The first 737 MAX -8 flew at the assembly facility in Renton, WAshington, USA on 29 Jan 2016. Deliveries to AA commenced in late in 2017, with four delivered in 2017,16 more during 2018, with 20 more to be delivered during 2019. IATA code B38M; AA code "7M8".

Link to the story of how 737 MAX’ birth in the DFW Admirals Club and the forces that shaped it.

29 October 2018: Indonesian carrier Lion Air Flight 610 on October 29 crashed into the sea soon after takeoff with the loss of all aboard, apparently due to the erroneous data from a faulty Angle of Attack sensor, which caused the MCAS (Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System) to assume the plane was about to stall, which activated the downward force on the Stabilizer Trim to get the nose down. Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

“Instead of switching off the Stabilizer Trim the pilots appear to have battled the system.” Link

This aircraft had been written up as having a faulty AOA indicator for the previous three flights it had taken. It is unclear if Lion Air had performed adequate maintenance procedures after the reports or withdraw the aircraft from service until the fault could be completely cleared.

7 November 2018: The US Federal Aviation Administration / FAA issued an Airworthiness Directive (AD note) covering the AOA within a few days, giving US airlines 30 days to comply with the AD.

7 November 2018: Boeing issued revised operating instructions covering the revised MCAS used in the MAX 8, updating the MAX operations manual. See the manual update and the switches referenced in this post.

See “What is the Boeing 737 MAX Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System?”, updated November 17 to explain the MCAS and electric trim override operation, here: link.

10 March 10, 2019: An Ethiopian Airlines 737 MAX 8 departing Addis Ababa to Nairobi turned back to the airport soon after takeoff, but crashed with the loss of all aboard.

Link to BBC article.

Link to Aviation Herald discussion.

Link to FlyerTalk airline forum thread regarding this incident.

10 March 10, 2019: The US National Transportation Board / NTSB has dispatched an investigation team, as have Boeing, to Addis Ababa to assist the Ethiopian investigators in determining the cause(s) of the crash. The “black boxes” (cockpit voice and the flight data recorder have been recovered.

A revised MCAS is in the works, and the FAA is expected to issue an AD note when the MCAS update is done. This is expected to occur in May, 2019.

11 March 2019: China grounded its 737 MAX 8 (not MAX 9) fleet.

11 March 2019: the US FAA stated it would not ground US (AA, AS, UA, WN) 737 MAX aircraft at this time.

Link to FAA Airworthiness Notification for USA registered B38M aircraft PDF.

Link to Wall Street Journal article.

11 March 2019: AA APFA Flight Attendant union spokesperson asked AA to ground the MAX 8s. (TPG)

11 March 2019: AA pilots through their APA union have requested passengers allow the investigators do their work and refrain from jumping to conclusions. “We caution against speculation about what may have caused this tragic accident,” the Air Line Pilots Association said in a statement. (TPG)

12 March 2019: The nation members of the European Union, the United Kingdom and several other nations ban their airlines’ operation, and other airlines’ overflight or flights, of the B38M aircraft. Link to New York Times article.

12 March 2019: Other USA airlines operating 737 MAX aircraft (of all types) are United (UA), Southwest (WN). AS has ordered the MAX 9, but deliveries have not yet been made.

Link to The Points Guy “how to tell if you’re flying a 737 MAX 8” article

13 March 2019: American Airlines pilots’ union APA issues statement in support of the AA B38M: “The AA APA spokesman says AA's MAX 8s have additional indicators on the planes, which others do not have. He says they're the only ones equipped with TWO AOA displays - one for each pilot. This, I guess, is why AA feels they can keep flying the MAX 8. The spokesman said he felt UA and SW (WN) were getting these added to their MAX planes. “ - Econometrics

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/03/1...ilot-says.html

13 March 2019: Canada grounds Canadian B38M aircraft. The US is the sole remaining nation to allow operation of the 737 MAX 8. Link to USA Today article.

13 March 2019: US Federal Aviation Administration issues emergency order for immediate grounding all USA airline operated Boeing 737 MAX 8 and 9 aircraft, effectively immediately. Link NYT story.

13 March 2019: American Airlines issues announcement of 7M8 grounding. Link to PDF. According to AA:

On average, American operates 85 flights per day on the MAX 8, out of 6,700 departures throughout the American Airlines system. Our operations center is working to re-route aircraft throughout the system to cover as much of our schedule as we can.
13 March 2019: AA issues policy allowing those scheduled for 7M8 flights through April 4 to refund or change without fees for cancellations, or to make free changes to their flight plans. See the thread linked to at the top of this Wiki for a link.

