Speculation: Widebody Business Class reductions coming?
#31
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My company is slowly moving in this direction - the historical policy of J for intercontinental greater than 6 hours has now been appended with an "encouragement" to use Premium Economy for daytime flights. This is being formalized on a departmental basis and admittedly does provide some cost savings on typical round trips from East Coast to UK if only the eastbound flight is in J.
#32
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I completely agree with the comment about BA long haul ... it seems to me that they have done a better job thinking through and segmenting what 4 service classes should look like. The rest of the private airlines have cannibalized their F by making J too ‘nice’ and now they are pre-emptively reducing J to avoid the same thing with W.
#33
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The AA J hard product is definitely competitive and on some aircraft one of the best, but the soft product (FAs who fling the service at the pax in the minimum time possible so that they can spend most of the flight chatting loudly in the galley about how bad AA is) is not competitive by a country mile. YMMV I suppose but this has been my -consistent- experience on many many dozens of J trips on AA with only rare exceptions where service is good. I've moved all of my paid J to foreign carriers for TATL and TPAC - AA just isn't close to even the likes of BA, QF or JL and not even in the same ballpark as SQ or CX.
#34
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The AA J hard product is definitely competitive and on some aircraft one of the best, but the soft product (FAs who fling the service at the pax in the minimum time possible so that they can spend most of the flight chatting loudly in the galley about how bad AA is) is not competitive by a country mile. YMMV I suppose but this has been my -consistent- experience on many many dozens of J trips on AA with only rare exceptions where service is good. I've moved all of my paid J to foreign carriers for TATL and TPAC - AA just isn't close to even the likes of BA, QF or JL and not even in the same ballpark as SQ or CX.
I guess that hasn't changed much since the merger and in the last few years. Soft product was always meh, the hard product used to be garbage and is now good.
#35
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The AA J hard product is definitely competitive and on some aircraft one of the best, but the soft product (FAs who fling the service at the pax in the minimum time possible so that they can spend most of the flight chatting loudly in the galley about how bad AA is) is not competitive by a country mile. YMMV I suppose but this has been my -consistent- experience on many many dozens of J trips on AA with only rare exceptions where service is good. I've moved all of my paid J to foreign carriers for TATL and TPAC - AA just isn't close to even the likes of BA, QF or JL and not even in the same ballpark as SQ or CX.
#36
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I too am surprised that it has taken AA as long as it has to introduce a Premium Economy seat on its planes. However, I think it is good from a pure competitiveness perspective in that it allows AA to compete with carriers such as CX, JL, QF who all have PE cabins or, with BA specifically on the TATL JV, to align their products more closely. After all, product alignment was one of the reasons AA started offering complimentary alcoholic beverages in Y on flights to the UK and also why lie-flat beds were introduced on those routes.
I would also argue that the PE cabin appeals to those who are perhaps affluent enough to afford more than Y but who can't stretch to buying a business class ticket. This is particularly true when it's a day flight. I will often fly J back to the UK overnight but will fly PE back to the US during the day, when I am less interested in sleeping.
For some people, cost is the defining factor and they will always take the cheapest option. They usually see the mode of transport as simply being a means to an end: you get from A to B. For others, myself included, the flight is an integral part of my trip and so the hard and soft product are factored in to the equation. On more modern aircraft, PE is actually a very pleasant environment and when you add in the benefits associated with the soft product it becomes an attractive proposition.
I would also argue that the PE cabin appeals to those who are perhaps affluent enough to afford more than Y but who can't stretch to buying a business class ticket. This is particularly true when it's a day flight. I will often fly J back to the UK overnight but will fly PE back to the US during the day, when I am less interested in sleeping.
For some people, cost is the defining factor and they will always take the cheapest option. They usually see the mode of transport as simply being a means to an end: you get from A to B. For others, myself included, the flight is an integral part of my trip and so the hard and soft product are factored in to the equation. On more modern aircraft, PE is actually a very pleasant environment and when you add in the benefits associated with the soft product it becomes an attractive proposition.
