How much has EQD thinned EXP ranks?
Aug 25, 2018, 5:20 pm
#16
Join Date: May 2017
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 369
I have good luck with upgrades out of SFO (around 24k rolling EQD), but haven't cleared an ORD upgrade in probably 1.5 yrs. I've been buying J outright lately give how small the difference is. I can sometimes get as low as a $630 R/T J fare.
Aug 25, 2018, 5:38 pm
#18
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: AZ
Programs: AA Exec Plat; Marriott Plat; HHonors Diamond; Hertz PC
Posts: 213
That has not been my experience. I live here and the last few years my upgrade % has been going down. Its worse Oct through April for sure. Any flight to DFW, ORD or DCA is impossible for me to get upgraded on these days out of PHX. I will grant that places like MSP, DTW and SEA have good %s.
Aug 25, 2018, 5:40 pm
#19
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: AZ
Programs: AA Exec Plat; Marriott Plat; HHonors Diamond; Hertz PC
Posts: 213
I'm showing around 55% at $15k EQDs for the year plus whatever the remainder would be for rolling 12 months so I'd estimate around $20K EQDs. I'd say I'm down a bit but I have been doing a few more PHX-ORD-PHX which seems impossible as well as a few more 319s which only has the 8F seats. I'm down from 2017 but contribute that to change in flight patterns. Overall, I'm probably not seeing a ton of impact from the change.
Aug 25, 2018, 7:11 pm
#20
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Betting that it's these kinda metrics that AA is monitoring (elites buying J and F fares) as they may rework the EQD requirement in the not so distant future... Talk about "devaluation" and the bubble effect (short term) that it may have with AA elites...
Aug 25, 2018, 7:23 pm
#21
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: RDU
Programs: AA LT Gold, DL SM, HY Disc, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 12,505
I bailed out because while I'd probably be able to barely get the MQDs with some BA flights, I'd be at the bottom of the upgrade bin for EXP instead of at the top like I was when earliest purchase date was a tiebreaker. That was going to cut my upgrade percentage at least in half. So I bailed out all the way and went for the much easier BA Silver, and spend what I would have spent on mileage runs and Admirals Club access on buying up to F when reasonably priced. That also lets me diversify between AA, DL (was Plat, fell to Gold due to an illness, will get back to Plat in October), and ultra-short-haul stuff on WN like MDW-CVG or SMF-BUR. DL has much more C+ vs. AA's MCE, and it has some pretty easy upgrades on CR9s and E175s as well.
Aug 25, 2018, 7:35 pm
#22
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2001
Location: MEL CHC
Posts: 21,016
Some pax are continually moving from 1 ffp to another ffp, so a net change of zero.
The grass in not always greener on the other side
Aug 25, 2018, 8:17 pm
#23
Join Date: Feb 2014
Location: Frensham, Lincolnshire
Programs: RFC
Posts: 5,084
Am I the only PLT that gets upgrades more often than not?! I get them well over 75% of the time. Last year was right on 75%, but this year has been higher - only 2 I can think of off hand that haven't upgraded. The majority of my flights are booked 3-6 months in advance, but the dates *always* move 2-10 days when I get to ~14 days out. Mind you, I'm not flying out of a hub. Through them plenty, but not originating from them.
Aug 25, 2018, 10:08 pm
#24
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: IAH
Programs: UA Gold, AA Plat Pro, Hilton Diamond, SPG Gold, IHG Plat Elite, Hertz Pres Circle
Posts: 32
Am I the only PLT that gets upgrades more often than not?! I get them well over 75% of the time. Last year was right on 75%, but this year has been higher - only 2 I can think of off hand that haven't upgraded. The majority of my flights are booked 3-6 months in advance, but the dates *always* move 2-10 days when I get to ~14 days out. Mind you, I'm not flying out of a hub. Through them plenty, but not originating from them.
Aug 25, 2018, 11:07 pm
#25
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: NYC, SLC, LAX
Programs: AA EXP, UA Plat
Posts: 3,951
My upgrade percentage is also up - I'm also SF based and am batting 92% this year; compared to about 75% under the old system. Have about 26-27k rolling EQD and routinely get the upgrades 100 hours in advance now too, which is nice, even on the usually hard SFO-DFW-SFO routes. Also haven't missed a transcon upgrade yet this year. It's been a good 2018
My upg rate rate dropped slightly from last year but it’s still about 75%. I suspect if my EQD figure were higher I’d be better off.
Aug 26, 2018, 1:55 am
#26
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: RBK
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 128
Same here on the paid F/J. I'm 6'4", 280#, and Y is not a viable option for me. Fortunately, SAN, SNA, LGB, LAX and ONT are all within an hours drive, and with that much selection, I can usually find a F/J within a couple hundred dollars of a Y.
Last edited by jeffeverde; Aug 26, 2018 at 2:07 am
Aug 26, 2018, 8:26 am
#27
Join Date: Sep 2012
Location: Sun Prairie, WI
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, HH Diamond, National Executive
Posts: 1,786
Aug 26, 2018, 8:33 am
#28
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: DCA
Programs: UA LT 1K, AA EXP, Bonvoy LT Titan, Avis PC, Hilton Gold
Posts: 9,658
My upgrade rate has dropped to near zero as EXP. On one flight DFW-DCA - I was number 15 on the upgrade list out of 20 EXPs on the list - so I am still a good bit above the min. spend. Seems like for many flights I am around 8 on the list. I think you need to be in the $30K plus spend range to have a chance (but still below CK range).
More people are buying F (me included if I want F) because of the lower F prices. I have even had a RT price out to be cheaper for return in F (versus a cheap return in coach).
I suspect those experiencing upgrade grains are higher spend EXPs who buy tickets close in to departure date. And this bump up for them is do to list ordering by spend versus the previous time of ticketing.
More people are buying F (me included if I want F) because of the lower F prices. I have even had a RT price out to be cheaper for return in F (versus a cheap return in coach).
I suspect those experiencing upgrade grains are higher spend EXPs who buy tickets close in to departure date. And this bump up for them is do to list ordering by spend versus the previous time of ticketing.
Aug 26, 2018, 8:52 am
#29
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
In my informal, non-scientific poll of people in first, more people are buying f/c tickets. Did it myself for a flight from CMH -> LAX given the duration of flight & price difference.
Aug 26, 2018, 9:07 am
#30
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,003
YMMV.
