PlatinumScum

I think this is a case of dueling, uncoordinated algorithms. I've definitely seen situations where (2-class) front-cabin availability is reduced because Y is oversold, and the GA has to clear a bunch of upgrades at the gate. So with the assumption this is a thing, I suspect the chain of events goes something like:

1. RM (either a person or an algorithm) makes the decision to oversell Y on a 2-class flight. Y availability it bumped up and J availability is reduced. (This seems to indicate that AA's inventory management system is unable to "marry" availability in different cabins together, so they are unable to offer both Y and J fares for the same "seat.")
2. The algorithm that manages upgrade availability only sees the reduced J availability. It doesn't have access to the fact that J availability is artificially restricted.

Someone somewhere in AA is likely aware of this disconnect, but they've made the decision that the costs of fixing it outweigh the costs of the current system.

C17PSGR

I disagree there is a disconnect in the RM process ...I believe AA's RM system does marry cabins together.

Right now, that flight is showing F1, J2, W7, Y4. AA is not selling any discounted F or J seats, and if someone wants to sit in F or J, they'll need to pay full fare. There are a ton of unassigned seats in Y but I suspect its actually oversold in Y if it is Y4. They know someone will miss their flight and that they have some elites they can upgrade from Y to W. They also know how many SWU's are pending to get into J.

Unfortunately, for those of us who want are SWU's to clear early, it looks like AA's strategy was right on the money.

And ... the gate agent on this flight will be hopping tomorrow! Its likely there will be people at the gate with unassigned seats .. the gate agent will need to be moving people into W (hopefully elites and not those with discount tickets from an OTA who didn't get an assigned seat) then a couple of SWU's at the last minute.

PlatinumScum

I don't think that we disagree. The process is definitely broken (or at least suboptimal). My point was that I don't think that AA set out to make things work this way; it's just an unintended consequence of the way other processes interact.

Nah. The GA will just fill those J seats with the Y pax who don't have seat assignments (plus the obligatory non-revs). Easy peasy.

More seriously, I believe that this is the biggest issue with the current situation. Dumping a ton of extra work on the gate agents hardly seems like a recipe for on-time departures. (I won't even mention customer satisfaction, because #GoingForGreat .)

ijgordon

Yes, absolutely! That was my reference to the dozens of variables that we as FTers can't comprehend, upthread.
It's like we're trying to summarize in a few paragraphs what AA has probably built millions of lines of code for over the past several decades...

PresRDC

I look at this from the perspective of a paid J traveler. I don't want upgrades to clear in advance of a flight. Why? Because my plans are highly dynamic. I often need to travel with less than 24 hours notice and rarely return home from a trip on the day I had originally planned. If there are no available seats on the flights I need, then the flexibility of a J ticket is useless to me. You don't need your upgrade until the flight boards. If they upgrade you early and I cannot get a paid seat, I have to book elsewhere and that is a revenue loss for AA. I am actually surprised they ever upgrade in advance of departure.

ijgordon

How many J seats do you need???

enpremiere

You know a guy?

QueenOfCoach

Exactly. I do this sort of thing for a living, but not in the airline industry. I am a database admin. We take giant amounts of data and distill it into forecasts. We also track forecasts turning into actuals as time progresses to check and refine our work. It's complicated.

The overall goal is to maximize revenue.

rubikcube

C17PSGR

I'm not usually a paid J traveler, but sometimes a domestic paid F traveler and understand your point.

I think AA has a pretty good sense of how to plan for that, which is why the plane tomorrow is J2 without any discount J fares or upgrades available. On the other hand, if I'm flying to Dublin on a Wednesday night and they haven't sold any J seats, they know they can upgrade me and keep an EXP customer.happy. Unfortunately, for the EXP's of the world, AA would be making a mistake to upgrade early on this route, even though it would personally benefit me.

DoctorORD

A good handful of people must have cleared SWU's in the past 10-12 hours... the cabin is now no longer undersold by any means for tomorrow morning's flight. I don't think there is anything wrong with AA's RM strategy, as it still encourages people (well, corporate accounts) to buy business class fares and not rely on upgrade instruments as any sort of guarantee. At the end of the day, it is still win-win for both AA and for passengers -- if the loads are light and you have an upgrade instrument, you'll get upgraded, even if it's at the airport or within hours of departure. Contrast with United where you have to buy a specific fare class to even be able to use your GPU's, even if there are available seats up front.

ijgordon

mcrw00

JJeffrey

Definitely not all moot, call AA and get rebooked onto another option on JL or CX etc. now...

mcrw00