#37
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The AA J hard product is definitely competitive and on some aircraft one of the best, but the soft product (FAs who fling the service at the pax in the minimum time possible so that they can spend most of the flight chatting loudly in the galley about how bad AA is) is not competitive by a country mile. YMMV I suppose but this has been my -consistent- experience on many many dozens of J trips on AA with only rare exceptions where service is good. I've moved all of my paid J to foreign carriers for TATL and TPAC - AA just isn't close to even the likes of BA, QF or JL and not even in the same ballpark as SQ or CX.
#38
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Looking at this more strate at some stagegically over the past 25 years International F has all but disappeared, International J has become the new "First Class", and International PEY has become the new "Business Class". So, we are just seeing history repeat itself. I remember flying in "Business Class" seats in the 90's, which were very similar to today's PEY seats.
I predict that PEY will continue to increase in popularity and the number of seats will increase. J will decrease slightly to moderately in size. The new variable is the existence of Main Cabin Extra on International flights, essentially creating 4 cabins.
I predict that PEY will continue to increase in popularity and the number of seats will increase. J will decrease slightly to moderately in size. The new variable is the existence of Main Cabin Extra on International flights, essentially creating 4 cabins.
#39
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With due respect to Jon and JDiver, I'm not convinced. Even with the 789 J reductions I don't assume there is a single J to Y ratio that should apply across fleet types. AA is plenty big enough to have richer J types serve hubs that demand more J: London, Tokyo, LAX and JFK among them, if not PHL or CLT. AA could more heavily base the high J types in hubs that will pay.
#40
Join Date: Dec 2017
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Looking at this more strategically over the past 25 years International F has all but disappeared, International J has become the new "First Class", and International PEY has become the new "Business Class". So, we are just seeing history repeat itself. I remember flying in "Business Class" seats in the 90's, which were very similar to today's PEY seats.
I predict that PEY will continue to increase in popularity and the number of seats will increase. J will decrease slightly to moderately in size. The new variable is the existence of Main Cabin Extra on International flights, essentially creating 4 cabins.
I predict that PEY will continue to increase in popularity and the number of seats will increase. J will decrease slightly to moderately in size. The new variable is the existence of Main Cabin Extra on International flights, essentially creating 4 cabins.
For INTL configurations, you're looking at (77W excluded for now as it maintains an F cabin) a 3 cabin configuration of J/PE/Y.
On the DOM side, you're in a similar position with F/MCE/Y.
Whether MCE ends up with an actual physical division I cannot say. If they have the true MCE rows at the front of the main cabin it is possible, although most likely not probable.
Question being, what about the seats with the extra legroom that would fall outside of the defined 3-cabin approach? I would speculate that those simply become a preferred seat and will come at a small fee for the room but have no additional benefit. Thus not a true MCE, but simply a seat with a little more room. That being regardless of DOM or INTL configuration.
I suppose one line of thought would be that once they have a truly defined 3-cabin situation then they could simply move the J/PE labels into the domestic market. However I don't think that would be something seen as that could then lead to an expectation on the consumer side of a similar product. I think if this were to be the case that they would keep the names as is, which also helps differentiate when an INTL configuration is used domestically. (Even though now when they do it they call INTL J as DOM F.)
The main thing to all of this is being that MCE on an INTL configuration could lose its name and simply now be a preferred seat. While AA already has preferred seats for a small fee, the old MCE seats (like an exit row) would be a slightly higher fee. Still less than PE (or MCE domestically), of course.
This is my worthless prediction, and has been for the past couple of years...
Priced utility continues to be the factor driving consumer behavior in regards to premium travel purchase (F, J and PE included in "premium"). As noted above, we're seeing this odd regression through reclassifying the cabins from "First" to what is now "Business" and from what was business to what is now PE. As the seat technologies and efficiencies have caught up to what consumers really want (e.g. more space and on board amenity for a price just above economy = PE, direct aisle access, privacy and flatbed for a good price with competitive on board service = J), airlines are adjusting to meet this current "equilibrium" state in the market.
