Fanjet

FCO is the perfect example in the drop-off in demand. AA operates 5 flights to FCO in the peak months (PHL/JFK/CLT/ORD/DFW), 1 flight in the winter months (PHL).

PRG is really a tourist-driven market. Even CSA pulled their service to New York and Toronto a decade ago.

Jacob02

This year, PRG has been upgraded to the 332 (still seasonal).

Any perspectives on how the route is doing in 2019 and when/if a 788 replacement is likely in the future? Random bookings suggest fares are high - seems like the route is popular? Might AA consider another seasonal route to/from PRG, possibly from the West Coast (say LAX)?

Antarius

AA doesn't even fly LAX-CDG or LAX-MAD. Even if PHL-PRG is doing well, there is no chance they would launch a west coast flight.

Jacob02

The competitive environment is very different, though! There is no alternative between Prague and the West Coast, aside from LAX-WAW and LAX-VIE flights with LOT and Austrian, respectively (on a 789 and 772).

LAX is among top unserved long-haul markets out of PRG: https://www.prg.aero/en/node/5156 Of course, I know starting a new long-haul flight takes more than just a handful of tourists so am curious about the threshold for starting any such route. On that note, wasn't the 788 built for thinner routes like this one?

Long Train Runnin

I flew it on Thursday night 5/23 leading into Memorial Day weekend.

It wasn't full in J, W or Y.

I would say J was less then ~50%

I was on a mileage sAAver ticket.

So that is my .02 on the flight.

Jacob02

Thanks for sharing. That's not the best news. I wonder why fares have been so relatively high (making connections via LHR, for instance, more attractive).

PHL

You'd have to check DOT stats on LAX-XXX-PRG routings to really get a picture of the true demand. If DL only serves it from JFK seasonally, why would AA get better results from PHL year round? Both are probably relying on a good bit of connecting tourist traffic. PRG doesn't strike me as a year round business destination. In the meantime, you'd have to continue to route through LHR, FRA and other gateways served from LAX.

carlosdca

There is at least 12 different ways to get to PRG year round from LAX with one stop and 2hrs or less legal connection.
LAX-LHR-PRG, LAX-MUC-PRG, LAX-FRA-PRG, LAX-CDG-PRG, LAX-ZRH-PRG, LAX-AMS-PRG (more than one possible itinerary for some of these).
and there are also many other options once you start looking at longer layovers or 2 stops.

LAX-LHR on AA's 77W J is pretty sweet. The connection to LHR-PRG on BA is not that bad as it is the same terminal (T3) and no bus required.

arlflyer

My hypothesis about these European leisure routes has been that AA probably sells a bunch of tickets through travel agencies and other bulk channels (e.g. targeting cruisers), and thus the off-the-shelf fares are more about maximizing revenue from the odd one-offs that actually need to get there for some important reason. AA does have profit-sharing with BA, so it gets a bit if people go that way. And if it can grab a big chunk from the cost-no-object folks who need to go direct (e.g. for business), then they probably figure, why not?

AA100k

cpdc1030

There's a lot of business demand to/from PRG, it's not all tourists taking selfies in Wenceslas Square. However AA with a seasonal flight is not capturing much of that traffic.

There's quite a booming tech sector (which extents to Brno as well). The early morning PRG-LHR flight is almost exclusively connecting business pax, connecting to BA & AA. Once there were only three suitcases on the belt when I flew that route O&D.

Jacob02

For tomorrow's mid-week PHL-PRG flight, I see the following open seats on AA.com:

2 out of 20 are open in J
10 out of 21 are open W
35 out of 206 are open in Y

In short, the flight is 81% full with a very solid occupancy in J. This is a mid-week flight before holidays start in the Czech Republic, making me think the route is starting to do very well. Also, fares are rather high compared to other EU connections to North America.

One day later, there are only 3 business class seats available, 15 premium economy seats available (might this cabin need better marketing/prices?), and 30 seats available in economy. On Friday, June 28, business is fully booked, with 1 seat available in W and 26 seats available in Y (89% full).

It seems to me that while there is certainly potential to grow, the route is doing very well. I would personally be thrilled if AA considered an extension of its service to PRG throughout the year, potentially on the 788 during the off-season when they get additional deliveries. Together, with Qatar and British Airways, oneworld can provide the much needed long-haul feeder flights to/from PRG to the rest of the world.

caburrito

The summer jump between 2016 and 2017 is crazy, I was there for a few nights in the summer of 2016. I know Korean Airline had a stake in Czech Airlines with direct flights to/from Seoul. Looks like they sold it recently since Czech Airlines started turning a profit.

DWFI

Yes but if AA is selling those seats in J at $2000 apiece roundtrip to some travel agency for Danube cruises, that's not a particularly profitable situation to be in.
Sadly we can only speculate. I too have seen excellent loads in the J cabin (to the point where at T-30 days, many flights were booked 22-26 of 28 in J, whereas JFKLHR flights were booked only 12-18 of 60 in J), but it just doesn't mean anything on its own.

arlflyer

Bingo. Loads <> revenue <> profit. But utilization of existing assets is always a good thing as long as there's some contribution coming of it. If you have a fleet of old aircraft, it's best to keep them flying somewhere, as long as you can clear the variable costs. I'm not saying that they're flying PRG as a "least bad" route option by any means; it may indeed be very profitable. But, absent data, intuition doesn't tell me that it would be a high-yield business route.

The other thing to keep in mind is that AA's strategy is that of a network carrier. The strength is in the network, not in the individual routes. So if AA having some lower-yielding leisure routes is keeping a profitable customer segment happy (e.g. by allowing them to redeem miles or take their families on vacation), then there is strategic value there.