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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
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Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 4, 2018, 9:01 am
  #796  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,447
To clarify:

C = instrument upgrades from Y to J/domestic F (SWU, miles+copay, BXP1, BXP3) on all flights (visible on EF)
R = 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades from Y to J/domestic F in eligible markets (not visible on EF); AND revenue J fare bucket on long-haul international flights, i.e. those not eligible for 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades (the former not visible on EF)
X = former 500-mile/EXP complimentary upgrades from Y to domestic F when domestic F was sold in the GDS as F, now rarely used except maybe 3-cabin J to F op-ups?

C does not necessarily have any relationship with R. Inside the window, I've cleared the EXP complimentary upgrade (into R) on flights showing C0. I've also bought flights inside the window, failed to clear the EXP upgrade over several hours (implying R0), and applied an instrument as the flight was showing C>0.
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 9:02 am
  #797  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,145
Originally Posted by TSparky
Sunday LAX-DFW on a 789 - I was 5 of 62 (27k EQD) and I don't think anyone cleared.
DFW-IND cleared at t-23, as usual.
Wow. That route (and specifically the flight with the 789) always seems one of the hardest in the whole system to upgrade. Wild.
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 9:16 am
  #798  
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Originally Posted by econometrics
Wow. That route (and specifically the flight with the 789) always seems one of the hardest in the whole system to upgrade. Wild.
Also the 788's on the ORD-DFW and vice versa routes. I'm always in the teens on that list of 50+ passengers.
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 11:37 am
  #799  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Lafayette, LA
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, BA Gold, UA Gold MM, DL SM MM, Hyatt Glob, HH Diam, Marriott Ti/LT Plat, IHG Plat
Posts: 274
Lax-dfw 789

Originally Posted by econometrics
Wow. That route (and specifically the flight with the 789) always seems one of the hardest in the whole system to upgrade. Wild.
I made a reservation in July for travel last week that included the LAX-DFW 789. I guessed it would be difficult to get a complimentary upgrade (I'm EXP with $20K or so of annual spending) so I applied a Business Extra regional upgrade. I had an EF alert for C space on the flight, but this apparently never happened. Nevertheless, it looked pretty good -- J7 C0 from July all the way until three or four days before the flight. Then it was J6 C0, J4 C0, and finally J1 C0. When the upgrade list finally opened a few hours before flight time I saw that I was 8th on the list. One passenger was upgraded after boarding.

I rarely fly this route. On my usual domestic routes -- of which the most crowded seems to be DFW-DCA -- I have been getting complimentary upgrades about 80% of the time, albeit usually within 24 hours of flight time. Even when I don't get upgraded I am usually one of the first three names on the list. Unfortunately none of those flights are on 789s.

I was surprised to be so far down on the list this time, given that I was using an "instrument" and not relying on a complimentary upgrade. The wiki on this thread seems to indicate that I would have been ahead of other EXPs who were not using instruments. But I recall hearing that during the last 24 hours before the flight everyone basically gets put on the same list and the order becomes status + EQD, no preference for people using instruments. Is this true, or is it more likely that there were 7 people ahead of me who were using SWUs, miles, or Business Extra to upgrade?
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 11:47 am
  #800  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Programs: AA EXP (owe), BA Silver (ows), AB Silver (owr), WN A+/CP, IHG Spire AMB, Avis First
Posts: 1,414
Originally Posted by Assimilated Cajun
I made a reservation in July for travel last week that included the LAX-DFW 789. I guessed it would be difficult to get a complimentary upgrade (I'm EXP with $20K or so of annual spending) so I applied a Business Extra regional upgrade. I had an EF alert for C space on the flight, but this apparently never happened. Nevertheless, it looked pretty good -- J7 C0 from July all the way until three or four days before the flight. Then it was J6 C0, J4 C0, and finally J1 C0. When the upgrade list finally opened a few hours before flight time I saw that I was 8th on the list. One passenger was upgraded after boarding.

I rarely fly this route. On my usual domestic routes -- of which the most crowded seems to be DFW-DCA -- I have been getting complimentary upgrades about 80% of the time, albeit usually within 24 hours of flight time. Even when I don't get upgraded I am usually one of the first three names on the list. Unfortunately none of those flights are on 789s.

I was surprised to be so far down on the list this time, given that I was using an "instrument" and not relying on a complimentary upgrade. The wiki on this thread seems to indicate that I would have been ahead of other EXPs who were not using instruments. But I recall hearing that during the last 24 hours before the flight everyone basically gets put on the same list and the order becomes status + EQD, no preference for people using instruments. Is this true, or is it more likely that there were 7 people ahead of me who were using SWUs, miles, or Business Extra to upgrade?
SWU/Miles+CoPay is always ahead of complimentary now, even on airport upgrade list down until T-0.

What likely happened is that there were 7 people ahead of you also with instrument upgrades. The DFW-LAX 789 flight is timed well now I think that people can select it for returns on many of the international flights returning in to DFW, so those people may have had an upgrade clear in their international segment and ended up actually waitlisted for the domestic portion...