Many ride BA for their less-than-desired CW "dormitory" cabins, but I think BA gets the market right on this, to be honest. Since their J cabins are so dense, they can be very price competitive for a flat bed seat with premium on board services and amenities. I know that whenever I choose a ticket to TLV from DFW, I'm not willing to pay more than $250 more to fly 1-2-1 AA vs. 2-4-2 BA in paid J for a similar itinerary.
AA (and many others) rightly made a decision to go with a more private 1-2-1 direct-aisle product for J. Because of this, the value of their product is higher than BA's. They also have to sell it higher because there are less seats in the same space of the aircraft. This makes them less price competitive for the person simply looking for 5-6 hours of sleep on a work trip to Europe, e.g.
I wonder, and almost expect to see, if the international LCC's will soon adopt a very primitive flat-bed J cabin that is both dense and spartan in amenities provided. If they can figure out how to fit 35 flat beds into the forward part of a 789 (Norwegian has 35 recliners there right now), why wouldn't they refit and sell those? It, again, forces price utility decisions on the consumer. There are more and more of us flying either corporately or out of our own pockets who simply want a flat bed and some level of added personal space for a right price. The food, wine, etc. is very secondary for me. I believe Tim Clark at Emirates has spoken about this for the airline industry's future as well.
Lastly, because the international market has become so competitive and FF programs so devalued, consumers and businesses are making more decisions on price, schedule and value than ever before.
All of this to say, I think AA is right to find competitive advantages with less J seats at a higher level of seat and service, and buttress that with bigger PE cabins.
Ultimately, time will tell.
Priced utility continues to be the factor driving consumer behavior in regards to premium travel purchase (F, J and PE included in "premium"). As noted above, we're seeing this odd regression through reclassifying the cabins from "First" to what is now "Business" and from what was business to what is now PE. As the seat technologies and efficiencies have caught up to what consumers really want (e.g. more space and on board amenity for a price just above economy = PE, direct aisle access, privacy and flatbed for a good price with competitive on board service = J), airlines are adjusting to meet this current "equilibrium" state in the market.
Many ride BA for their less-than-desired CW "dormitory" cabins, but I think BA gets the market right on this, to be honest. Since their J cabins are so dense, they can be very price competitive for a flat bed seat with premium on board services and amenities. I know that whenever I choose a ticket to TLV from DFW, I'm not willing to pay more than $250 more to fly 1-2-1 AA vs. 2-4-2 BA in paid J for a similar itinerary.
AA (and many others) rightly made a decision to go with a more private 1-2-1 direct-aisle product for J. Because of this, the value of their product is higher than BA's. They also have to sell it higher because there are less seats in the same space of the aircraft. This makes them less price competitive for the person simply looking for 5-6 hours of sleep on a work trip to Europe, e.g.
I wonder, and almost expect to see, if the international LCC's will soon adopt a very primitive flat-bed J cabin that is both dense and spartan in amenities provided. If they can figure out how to fit 35 flat beds into the forward part of a 789 (Norwegian has 35 recliners there right now), why wouldn't they refit and sell those? It, again, forces price utility decisions on the consumer. There are more and more of us flying either corporately or out of our own pockets who simply want a flat bed and some level of added personal space for a right price. The food, wine, etc. is very secondary for me. I believe Tim Clark at Emirates has spoken about this for the airline industry's future as well.
Lastly, because the international market has become so competitive and FF programs so devalued, consumers and businesses are making more decisions on price, schedule and value than ever before.
All of this to say, I think AA is right to find competitive advantages with less J seats at a higher level of seat and service, and buttress that with bigger PE cabins.
Ultimately, time will tell.