14 March 2019: It is announced the French BEA will retrieve the data from the Ethiopian Cockpit Voice Recorder and Flight Data Recorder.

Link to Eight things you might not know about black boxes
By Cristen Tilley, ABC Australia

15 March 2019: BBC article states FAA says the MAX will not be cleared for flight at least until May. Link to story.

15 March 2019: On the other hand, CNBC states Boeing will have the anti-stall software update for the MAX ready in ten days, and that the FAA is expected to sign off on the modification on March 25, 2019.

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Boeing 737 MAX 8 crashes and effects on AA 737 MAX 8s (NOT reaccommodation)

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Old Nov 27, 2019, 7:08 am
  #736  
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As I read it there is still no expected date to return this a/c to service and the FAA has refused (so far) to allow deliveries to commence again in January.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 7:24 am
  #737  
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Originally Posted by N830MH

Great news! FAA says it will handle all approvals for new 737-MAX.

Boeing will resuming deliveries the 737-MAX aircraft to the airlines in December. They will put back to service in January.

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...jets/40714421/
Your summary of the article is not accurate. Yes, the FAA says it will handle approval of all "new" 737-MAX. But while Boeing has expressed a desire to resume deliveries in December the article pretty clearly indicates that the FAA is NOT agreeing to that timetable and, reading between the lines, is very unlikely to agree.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 9:05 am
  #738  
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Another take home message from the article is that Boeing is still pressuring FAA to re-certify the MAX quickly.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 9:11 am
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Originally Posted by nk15
Another take home message from the article is that Boeing is still pressuring FAA to re-certify the MAX quickly.
No surprise there. We're quickly approaching a one-year forced grounding. Pretty wild.

I'm sure the Boeing team wishes they would have spent that year working on proper certification and operational capabilities before deliveries started at this point.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 11:48 am
  #740  
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I will be fascinated to see how the reintroduction will be handled. I am assuming (you can disagree, but I am assuming) that the plane will be safe once it is fully re-certified. But the universe of people who are concerned about this plane are not confined to FT. So how do they handle? I assume it will be given a new name. I assume it will be given some favorable promotional coverage. I assume airlines will not discount flights flown by this equipment. But will the allow free changes when a list minute substitution puts this equipment on the line instead of something else? Will there be class action litigation seeking refunds?
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 12:32 pm
  #741  
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Originally Posted by sbrower
I will be fascinated to see how the reintroduction will be handled. I am assuming (you can disagree, but I am assuming) that the plane will be safe once it is fully re-certified. But the universe of people who are concerned about this plane are not confined to FT. So how do they handle? I assume it will be given a new name. I assume it will be given some favorable promotional coverage. I assume airlines will not discount flights flown by this equipment. But will the allow free changes when a list minute substitution puts this equipment on the line instead of something else? Will there be class action litigation seeking refunds?
My understanding at least at United is that they will offer customers the ability to change flights should they unexpectedly find themselves on a MAX.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 1:22 pm
  #742  
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I'm going to assume that AA will do same as UA. However, I disagree to some huge issue for the airlines. Most people don't know the difference between a 788 and a 319, are too absorb in social media, and have the recall of a gnat. Yes there will be some flyers that will demand a free change in flight or refund but I don't see it as overwhelming.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 1:37 pm
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
I'm going to assume that AA will do same as UA. However, I disagree to some huge issue for the airlines. Most people don't know the difference between a 788 and a 319, are too absorb in social media, and have the recall of a gnat. Yes there will be some flyers that will demand a free change in flight or refund but I don't see it as overwhelming.
I wouldn't necessarily assume that. UA has both publically stated that they will allow customers to switch away from the MAX, and reports are that they actually did so for free before it was grounded. AA on the other hand not only has not stated that they would accommodate changes, but explicitly refused to do so before the USA grounding after many other countries had already grounded the aircraft...and their own flight attendants were allowed to switch schedules away from the MAX. Something to think about when booking.

