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F7 Two days out on transcon LAX/SFO-JFK and no saaver?

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F7 Two days out on transcon LAX/SFO-JFK and no saaver?

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Old Apr 21, 2018, 4:03 pm
  #31  
 
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Additionally, the idea that things are more profitable without redemptions (even if the cabin is full) ignores the sales of miles to banks. AA thinks that once the mile sales drop enough, they can put out a little bit of crappy connecting flight availability in Y and folks will start using AA cards again. I know a lot of people who use affinity cards, almost all of them had an AA card at one time and no-one puts spend on them anymore unless they have Silver Aviator or CitiExecutive and are chasing EQMs and EQDs.

I personally think they will feel that loss of revenue pretty soon.
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 4:19 pm
  #32  
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Originally Posted by arlflyer
This.

They may not do a ton of revenue F, but they can sell the heck out of corporate J and flexible Y on those routes. Roll 'em over and you have an extra 7-10 J/Y tix you can sell.

As someone with AA miles to use I don't like it either, but that's business...
But coach is empty
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 6:25 pm
  #33  
 
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They are withholding seats for awards not because the planes fill up, but they want to break the expectation of saver awards, so we book anytime awards.
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 7:20 pm
  #34  
 
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Originally Posted by lobo411
I'm saying AAdvantage is a shadow of its former self. Where they once had very good award availability, they now have almost none. It's the same--that is, awful--at T-330 as it is at T-1.
While I generally agree I will say that recently I have noticed anecdotally that some saver inventory does now exist. At least on certain routes. But definitely in "off" peak times. It is no where as good as it used to be or IMHO where it should be but it has slightly improved.

And yes, I am sure people will be able to give evidence on where it has not improved (or gotten worse), I am just saying my gut feel is that the some changes are happening.
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 9:29 pm
  #35  
 
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Well it's now T-18 and AA 276, AA 18, AA 20 are all still F7. AA will sell an F seat for 95,000 miles or $2549. I suppose one could buy the miles from AA directly and still save on a cash fare.

I wonder if the change in accounting rules will force the beancounters to reconsider their position and try to get some of those miles off their books.
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 9:59 pm
  #36  
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Originally Posted by bangkokiscool
Well it's now T-18 and AA 276, AA 18, AA 20 are all still F7. AA will sell an F seat for 95,000 miles or $2549. I suppose one could buy the miles from AA directly and still save on a cash fare.

I wonder if the change in accounting rules will force the beancounters to reconsider their position and try to get some of those miles off their books.
Not to mention coach is very light, looks like less than half full in coach at best. Maybe tomorrow morning the algo will finally throw in the towel. Man vs Algo!
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Old Apr 21, 2018, 11:18 pm
  #37  
 
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Originally Posted by ChuckMango
Not to mention coach is very light, looks like less than half full in coach at best. Maybe tomorrow morning the algo will finally throw in the towel. Man vs Algo!
but J is 0 or 1, could be J is oversold
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 8:26 am
  #38  
 
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Having played this game of 'chicken' before on the transcons waiting for space to open, the sense I get is this is done manually...and that whomever is responsible to look at close in departures - doesn't work the weekend. There seems to be a much better job done during the week of adding close in award space vs. during Sat/Sun....ymmv.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 8:57 am
  #39  
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Originally Posted by nyc6035
Having played this game of 'chicken' before on the transcons waiting for space to open, the sense I get is this is done manually...and that whomever is responsible to look at close in departures - doesn't work the weekend. There seems to be a much better job done during the week of adding close in award space vs. during Sat/Sun....ymmv.
That would make sense actually.

