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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 16, 2018, 12:17 am
  #871  
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: DFW
Programs: AA, 1.5MM, GE
Posts: 213
I was on the HKG-DFW AA 126 12/15 and had a milage + copay upgrade request in, was fairly high on the list so thought the odds of clearing was pretty good. There were 51 on the upgrade list. In the end those that cleared (from the upgrade list on the AA app) were #1 and #'s 19-28, completing skipping #'s 2-18. I don't understand how this would ever occur, why bother publishing an upgrade list at all if it is not going to be used? What do you have to do, keep calling the AA desk and asking or checking in with the gate agent? I have politely inquired at the gate in the past and the agent typically would just say they are working on it or watch the list, so didn't do that this time. I had a good seat for the flight but was looking forward to the (very rare) upgrade opportunity. I just don't understand the logic used where most of the top 20 on the list are skipped. Will be interesting what AA says about it.
wandertheglobe is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 7:49 am
  #872  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 228
So i’m 6/6 this week on domestic upgrades, but the last 2 haven’t cleared for my partner, despite being on the same booking using my status. Seats available both times.

i tried to speak to the gate agent on Friday in CLT, but she wasn’t having any of it. I spoke to the AAdvantage line on Saturday, and they said they removed my partners FFN and re-requested the upgrade, so it should have cleared yesterday at the same time as mine?

Anyway, not the end of the world, but is there a way to make sure this works properly? Is it a case of making the booking under my FFN, then requesting the upgrade, then adding partners FFN?

thedeeg is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 9:19 am
  #873  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,313
Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
I was on the HKG-DFW AA 126 12/15 and had a milage + copay upgrade request in, was fairly high on the list so thought the odds of clearing was pretty good. There were 51 on the upgrade list. In the end those that cleared (from the upgrade list on the AA app) were #1 and #'s 19-28, completing skipping #'s 2-18. I don't understand how this would ever occur, why bother publishing an upgrade list at all if it is not going to be used? What do you have to do, keep calling the AA desk and asking or checking in with the gate agent? I have politely inquired at the gate in the past and the agent typically would just say they are working on it or watch the list, so didn't do that this time. I had a good seat for the flight but was looking forward to the (very rare) upgrade opportunity. I just don't understand the logic used where most of the top 20 on the list are skipped. Will be interesting what AA says about it.
Any chance 19-28 cleared from J to F?

other explanation I’d they skipped over miles/copay and processed swu’s only if they felt there wasn’t enough time to process the copays (sounds stupid but has happened to me). When did 19-28 clear? After or before boarding? This seems less likely as the SWUs and miles-copay would not be bunched like that (but on a domestic, Miles-copay and 500 miles upgrades would be).

i watch the app like a hawk for these type of shenanigans but even when you catch them, you are likely still out of luck.
beachfan is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 9:24 am
  #874  
 
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Lubbock, TX
Programs: AA Plat
Posts: 35
Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
I was on the HKG-DFW AA 126 12/15 and had a milage + copay upgrade request in, was fairly high on the list so thought the odds of clearing was pretty good. There were 51 on the upgrade list. In the end those that cleared (from the upgrade list on the AA app) were #1 and #'s 19-28, completing skipping #'s 2-18. I don't understand how this would ever occur, why bother publishing an upgrade list at all if it is not going to be used? What do you have to do, keep calling the AA desk and asking or checking in with the gate agent? I have politely inquired at the gate in the past and the agent typically would just say they are working on it or watch the list, so didn't do that this time. I had a good seat for the flight but was looking forward to the (very rare) upgrade opportunity. I just don't understand the logic used where most of the top 20 on the list are skipped. Will be interesting what AA says about it.
Entirely possible that it was E->PE upgrades. All three upgrades lists are combined on AA, so you don’t know who is upgrading to what. Very frustrating, but not likely that many people were skipped.
rubikcube is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 2:18 pm
  #875  
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,975
Originally Posted by beachfan
Any chance 19-28 cleared from J to F?
Not likely since that is 9 upgrades and there are only 8 F seats on that plane. And if all 8 were open presumably at least some of the upgrade requests would have cleared before then.
Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 8:32 pm
  #876  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Yeah, can't be J->F upgrades; in addition to Stripe's solid points, I'll add that if they cleared 8 J->F upgrades that would free up 8 J seats, which would result in 2-9 on the list clearing (assuming those were Y/W->J requests). If they only cleared 1 Y->J upgrade, they didn't clear more than 1 J->F upgrade.

I have no idea how Y->W upgrades work, but maybe that's what's going on? Seems odd there would be 8 open W seats too though. I don't have any other theory, but I find it pretty unlikely that they just straight skipped 18 people for no reason.
HLCinCOU is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 8:41 pm
  #877  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU

I have no idea how Y->W upgrades work, but maybe that's what's going on? Seems odd there would be 8 open W seats too though. I don't have any other theory, but I find it pretty unlikely that they just straight skipped 18 people for no reason.
Actually this got me thinking maybe those customers were customers in W getting upgraded to J? With #1 being either a displaced pax or CK?