I wouldn't say this prediction is worthless. Looking back you're spot on. J is what F used to be, and PE is what J used to be when it was introduced.
My suspicion with this, and all 3 US carriers are doing it, is that they don't want their F product to be compared to the likes of EY or EK for example, nor do they want to invest in significantly improving their F product even up to an AF or LH, and certainly not to a level of the ME carriers.
Thus they work to rebrand business into their top cabin, and by keeping it at a business level they at least have a better chance to compete on the hard product. AA's J hard product is now competitive (minor exclusions aside in rare cases) across most of the widebody aircraft, DL has their D1 product rolling along, and UA will (eventually) get their Polaris rolled out.
All business, no first, with the exception of AA's 77W. How long they maintain those 8 seats is anyone's guess, but I suspect they will for a while as I can't see them leaving FL Dining just to the JFK-LAX/SFO route. I suppose the real tell in this will be when DFW/LHR/PHL FL lounges come online. If they do not also have the dining (or it could easily be blended into the rest of the lounge) then it may be the sign that INTL F on AA could be going away.
I don't think that will be the case, but it wouldn't surprise me 5 years from now.
While I'm not sure what role PE plays in all of this as far as numbers go, I would think they would have to end up being competitive to those who also offer PE cabins on the same routes. Of course those competitors will also have an F cabin, so they can't really being to start bumping the price of J towards F, nor PE towards J.
Lots of ins, lots of outs, lots of whathaveyous going on. I guess we'll see what happens and how the US3 try to keep up while bowing out of the INTL F game.
#41
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With due respect to Jon and JDiver, I'm not convinced. Even with the 789 J reductions I don't assume there is a single J to Y ratio that should apply across fleet types. AA is plenty big enough to have richer J types serve hubs that demand more J: London, Tokyo, LAX and JFK among them, if not PHL or CLT. AA could more heavily base the high J types in hubs that will pay.
#42
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With due respect to Jon and JDiver, I'm not convinced. Even with the 789 J reductions I don't assume there is a single J to Y ratio that should apply across fleet types. AA is plenty big enough to have richer J types serve hubs that demand more J: London, Tokyo, LAX and JFK among them, if not PHL or CLT. AA could more heavily base the high J types in hubs that will pay.
Low J (20 seats): A332, 788 (if the rumor about reducing J is true)
Moderate J (28 or 30 seats): 763, 789, A333
High J (37 seats): 772
Super high J (52 J seats and 8 F seats): 77W
The key in these configurations is number of paid J, which has no relation to J to Y ratios.
#43
Join Date: Oct 2015
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All business, no first, with the exception of AA's 77W. How long they maintain those 8 seats is anyone's guess, but I suspect they will for a while as I can't see them leaving FL Dining just to the JFK-LAX/SFO route. I suppose the real tell in this will be when DFW/LHR/PHL FL lounges come online. If they do not also have the dining (or it could easily be blended into the rest of the lounge) then it may be the sign that INTL F on AA could be going away.
https://www.aa.com/i18n/travel-info/...rst-dining.jsp
#44
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With due respect to Jon and JDiver, I'm not convinced. Even with the 789 J reductions I don't assume there is a single J to Y ratio that should apply across fleet types. AA is plenty big enough to have richer J types serve hubs that demand more J: London, Tokyo, LAX and JFK among them, if not PHL or CLT. AA could more heavily base the high J types in hubs that will pay.
But what 789 J reductions? The discussion here is about reducing four, or IMO more likely, eight, seats on the 788. And
This is definitely developing but American did not deny the plan to remove business class seats as part of the premium economy retrofit for the Boeing 787-8 — as I would have expected them to do if this was false. Instead they offered only, “Our [premium economy] retrofits will run through the mid-2019 and the 788 is the last fleet to be retrofitted. It’ll be a bit before we have more details to share on the 788.”
Gary Leff, 20 Feb 2018, View from the Wing - link
Gary Leff, 20 Feb 2018, View from the Wing - link