I'm not saying it's wrong to fly on a MAX or to book AA, and I think the fixed plane will eventually be proven safe in the long run and I will fly it, but I am personally going to avoid the plane for some time after it restarts flying and I'm hesitant to book any ticket that could potentially be swapped onto one without (no-charge) recourse.
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Old Nov 27, 2019, 3:01 pm
  #744  
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
I'm going to assume that AA will do same as UA. However, I disagree to some huge issue for the airlines. Most people don't know the difference between a 788 and a 319, are too absorb in social media, and have the recall of a gnat. Yes there will be some flyers that will demand a free change in flight or refund but I don't see it as overwhelming.
Let’s look at some prior instances of terrible aircraft design that caused hull losses and many souls lost for precedence:

De Havilland Comet: stress cracks originating at corners of square windows led to explosive decompression at altitude. Aircraft was redesigned as necessary, Comet II through 4C flew successfully for a number of airlines. I flew on Comet 4Cs a number of times. And IMO this will hurt Boeing more than we know - from “797” development (some are even talking a new engine option 767!), whereas Airbus is already selling A321-XLR as their answer to mid-hauls.

Lockheed L-188 Electra: “whirl mode” phenomenon caused wing separation at altitude. Aircraft was redesigned as necessary. AA renamed its Electras “Electra II”. I flew on a ton of those, so to speak.

Douglas DC-10: ignoring standards of redundant control cables routing and faulty design of baggage door closure resulted in explosive decompression. Baggage door closure was redesigned, AA didn’t rename its aircraft - regardless of model, passengers knew them as “DC-10”, even after AA had a fatal accident after using non-approved maintenance procedures whilst removing engines. I flew on -10, -15 and -30 models a number of times.

737 MAX: “737 Advanced”? “Super 737”? We’ll see, once the FAA, CAA and a number of other nation’s and the EU aviation certification agencies complete recertification. That certainly won’t be next month. Boeing will not get off easily for their IMO greed-driven oversights.
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Old Dec 10, 2019, 7:37 pm
  #745  
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FAA issues new rules for operations 737-MAX jets.

FAA issues new rules for the operation of 737 MAX jets ? Explore the sky above

The public has 30 days to comment on the document. Boeing is finalizing changes to a flight-control system linked to two crashes, in Indonesia and Ethiopia, that killed 346 people. The manufacturer is also altering the plane’s flight-control computers after tests showed they were vulnerable to failure.

The company must complete an audit of the software changes and test the revised system in flight simulators with a variety of pilots. In addition to signing off on the redesign, the FAA is devising new pilot training.

One of the more technical steps in the process is to revise what’s known as the Master Minimum Equipment List, which lays out conditions under which an operator can fly the aircraft with a variety of malfunctions.

Major breakdowns require that a plane get fixed before the flight, but airlines can fly with relatively minor malfunctions if there are adequate backups and repairs are performed within a prescribed time.
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Old Dec 11, 2019, 3:48 pm
  #746  
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https://www.flightglobal.com/air-tra...135744.article

FAA will not certify 737 Max in 2019: FAA chief


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Old Dec 13, 2019, 4:13 am
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"American Airlines pulled the 737 Max from its schedules until April 7 (2020), making it more than a full year since the grounding before it expects to fly the planes again. — link to CNBC article"

This is becoming a sad joke, if you can even call it that. I hope for Boeing and all the passengers that rely on their engineering prowess to fly safely that they have a skunk works project going on to replace the 737 MAX sooner than later and convert much of the backlog to a completely new designed aircraft for this segment. Of course it will take years, but so is the backlog.
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Old Dec 13, 2019, 8:08 am
  #748  
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Originally Posted by teemuflyer
"American Airlines pulled the 737 Max from its schedules until April 7 (2020), making it more than a full year since the grounding before it expects to fly the planes again. — link to CNBC article"

This is becoming a sad joke, if you can even call it that. I hope for Boeing and all the passengers that rely on their engineering prowess to fly safely that they have a skunk works project going on to replace the 737 MAX sooner than later and convert much of the backlog to a completely new designed aircraft for this segment. Of course it will take years, but so is the backlog.
You have to wonder what is really going on. I constantly read reports that the FAA is getting close to re-certifying the a/c and then suddenly it's back in limbo. Seems as though there's more going on than meets the eye. I have to wonder will this plane every fly again?
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Old Dec 13, 2019, 11:00 am
  #749  
 
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Originally Posted by JDiver
The MAX will fly again.
Perhaps. But I won't be on it.
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Old Dec 13, 2019, 11:55 am
  #750  
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Originally Posted by catcher1
Perhaps. But I won't be on it.
I'll be willing to fly it 2 years after it returns to service, myself. But, until then, I will go out of way to avoid the MAX. My sense is that airlines have also figured that a lot of their customers --even infrequent flyers, who usually have no clue at all about what type of plane the're on-- are intent upon staying clear. These sentiments, whether or not rationally justified, will have a significant impact on the marketability of MAX (to both airlines, and passengers).
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