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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Apr 9, 2018, 8:01 pm
  #196  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by TheBritAbroad
Looks like the 77W in May has Premium Economy based on the seat map but is not yet being sold as inventory. I'm booked outbound on May 18th (SWU cleared to J) and wait listed for June 2nd but so far snagged a seat in PE for the return.
Awesome!! Will be on the lookout for PE on for my May+ trips to HKG!! Nice!! Booking the April trip in 24-48 hrs.
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2018, 1:13 pm
  #197  
 
Join Date: Nov 2017
Posts: 3
What are the chances of me getting upgrade to J on AA 719 fco to phl may 28 if I requested my upgrade back in feb. btw I have no status. My guess is not a chance in hell. There are 6 seats in J open but they are only selling 1 on their website.
sanbr is offline  
Old Apr 10, 2018, 1:45 pm
  #198  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,451
Originally Posted by sanbr
What are the chances of me getting upgrade to J on AA 719 fco to phl may 28 if I requested my upgrade back in feb. btw I have no status. My guess is not a chance in hell. There are 6 seats in J open but they are only selling 1 on their website.
Your guess is an accurate one.
dkc192 is offline  
Old Apr 11, 2018, 6:24 pm
  #199  
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
Originally Posted by TheBritAbroad
Looks like the 77W in May has Premium Economy based on the seat map but is not yet being sold as inventory. I'm booked outbound on May 18th (SWU cleared to J) and wait listed for June 2nd but so far snagged a seat in PE for the return.
Confirming PE seating on LAX-HKG-LAX route. Booked flight today and PE is being sold as MCE. Outbound in two weeks and returning first week of May. Nice!!
Zacnlinc is offline  
Old Apr 12, 2018, 2:47 pm
  #200  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 732
LAX-HKG

Cleared SWU Y->J for upcoming flight AA 193 LAX-HKG next month (about 3 weeks in advance). EXP with about $17K in spending in 2017.
I had selected that date as the J cabin looked fairly empty at booking.

However, I did not receive any alert from EF (as I understand that EF does not continuously monitor "C" fare bucket for upgrades).

Last edited by zip10001; Apr 12, 2018 at 5:59 pm
zip10001 is offline  
Old Apr 12, 2018, 11:06 pm
  #201  
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 91
Cleared SWUs today for PE->J on AA 48 DFW-CDG on 4/17 and the return on AA 49 on 4/26.

As is often the case, my record went into "Couldn't display" mode. Fortunately the EXP desk is much more proactive in fixing that than the the regular desk was when I did mileage upgrades as platinum.
bacampbe is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2018, 1:54 am
  #202  
 
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: DAC, KTM, JFK, PBI
Programs: Qatar Platinum, One World Emerald, IHG Platinum Elite
Posts: 98
Hello all, new to the AA boards. I am Qatar Plat, OWE and am flying NRT-ORD-NRT in Economy (seats are booked in M, K) soon and am wondering, as a non AAdvantage Member, am I completely out of the running for an upgrade, or if I could still make a request as OWE. I have only ever flown AA domestically in the US and I have been told that I show up as AA Exec Plat, but I know its not exactly the same and that I wouldn't have SWU. Any insights on what I'd be eligible for or what I could do in terms of a Y- J upgrade would be great. As a non-AA OWE, if seats remain (although I doubt it for ORD-NRT), where would I fall in the pecking order for an op-up? (or are the chances basically nil?) And finally, I would assume I wouldn't be able to use QR miles right? Thanks in advance!
ashbjr is offline  
Old Apr 13, 2018, 7:36 am
  #203  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,466
Originally Posted by ashbjr
Hello all, new to the AA boards. I am Qatar Plat, OWE and am flying NRT-ORD-NRT in Economy (seats are booked in M, K) soon and am wondering, as a non AAdvantage Member, am I completely out of the running for an upgrade, or if I could still make a request as OWE. I have only ever flown AA domestically in the US and I have been told that I show up as AA Exec Plat, but I know its not exactly the same and that I wouldn't have SWU. Any insights on what I'd be eligible for or what I could do in terms of a Y- J upgrade would be great. As a non-AA OWE, if seats remain (although I doubt it for ORD-NRT), where would I fall in the pecking order for an op-up? (or are the chances basically nil?) And finally, I would assume I wouldn't be able to use QR miles right? Thanks in advance!
On long haul flights, AA doesn't offer any type of free elite op-up to business (except in the very rare instances where coach is oversold and they need to move a few folks from Y to J, but the chances of this are so slim that it's not even worth discussing).

