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What's Happening to Domestic F Prices?

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Old Jun 13, 2018, 10:22 pm
  #1  
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What's Happening to Domestic F Prices?

I was wondering if anyone else has noticed changes to how AA is pricing discounted domestic first class fares. I admittedly haven't booked many tickets in the last few weeks but am noticing a few changes.

One is that pricing for I and maybe also D fares seems to have come down - for example up through at least this spring BOS-LAX OW fares for the last year have priced at $1K+ for all fares, including in I (in spite of Mint!) but now looking forward that has come down to $675.

Second is that there no longer appears to be a "spread" between the Y and the J fare for any given flight. In the past it always felt like there was a flat "up-charge" between whatever the Y fare was and first. So for example if the spread was $150, then if a ticket in coach cost $200 first would be $350, and if coach were $250, then first would be $400 etc. But now that pricing scheme no longer holds.

Take ORD-BOS in two weeks in the below image. There are two flights with I ($256 OW) and two flights with D ($323 one way). But those same flights have different fares available in coach. The result is that the 5pm flight is now a ridiculous bargain (you basically breakeven on the bag alone, let alone the meal, drinks, and extra space) while the 635pm is much more expensive on a relative basis at a $140 differential between first and coach.

Honestly this feels more like what I'm used to seeing with UA but was wondering whether it's new or just something I haven't observed before.

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Old Jun 14, 2018, 12:29 am
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Not sure about coach fares, but buying domestic F on 2-3 trips per month. About the same as last year +/- 20%, for my common destinations.

You are looking at significant price drop, is this just the BOS - LAX ? Just $30 for ORD-BOS fare difference seems very low, too. Are other routings of yours low? Perhaps I need to modify my connections.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 7:20 am
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BOS-LAX is a competitive market with JetBlue, United, Alaska and AA all flying nonstops (unusual for Boston where on most routes there are at most two carriers on any given route). JetBlue prices Mint starting at $399 (most flights offer some seats at $599) so I'm guessing that the competition is forcing the AA F fares down, and that this example is route-specific, probably not indicative of a broader change.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 7:36 am
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Originally Posted by MikeBOS
BOS-LAX is a competitive market with JetBlue, United, Alaska and AA all flying nonstops ...
And Delta. Lots of airline pricing is dynamic - 13-15 coach fare buckets with real-time availability across dozens of published fares. There's no reason F cabin should have static pricing. Carriers will get what they can for it rather than giving it away.

Yes, I believe pricing is very much route and time-of-day specific.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:26 am
  #5  
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I find on a common ~1100 mile midcon route I fly that the difference between cheapest coach and discount F is about $180 (one way). Sometimes I will bite because it otherwise costs $120 worth of e-upgrade certs. Paying the extra $60, of course, gives the higher EQM and EQD, which is maybe part of the reason the fares are closer to each other sometimes.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 8:29 am
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What is not shown in the OP's post is date of travel. With 4th of July coming up (OP states travel in two weeks), very limited business travelers during that time. Very common to see reduced F fares during low business travel dates.
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Old Jun 14, 2018, 12:17 pm
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Thanks for all the responses everyone. Yes this is travel the weekend before July 4th but still was surprised to see such dramatic fluctuations in the differential to buy-up to first, since I've never seen it like that before, even when the underlying Y and J buckets for different flights are not the same.

As for BOS-LAX, I agree I'm sure this is due to the competitive pressures on the route. To be clear, AA was consistently pricing even the I bucket north of $1K for the better part of the last year, even when B6, UA and DL were pricing much lower and regardless of whether B6 was call it $399 on an unsold day or ~$1K for a heavily sold day. They must have finally realized the grossly uncompetitive nature of their pricing and course corrected - now all I can hope for is this gambit to also fail and for them to finally put a better product on the route.
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 1:59 pm
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For the times and places I travel, it seems F fares have gone up a bit. I used to easily change a refundable ticket into an non-refundable F for a minimal charge (sometimes as low as $35 for SMF-BWI, for example), but I haven't been able to do that for a year now. It seems most fares I see book into D.
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 4:24 pm
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It really depends on the route. From Jan-Jun this year I've been able to LAX-IND for 700-800 with 2 months advance. July was up to the 900-1000 range and checking Aug it is 1000+. Even looking at late Sept the lowest is 900. So for my route, F has gone up.
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 6:13 pm
  #10  
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Selling F at a premium comes after years of giving it away as a freebie UG. In that model, F was priced out of reach of most travelers, it was empty and thus the seats filled with the carrier's elites. Not anymore.

Better to sell a TCON at a $100 premium than a $1,500 premium, not sell it and give it away.
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Old Jun 15, 2018, 6:33 pm
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If I could purchase an F upgrade for $30 after buying coach per my employer's policy, I surely would. But if the $30 difference is only available at initial purchase, I can't bite.

Surely AA knows this?
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Old Jun 16, 2018, 3:16 am
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Originally Posted by DenverBrian
If I could purchase an F upgrade for $30 after buying coach per my employer's policy, I surely would. But if the $30 difference is only available at initial purchase, I can't bite.

Surely AA knows this?

IIRC, after your coach seat is ticketed, you can call AA and upfare your coach seat to first for just the price difference with no change fee.
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Old Jun 16, 2018, 8:03 am
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Originally Posted by HofstraJet



IIRC, after your coach seat is ticketed, you can call AA and upfare your coach seat to first for just the price difference with no change fee.
Good to know. Clunky, but maybe I'll try it.
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Old Jun 16, 2018, 8:24 am
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Originally Posted by DenverBrian
If I could purchase an F upgrade for $30 after buying coach per my employer's policy, I surely would. But if the $30 difference is only available at initial purchase, I can't bite.

Surely AA knows this?
AA knows this very well and, along with most carriers, does this because it pushes employers stuck in the dark ages to do something for employees which costs close to nothing:

1. Tickets Paid by Employer - Employee may provide a personal CC to the corporate TA. Corporate TA charges whatever the allowable amount is to the corporate account and the balance to the personal account.

2. Tickets Paid by Employee - Employee submits ticket receipt for partial reimbursement in the amount of the allowable amount.

The entire purpose of corporate accounts is to shift the workload to the corporate TA and doing this keeps the workflow where it belongs. Thus, a hassle to do it the old-fashioned way.
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Old Jun 16, 2018, 8:36 am
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For flights that are only 2 weeks out, there will likely be a fair number of advance bookings and cases where one flight is heavily booked in coach, but not F and vice-versa. So it's not at all unusual to expect cases where there will be bucket availability in lower coach classes, but not F and the reverse leading to various fare differentials across flights. As you look at flights further out, there is going to be fewer advance bookings and you will likely find a more consistent fare differentials as there will mostly be bucket availability in both the lowest coach and lowest F classes across flights.
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