Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes."New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Executive Platinum
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
- Booking class
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- Concierge Key
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)
Jul 30, 2018, 1:26 pm
#436
Join Date: Aug 2017
Location: Dallas
Programs: AA ExPlat, Marriott Ambassador, Hilton Gold, Hertz PC
Posts: 121
07/27 DFW-CLT & 07/29 CLT-DFW both upgrades cleared. Plat elite with ~$18k rolling EQD.
Jul 30, 2018, 10:58 pm
#438
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Trying my luck with a PY to J upgrade on DFW-HKG Aug 18.
Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.
I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?
Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?
I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...
Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.
I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?
Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?
I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...
Jul 31, 2018, 10:27 am
#439
Join Date: Dec 2017
Programs: AA GLD
Posts: 6
I am flying POS-MIA on AA2282 on August 8. I am using a SWU for this flight. Can anyone tell me the chances of me being upgraded?
Jul 31, 2018, 10:37 am
#440
Join Date: Oct 2015
Location: SFO
Programs: AA EXP, SPG / Marriott GLD, HHonors GLD
Posts: 520
SFO-JFK; A321T, Wed night redeye - cleared 40 hours out
JFK-BOS; A321T, Thu morning - cleared 100 hours out
About $27k in rolling, ttm EQD and haven't missed an upgrade since April and only three segments missed this year (with most clearing 30-100 hours in advance).
JFK-BOS; A321T, Thu morning - cleared 100 hours out
About $27k in rolling, ttm EQD and haven't missed an upgrade since April and only three segments missed this year (with most clearing 30-100 hours in advance).
Aug 4, 2018, 2:09 pm
#443
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Lubbock, TX
Programs: AA Plat
Posts: 35
Trying my luck with a PY to J upgrade on DFW-HKG Aug 18.
Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.
I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?
Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?
I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...
Got on the list when I purchased the ticket in late May. At that time EF showed J7, and it has stayed that way up until the present. First is at F3.
I am not familiar with this route, but in the case of Tokyo routes IME more than 7 premium seats open less than a month prior to departure indicates a relatively good chance of my upgrade clearing. Can the same be said for HKG, or is this a route that tends to see a lot of last-minute J/F purchases?
Also, is it safe to say that there will be enough J pax on the F u/g list to fill any of those 3 F seats that are still vacant come departure time?
I do not want to get a false sense of hope since I know that this is a very difficult upgrade to get, even more so on Saturday, but on the other hand the current snapshot of seat availability seems decent...
Aug 5, 2018, 10:35 am
#444
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
I’m doing the exact same thing on 8/19 and wondering the same thing. It looks like today there were 16 people on the upgrade list and more than half showed as cleared. Other days over the past week have shown every person on the upgrade list clearing. It looked like quite a few cleared into PE though. I’ve had good success on TATL routes in that situation as an EXP, but don’t have much experience over the pacific.
Also, are complimentary Y to PE upgrades tracked on the same upgrade list as upgrades to J and F?
Aug 5, 2018, 10:53 am
#445
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: KHOU/KIAH
Programs: AA EXP | Marriott Bonvoy Titanium| Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 11,222
Flying SFO-JFK-GIG on Thursday. GIG-JFK-SFO next Tuesday.
SWUs cleared on booking. ^
SWUs cleared on booking. ^
Aug 5, 2018, 11:02 am
#446
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,960
Late afternoon last Sunday... AUS-DFW, #12 on the list, sat in Y. Two or three cleared at the gate. DFW-SNA, #1 on the list, cleared at the gate. Just me, although several had cleared earlier.
Late morning Wednesday... DFW-SNA, #1 of 9 on the list, cleared at the gate after one confirmed passenger failed to check in. DFW-AUS cleared at T-104.
Rolling EQDs probably a bit under $12K.
Late morning Wednesday... DFW-SNA, #1 of 9 on the list, cleared at the gate after one confirmed passenger failed to check in. DFW-AUS cleared at T-104.
Rolling EQDs probably a bit under $12K.
Aug 5, 2018, 11:04 am
#447
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Lubbock, TX
Programs: AA Plat
Posts: 35
Do you have status on AA?
Aug 5, 2018, 12:43 pm
#448
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
You can view it through the app by looking at the flight status within 4 hours of departure. Keep in mind that the list doesn’t include anyone who cleared in advance, so it’s impossible to know how many cleared before. Today, there were 8 on the list and only 1 cleared to J. However, it looked like many more may have cleared yesterday.
Do you have status on AA?
I'll keep you updated.
Aug 5, 2018, 1:26 pm
#449
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
Exp with ~28k
Sun 7/29 BUR-PHX no upgrade, BUR-IND at ~48
Thu 8/2 IND-PHX no upgrade, PHX-BUR at ~100 but missed connection after detour to TUS and back to PHX
Fri 8/3 PHX-SAN at door close, SAN-LAX no upgrade
Sun 8/5 LAX-DFW waitlisted SWU but complimentary hit instead at 48, DFW-IND at 47 also complimentary
It's been all over the map. Flights I expect to upgrade I don't, tough flights (DFW-LAX 789) I do. I blame it on leisure travelers.
Sun 7/29 BUR-PHX no upgrade, BUR-IND at ~48
Thu 8/2 IND-PHX no upgrade, PHX-BUR at ~100 but missed connection after detour to TUS and back to PHX
Fri 8/3 PHX-SAN at door close, SAN-LAX no upgrade
Sun 8/5 LAX-DFW waitlisted SWU but complimentary hit instead at 48, DFW-IND at 47 also complimentary
It's been all over the map. Flights I expect to upgrade I don't, tough flights (DFW-LAX 789) I do. I blame it on leisure travelers.
Aug 5, 2018, 3:19 pm
#450
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Lubbock, TX
Programs: AA Plat
Posts: 35
One of the interesting things about your flight is that the seat map is half empty, but R, D, and I are all 0. The next Saturday, the return flight from HKG-DFW shows J1 with a similar map. I typically view this as bad for upgrade chances, but it’s strange considering the seat map (which we all know is limited in usefulness).