However, I have noticed a similar oddity on a domestic flight last month so I feel there is something up with how the upgrade list and airport list not syncing up the way it should.
golfingboy is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 8:57 pm
  #878  
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
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Posts: 499
Originally Posted by golfingboy
Actually this got me thinking maybe those customers were customers in W getting upgraded to J? With #1 being either a displaced pax or CK?
Well, I would have thought the W folks would be situated in the list wherever they should be. Also, do W seats even get preference?

Originally Posted by golfingboy
However, I have noticed a similar oddity on a domestic flight last month so I feel there is something up with how the upgrade list and airport list not syncing up the way it should.
I guess it's possible. I have not noticed any strange behavior myself (or at least, nothing strange enough it's not explained by stuff we already know about like different cabin upgrades).
HLCinCOU is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 9:39 pm
  #879  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by HLCinCOU
Well, I would have thought the W folks would be situated in the list wherever they should be. Also, do W seats even get preference?



I guess it's possible. I have not noticed any strange behavior myself (or at least, nothing strange enough it's not explained by stuff we already know about like different cabin upgrades).
I am not sure. At this point - AA isn’t quite transparent about these kind of thing.

Regarding being skipped I created a thread last month when I noticed on a short PIT-CLT flight they cleared someone way down the list skipping many others on the list and some have observed similar situations the poster was discussing about.

Skipped on Upgrade List?

Last edited by golfingboy; Dec 16, 2018 at 9:47 pm
golfingboy is offline  
Old Dec 16, 2018, 11:22 pm
  #880  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: JFK
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, Marriott Platinum Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 29
Originally Posted by wandertheglobe
I was on the HKG-DFW AA 126 12/15 and had a milage + copay upgrade request in, was fairly high on the list so thought the odds of clearing was pretty good. There were 51 on the upgrade list. In the end those that cleared (from the upgrade list on the AA app) were #1 and #'s 19-28, completing skipping #'s 2-18. I don't understand how this would ever occur, why bother publishing an upgrade list at all if it is not going to be used? What do you have to do, keep calling the AA desk and asking or checking in with the gate agent? I have politely inquired at the gate in the past and the agent typically would just say they are working on it or watch the list, so didn't do that this time. I had a good seat for the flight but was looking forward to the (very rare) upgrade opportunity. I just don't understand the logic used where most of the top 20 on the list are skipped. Will be interesting what AA says about it.
I am on 126 tomorrow (currently seated in PE) and have been on the waitlist to use a SWU for a while—It looked like there was C1 this morning for a brief moment, but I was on my flight to HKG and missed it. EF is showing 14 seats open in J, so I’m hoping I get one, but your experience makes me worried!
dcfit is offline  
Old Dec 17, 2018, 1:55 am
  #881  
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,670
Originally Posted by dcfit
I am on 126 tomorrow (currently seated in PE) and have been on the waitlist to use a SWU for a while—It looked like there was C1 this morning for a brief moment, but I was on my flight to HKG and missed it. EF is showing 14 seats open in J, so I’m hoping I get one, but your experience makes me worried!
I'm not normally a defender but it seems this is mostly a bunch of fuss about nothing. It has been common knowledge on here that J--> F, Y/W --> J, and Y --> W upgraders are all on the list, usually in chunks (i.e. #1-3 might be for F, #4-30 might be for J, and #31-60 might be for W, with the result that #1-3, 4-10, and 31-40 end up clearing, if there are 3, 7, and 10 seats in F, J, and W, respectively). Sure, there are occasional reports of what sounds like AAgents wrongly skipping people on the list, but this phenomenon of having separate sequential groups of people clear should not be presumed to be nefarious. It is very common. I just had something like this happen on my current DFW-HKG AA 125.
platbrownguy is offline  
Old Dec 17, 2018, 3:17 am
  #882  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: JFK
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, Marriott Platinum Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 29
It’s a moot point for me now—got a notification a few hours ago that AA126 that was supposed to leave at 3:45pm on Dec 18 is now delayed until 7:00am on Dec 19th. Got myself rerouted on a CX codeshare to JFK that leaves in the morning now, so PE it is for me!
dcfit is offline  
Old Dec 17, 2018, 4:07 pm
  #883  
 
Join Date: Dec 2017
Programs: AA GLD
Posts: 6
hey guys ,
Can someone tell me the chances of me and my dad getting upgraded on aa38 on the 12/23/18? We are using a swu.
Thanks in advance
Brandontheflyer is offline  
Old Dec 17, 2018, 4:11 pm
  #884  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,003
Originally Posted by Brandontheflyer
hey guys ,
Can someone tell me the chances of me and my dad getting upgraded on aa38 on the 12/23/18? We are using a swu.
Thanks in advance
Currently C0
enviroian is online now  
Old Dec 18, 2018, 2:55 pm
  #885  
 
Join Date: Jun 2016
Location: SFO, formerly BOS
Programs: AS Gold 75K and Delta PM, former AA EXP
Posts: 68
Cleared at T-96 on tomorrow's AA16, 11:40AM departure SFO-JFK from Y to J. EF was showing J4 before I cleared, now showing J2. Pretty surprised.
KBOS777 is offline  


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