Seems like they won't release any as its t-6 hrs to go... I think someone upthread is probably right that AA is truly trying to break the backs of anyone thinking of redeeming sAAver. Space is there (F7 x 3 flights) and no way they'll sell 21+ F seats in 6-10 hours on SFO-JFK today.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 9:17 am
  #40  
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Originally Posted by beachfan
Additionally, the idea that things are more profitable without redemptions (even if the cabin is full) ignores the sales of miles to banks. AA thinks that once the mile sales drop enough, they can put out a little bit of crappy connecting flight availability in Y and folks will start using AA cards again. I know a lot of people who use affinity cards, almost all of them had an AA card at one time and no-one puts spend on them anymore unless they have Silver Aviator or CitiExecutive and are chasing EQMs and EQDs.

I personally think they will feel that loss of revenue pretty soon.
Delta and UA have shown the growth of their card revenue. It's very big ($3 Billion for Delta, up 50% from 2014) and shows no signs of turning down.

I don't see much support for the idea that carriers need to make saver awards available for redemptions of sold miles.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 9:18 am
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by bangkokiscool
Well it's now T-18 and AA 276, AA 18, AA 20 are all still F7. AA will sell an F seat for 95,000 miles or $2549. I suppose one could buy the miles from AA directly and still save on a cash fare.

I wonder if the change in accounting rules will force the beancounters to reconsider their position and try to get some of those miles off their books.
This might be part of the answer. If they release a last minute saver award, it would be far cheaper to buy the miles and book the award than to pay for the cash fare. They may feel that doing so could undermine their opportunity to sell that seat for $2549..
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 9:26 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by bangkokiscool
Well it's now T-18 and AA 276, AA 18, AA 20 are all still F7. AA will sell an F seat for 95,000 miles or $2549. I suppose one could buy the miles from AA directly and still save on a cash fare.

I wonder if the change in accounting rules will force the beancounters to reconsider their position and try to get some of those miles off their books.
I don't know why. It's sitting on the balance sheet as deferred revenue, $4.1 Billion for Delta, about 10% of their 2017 total revenues. Check AA and UA balances.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 9:29 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
Delta and UA have shown the growth of their card revenue. It's very big ($3 Billion for Delta, up 50% from 2014) and shows no signs of turning down.

I don't see much support for the idea that carriers need to make saver awards available for redemptions of sold miles.
Things started to stall in 2017. Delta had Amex send out special offers to it's prior credit card holders waiving the once in a lifetime rules. They did that because revenue was up?

VFTW has a headline on a blog post a year ago quoting an AA SEC filing
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea...lines-profits/

And a more recent post discussing the issue. You might not agree, but the statement that there isn't much support for the argument doesn't seem grounded in fact.
https://viewfromthewing.boardingarea...ed-miles-fell/

United actually has redemptions available to a far greater degree.

Last edited by beachfan; Apr 22, 2018 at 9:50 am
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 9:44 am
  #44  
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Originally Posted by nyc6035
Having played this game of 'chicken' before on the transcons waiting for space to open, the sense I get is this is done manually...and that whomever is responsible to look at close in departures - doesn't work the weekend. There seems to be a much better job done during the week of adding close in award space vs. during Sat/Sun....ymmv.
ETA: Monday actually also has F5/6/7 and J5/6/7 on all LAX-JFK red-eyes and not one sAAver so ymmv indeed.
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Old Apr 22, 2018, 10:53 am
  #45  
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Originally Posted by ryan182
but J is 0 or 1, could be J is oversold

Eh, but F inventory would be reduced accordingly. They don't want to overbook *both* premium cabins!
(And of course this would be an instance where the F cabin seatmap could be unreliable, but if EF shows F7, then there are (at least) 7 unsold F seats, net of any overbookings in J.

It's not like AA never releases Z inventory. Looks like plenty over the next month on JFK-LAX, but I think you're more likely to find it on the off-hours flights that people are less likely to pay for in general (as opposed to just having a bunch of empty seats on a particular flight) -- e.g., Saturday afternoons on LAX-JFK. Probably because they don't want anyone conditioned to think they can just use miles (at the Saver level) at the last minute.

Last edited by ijgordon; Apr 22, 2018 at 11:02 am
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