Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
#841
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
I'd say your odds are pretty darn good, at least relatively speaking. The seatmap with 11 empties is one thing, but the part that sticks out for me is the I7. Also, tangentially related, at Y0 with a bad looking econ map I wonder if they'll end up doing op-ups.
#842
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Oh wow, I had just done an availability search before....did the award search and it's C3! If your upgrade hasn't cleared already call them up and they should be able to.
#843
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: AA PLT, United Silver
Posts: 173
I called and they cleared me thanks for letting me know , I did a search before I made this post and it was C0 and I had a alert but they didn't send me a email.
#844
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Yea... Those EF alerts are tricky at times. I've experienced the opposite on a recent trip. I was upgraded using SWU and C inventory never became available according to EF.
#845
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Yeah, the EF alerts are definitely far from reliable. My understanding is they do sweeps a few times a day to look at the inventory. But of course AA is often doing things like opening some C space and then quickly clearing people into it, which can happen entirely between sweeps. Last time I had one notify me (for LAX-AKL last month) I got the email within a couple minutes and immediately called AA; while I was on hold I checked EF and saw it was already back to C0, so I checked the AA site and saw my SWUs had already automatically cleared. So I hung up the phone.
#846
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,986
Neither. A few years ago it was very predictable (and was an absolute number at that time), but that is definitely not the case currently.
#847
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: LGA, JFK, LAX, SFO
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 303
Not sure if anyone has ever seen this before, but for about 1 hour yesterday AA released insane amounts of C inventory. Almost every flight for months out was C7 or C4 if there was only 4 J seats left, etc. I tried calling to upgrade 2 flights, but because of the weather issues in the south east the wait/ callback time was 45 minutes. By the time I received my call the inventory all went back to C0. I hope some people were able to score some upgrades during that hour. Obviously this was a glitch that AA quickly remedied.
Last edited by brc757rr; Dec 11, 2018 at 3:05 pm
#848
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,146
Not sure if anyone has ever seen this before, but for about 1 hour yesterday AA released insane amounts of C inventory. Almost every flight for months out was C7 or C4 if there was only 4 J seats left, etc. I tried calling to upgrade 2 flights, but because of the weather issues in the south east the wait/ callback time was 45 minutes. By the time I received my call the inventory all went back to C0. I hope some people were able to score some upgrades during that hour.
#849
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,816
Continuing the 789 LAX-DFW discussion, Sunday I was 2 of 41 and no upgrade. I can't get a cell connection on this aircraft so I don't know if #1 cleared.
DFW-IND 738 again cleared at 22h.
One factor on the upgrade % is how many seats are held back "just in case". Is it an absolute # like 1 or 2 or a percentage like 10%?
DFW-IND 738 again cleared at 22h.
One factor on the upgrade % is how many seats are held back "just in case". Is it an absolute # like 1 or 2 or a percentage like 10%?
#850
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Live: IWI; Work: DCA/Everywhere; Play: LAS/SJU/MLE
Programs: AA EXP, DL PM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Ambassador/LTP, Nat'l Exec Elite, LEYE Gold
Posts: 6,670
FYI there's C2 on this Sunday's DFW-HKG (AA 125, 12/16). It was C3 and I just changed onto it to avoid DFW-NRT-HKG.
#851
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Has AA become more stingy with releasing complimentary upgrade space this year?
Maybe just bad luck of the draw but I have a trip coming up this Saturday where only 3 out of 12 seats in J are booked with MCE only having 4 seats taken including me+companion yet no upgrade has been processed.
We have the best seats in Y so it’s all good either way but just found this kind of strange. I’d like to make my meal selections if possible this is the only reason I would like to be upgraded at least 24 hours out.
I am EXP FWIW.
Maybe just bad luck of the draw but I have a trip coming up this Saturday where only 3 out of 12 seats in J are booked with MCE only having 4 seats taken including me+companion yet no upgrade has been processed.
We have the best seats in Y so it’s all good either way but just found this kind of strange. I’d like to make my meal selections if possible this is the only reason I would like to be upgraded at least 24 hours out.
I am EXP FWIW.
#852
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
The somewhat less obvious part is the compositional effect on which EXPs actually get the upgrades. This change kind of dovetails with the list order changes in May 2017 (list was ordered by date of booking, now it's by EQD); both changes greatly benefit flyers that book last minute, high-priced tickets, at the expense of flyers that tend to book early for lower cost. Both changes appear to have caused quite a bit of consternation around here, but it's important to recognize that this is more or less a zero-sum thing; for every EXP who finds himself lower in the lists now, there's one who finds himself higher.
I'm one of the big beneficiaries of the new policy. I typically book no more than 48 hours out, and tend to fly lots of regional routes that have a high price/mile; before the EQD change I cleared less than half the time, and often by the time I booked J would already be full or close to it because they had already processed some upgrades. That was sort of a drag. I knew my behavior was exactly what the airline really wanted...but they were giving all the upgrades to flyers who were behaving in ways much less beneficial to AA. The system effectively had a clear bias in favor of the people who paid the least for their tickets. The new system strikes me as a lot more sensible. Of course my self-interest aligns there too (2018 upgrade success >80%), so go figure. But I just wanted to point out that there are good effects for a lot of people from these changes.
That said, hope you clear before T-24 so you can get that meal preordered.
#853
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,975
Has AA become more stingy with releasing complimentary upgrade space this year?
Maybe just bad luck of the draw but I have a trip coming up this Saturday where only 3 out of 12 seats in J are booked with MCE only having 4 seats taken including me+companion yet no upgrade has been processed.
We have the best seats in Y so it’s all good either way but just found this kind of strange. I’d like to make my meal selections if possible this is the only reason I would like to be upgraded at least 24 hours out.
I am EXP FWIW.
Maybe just bad luck of the draw but I have a trip coming up this Saturday where only 3 out of 12 seats in J are booked with MCE only having 4 seats taken including me+companion yet no upgrade has been processed.
We have the best seats in Y so it’s all good either way but just found this kind of strange. I’d like to make my meal selections if possible this is the only reason I would like to be upgraded at least 24 hours out.
I am EXP FWIW.
The only plausible explanation is that Dec 14 is the target date for Congress to adjourn and maybe AA is keeping the F cabin clear on that weekend to accommodate last minute purchases.
#854
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: DTW / SJC
Programs: AA EXP, DL DM, Marriott Titanium, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 764
It's at least early enough to allow for meal selection, but can be annoying when it goes down from J7+ to J1 and I'm pretty much stuck in the seat I was assigned.
#855
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,816