At least I was in this situation recently too, and my upgrade also did not clear.
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 12:23 pm
  #801  
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Originally Posted by Assimilated Cajun
Business Extra regional upgrade
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 1:06 pm
  #802  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Lafayette, LA
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, BA Gold, UA Gold MM, DL SM MM, Hyatt Glob, HH Diam, Marriott Ti/LT Plat, IHG Plat
Posts: 274
Originally Posted by enviroian
American Airlines Business Extra Program (master thread)
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Old Dec 4, 2018, 3:16 pm
  #803  
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2609 to Vegas today. #6 out of 32 for 1 seat.
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Old Dec 5, 2018, 9:15 am
  #804  
 
Join Date: Dec 2018
Location: Washington DC
Programs: American Airlines
Posts: 66
11/30 and 12/3 DCA-JFK-DCA. We both cleared as Platinum 48 hours out.

For the return flight, my seat was unassigned when I checked in. I assumed they had oversold, and about six hours before our flight they left a VM saying it was due to operational reasons. No aircraft swap, but they downgraded us both back to our original seats but immediately sent $300 vouchers. I thought this was more than fair.
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Old Dec 5, 2018, 7:33 pm
  #805  
 
Join Date: Aug 2018
Location: NC
Programs: AA, Marriott/SPG, AMEX
Posts: 272
Originally Posted by hipquest
The husband was booked through his corporate travel desk flying GSO>LHR via ORD over and PHL back (12/12-12/16). I just got off the phone with AA to put him on the list to upgrade with cash and points. His ORD to LHR cleared on the spot, LHR to PHL is "requested". The agent I was speaking with was checking on the likelihood of an upgrade and he seemed surprised that the system confirmed immediate availability (he put me on hold to confirm). I hope he gets the upgrade home, I need him fresh fo my bday roadtrip that starts on the 17th
Regarding this earlier post I made-with the increasing potential of really bad weather in NC this weekend (and all the cancellations that will ensue) what are the chances of a claw back? Points/funds have been deducted/charged. Thanks for any insight.
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Old Dec 5, 2018, 9:50 pm
  #806  
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
Programs: AY+ Plat, Marriott Plat, Hyatt Discoverist
Posts: 2,846
Originally Posted by hipquest
Regarding this earlier post I made-with the increasing potential of really bad weather in NC this weekend (and all the cancellations that will ensue) what are the chances of a claw back? Points/funds have been deducted/charged. Thanks for any insight.
With cash + points and SWUs, AA will generally try to rebook you in the upgraded cabin, if possible. That said, sometimes you might be willing to take a downgrade to get out on an earlier flight. In that case, AA technically doesn't owe you anything, but you might be able to negotiate a refund of the miles and copay.
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Old Dec 6, 2018, 4:42 am
  #807  
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Originally Posted by hipquest
Regarding this earlier post I made-with the increasing potential of really bad weather in NC this weekend (and all the cancellations that will ensue) what are the chances of a claw back? Points/funds have been deducted/charged. Thanks for any insight.
What exactly do you mean by "claw back?"
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Old Dec 6, 2018, 7:53 am
  #808  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: En Route
Programs: Many
Posts: 6,798
Didn't even clear CUN-JFK as EXP. What is the point if top tier status if you don't even clear upgrades on leisure routes during low season. I think i'm done with this next year.

EDIT

Spoke too soon, cleared.

Last edited by GetSetJetSet; Dec 6, 2018 at 3:13 pm
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Old Dec 6, 2018, 8:23 am
  #809  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,447
Originally Posted by GetSetJetSet
Didn't even clear CUN-JFK as EXP. What is the point if top tier status if you don't even clear upgrades on leisure routes during low season. I think i'm done with this next year.
When did you fly? I'd argue Thanksgiving to Christmas is high season for CUN, particularly in the front end of the plane which would be filled with families (as opposed to college students filling the back over spring break).
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Old Dec 6, 2018, 9:27 am
  #810  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,986
Originally Posted by Assimilated Cajun
I was surprised to be so far down on the list this time, given that I was using an "instrument" and not relying on a complimentary upgrade. The wiki on this thread seems to indicate that I would have been ahead of other EXPs who were not using instruments. But I recall hearing that during the last 24 hours before the flight everyone basically gets put on the same list and the order becomes status + EQD, no preference for people using instruments. Is this true, or is it more likely that there were 7 people ahead of me who were using SWUs, miles, or Business Extra to upgrade?
This particular flight seems to be one of the toughest domestic upgrades to clear. It's actually likely that there were one or more CKs ahead of you on the list. Remember, a CK on any type of ticket (even an award ticket) will trump an EXP on the upgrade list. Status is the first tiebreaker. Then, within the group of EXPs on the list, instrument upgrades provide priority over regular complimentary upgrade requests, and both of these are prioritized over award ticket upgrade requests.

Given how low you were on the list, though, I would still question whether you were properly listed as an instrument upgrade. I would've checked with an airport agent to see how you were listed on the PALL list (e.g. SWU would be VIP2, miles/copay would be MLG2, and a regular comp upgrade would be UPG2). The instrument upgrade request should carry over to the airport list -- in other words, not everyone is the same within the final 24 hours as you suggested you'd heard somewhere.

Somewhat OT, but IMO, these days, if upgrades are important to you and drive your decision to maintain elite status, you have to select routes/times very carefully to avoid disappointment. It really shouldn't be a shock that a widebody DFW-LAX flight might not clear even with an instrument. I've found that buying a mix of paid J/F on routes like this, combined with buying a coach ticket and getting EXP comp upgrades for less competitive routes/times still keeps me up front virtually 100% of the time. It's nice not sweating out upgrades on the more competitive flights. The better IROPS handling (protected in J) and double EQMs take the sting out of the extra cost also.
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