Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
Dec 9, 2018, 5:22 am
#826
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, BA Gold, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,989
Absolutely. For example, I've had several SFO trips this year. Upgrades tend not to clear, so I've paid for J on these flights. If I spot an SFO-DFW connection on a 787 or SFO-PHL on the A330, I'll almost always take that over a B737 or A321, unless the times are really inconvenient.
Dec 9, 2018, 8:55 am
#827
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Absolutely. For example, I've had several SFO trips this year. Upgrades tend not to clear, so I've paid for J on these flights. If I spot an SFO-DFW connection on a 787 or SFO-PHL on the A330, I'll almost always take that over a B737 or A321, unless the times are really inconvenient.
Dec 9, 2018, 10:44 am
#828
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: Wesley Chapel, FL
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 30,009
I don't understand why that is. Mathematically the ratio of F/J to Y seats is one of the better ones in the fleet. Do more people buying F target that plane to get the better seat, even on a route like DFW-ORD? I know a hub-to-hub route like that can be elite heavy but that would presumably affect all planes equally. I have two flights booked in Feb on the 788 between DFW and ORD, so I hope you're wrong. The J cabin is showing mostly empty now, but I know that doesn't mean much.
Dec 9, 2018, 2:51 pm
#829
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Anyway, these were the only domestic flights I used miles+copay on...on the narrowbodies I just don't care as much. If other flyers think like me, that could be a significant factor pushing you down the list, and also a factor in it being J0 when the airport list comes up.
Dec 9, 2018, 3:10 pm
#830
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
It suddenly occurred to me that there's a good reason for higher (nominal) list position on bigger planes even if the J/Y ratios are big that doesn't involve pax behavior at all. The simplest way to put it is "bigger planes have longer lists, so your relative position is larger in nominal terms." But let me unpack it a bit:
Plane A has 100 total pax for 90 Y and 10 J seats. 20% of flyers are EXP and you're right in the middle of the pack for EQD.
Plane B has 1000 total pax for 900 Y and 100 J seats. Same % EXP and you're still in the middle.
Your list position on Plane A is 10, and on Plane B it's 100. Of course it means exactly the same thing, and we should say those routes have identical competition...but this isn't something we're thinking about when we say "dang I'm 15th on the list!"
I'll bet if we started thinking of list position as a ratio of position/list-size we'd get a more accurate idea of competition and odds.
Dec 9, 2018, 3:16 pm
#831
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Please note my last post doesn't invalidate the one before it at all; I figure those are both factors in this case.
Dec 9, 2018, 3:35 pm
#832
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Well, your hypo depends on the % of EXP is constant across both scenarios. Besides more people willing to outright purchase F on lie-flat flights (so fewer seats available for upgrades to begin with), I would suspect that there are more EXPs (and CKs) on those lie-flat flights (and potentially more "high-value" EXPs).
Dec 9, 2018, 3:40 pm
#833
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: COU
Programs: AA EXP, Bonvoy Ambassador, Hertz PC
Posts: 499
Well, your hypo depends on the % of EXP is constant across both scenarios. Besides more people willing to outright purchase F on lie-flat flights (so fewer seats available for upgrades to begin with), I would suspect that there are more EXPs (and CKs) on those lie-flat flights (and potentially more "high-value" EXPs).
Dec 9, 2018, 9:23 pm
#834
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: American Airlines ExecPlat, Asiana Diamond
Posts: 127
Is it possible to be double dipped into upgrades?
Doing a LAX to MIA red eye flight as ExecPlat requested 500 mile upgrade at booking and changed it to SWU just in case (last one expiring anyway).
Saturday I get an email that I was upgraded. No SWU was deducted. Details show it was a 500 mile upgrade and not a SWU. The whole first cabin has always been very empty as I was checking leading up to that. I get seat 6A.
Today I decide to refresh my app and all of a sudden I’m in seat 3C, and 6A is empty. I check my email and see a ticket exchange was done, and a SWU was applied and taken.
Is it technically possible to get 500 mile upgraded if First is pretty empty, and that takes priority over the SWU if it’s not really needed? That’s the only explanation I can think of why my seat was moved at the same time my ticket was exchanged, even though I was in first for more than 24 hours already without a ticket exchange like a normal 500 mile.
Doing a LAX to MIA red eye flight as ExecPlat requested 500 mile upgrade at booking and changed it to SWU just in case (last one expiring anyway).
Saturday I get an email that I was upgraded. No SWU was deducted. Details show it was a 500 mile upgrade and not a SWU. The whole first cabin has always been very empty as I was checking leading up to that. I get seat 6A.
Today I decide to refresh my app and all of a sudden I’m in seat 3C, and 6A is empty. I check my email and see a ticket exchange was done, and a SWU was applied and taken.
Is it technically possible to get 500 mile upgraded if First is pretty empty, and that takes priority over the SWU if it’s not really needed? That’s the only explanation I can think of why my seat was moved at the same time my ticket was exchanged, even though I was in first for more than 24 hours already without a ticket exchange like a normal 500 mile.
Dec 9, 2018, 11:33 pm
#835
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,315
Probably more likely the lag between the initiation of the upgrade and completion of the reticketing.
What detail showed you definitively it was a 500 mile upgrade? I suppose since they come from different inventory, it's possible.
What detail showed you definitively it was a 500 mile upgrade? I suppose since they come from different inventory, it's possible.
Dec 10, 2018, 12:07 am
#836
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: American Airlines ExecPlat, Asiana Diamond
Posts: 127
I don’t remember the ticket class, but the app showed under Upgrades that it was a confirmed 500 mile upgrade. Before that it was SWU requested, then after reticketing it changed to SWU confirmed.
Dec 10, 2018, 9:03 am
#837
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
Continuing the 789 LAX-DFW discussion, Sunday I was 2 of 41 and no upgrade. I can't get a cell connection on this aircraft so I don't know if #1 cleared.
DFW-IND 738 again cleared at 22h.
One factor on the upgrade % is how many seats are held back "just in case". Is it an absolute # like 1 or 2 or a percentage like 10%?
DFW-IND 738 again cleared at 22h.
One factor on the upgrade % is how many seats are held back "just in case". Is it an absolute # like 1 or 2 or a percentage like 10%?
Dec 10, 2018, 9:08 am
#838
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,453
Hard to provide an accurate general statement, but IME it's usually been an absolute number (1-2 as you suggested) under normal, day-to-day operations. Things like oversold flights and anticipated widespread IRROPS can cause that number to go up, though.
Dec 10, 2018, 6:38 pm
#839
Join Date: Aug 2017
Programs: AA PLT, United Silver
Posts: 173
LAX-NRT on 12/12 Expert Flyer shows 11 Seats Available.
What are my odds of the upgrade clearing on this flight. Should I expect a huge upgrade list
What are my odds of the upgrade clearing on this flight. Should I expect a huge upgrade list
Last edited by Daniel Solis; Dec 10, 2018 at 6:43 pm
Dec 10, 2018, 10:36 pm
#840
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: American Airlines ExecPlat, Asiana Diamond
Posts: 127
Just an update, it ws a SWU but multiple plane changes happened, so first I was in 6A in the back of a 3-6 737. Then it changed to a 1-4 737, put me in row 3, then changed back to the 3-6 and that’s when the SWU ticket was exchanged showing me in bulkhead. Then I moved myself to 3A as the plan became a 1-4 737 for good.