Without a SWU, the only way you can request an upgrade is with AA miles and copay, 25k + $350 each way. You're correct that you can't use QR miles to upgrade on AA.

The only other possible option is a LFBU kiosk upgrade, which are basically upgrade offers for cash if there are still business seats open on the day of departure (after all upgrade requests have cleared). If space is open, these are typically offered when you check in online or at an airport kiosk, although in the past at NRT I have seen signs offering this in the Admirals Club as well.
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JJeffrey is offline  
Old Apr 14, 2018, 6:06 am
  #204  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Titanium Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 64
UPGs aren't as easy as they used to be!

Originally Posted by VickiSoCal
He was at about 14K EQD's last year. This week he was number 2 on the waitlist LAX-JFK. Number 9 and 10 were upgraded from Business to First after boarding, no one else. AA says "business went out full" but won't say what happened to those 2 business seats. I suspect non-rev as he said several did not board when groups 1-4 boarded. He was number 5 coming back JFK-LAX, one got upgraded.

But that's a pretty typical pattern for this year. He's anywhere from 2 to 5 on the list and 0 to 2 people get upgraded, but not him. So I think he is in the right spot on the list for his EQDs.

It is really discouraging though. He's even been talking about just not wanting to do his job anymore.

The year is 25% over. 18 domestic flights, 3 upgrades. 19.9% of the way to qualifying again as an EXP on EQD's, 30.7% on EQM's. This will be his 11th year as an EXP if he does requal.

This sums up my experience to a T. I'm 3 for 13 this year (am DFW based, but flying to non-hub cities in most cases and many times on slower days of travel, Wed afternoons, Saturdays, etc). Used to hit 75-80% (was LGA/JFK based), now end up 2-5 on the list in most cases and have been as low as 10-15. My bigger frustration is lack of interest by in-flight staff in any thank you/recognition for EXP. Used to be very nice and offer to help me as they can (occasionally would give me full bottle of water, etc). Yesterday "No fresh food on plane!" was answer when I inquired about the cheese plate...and they seem annoyed I asked. I wonder if the flight attendants are as frustrated with the "New American" as the travelers. Will likely settle for PP next year as same day flight changes are the only real thing of value anymore. SWUs that used to once be useful are now down to 4...and nearly impossible to use except for DFW to Abilene type routes!
Rsherwin is offline  
Old Apr 15, 2018, 9:46 pm
  #205  
 
Join Date: May 2017
Location: Chicago
Programs: American ExPlat SPG Plat
Posts: 21
2 SWUs cleared for me and my wife for our flight NRT-ORD 4/7 roughly a few days in advance. Never received an email from AA. Alas it was my first time using SWUs, I was just happy they cleared. FWIW about $18k spent over the past 12 months.
BrockAdams is offline  
Old Apr 16, 2018, 9:44 am
  #206  
 
Join Date: Mar 2015
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 394
My ORD-CDG just cleared yesterday for outbound flight on 5/3.
chitink is offline  
Old Apr 16, 2018, 5:45 pm
  #207  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: USA
Programs: IHG/Spire Amb., Hilton/Diamond, SPG/Gold, Marriott/Gold, AA/Plat, Southwest/CP
Posts: 270
It's been a long time since I was elite, but I recently qualified to Platinum and wondering about my chances in general on a particular route of DFW-BDL. I don't have specific dates in mind yet, but just wondering if that's generally a route that I could hope to upgrade on with a companion. I have high EQD for a Plat (about 12K right now) but don't know if that's a heavily traveled route by EXPs/PPs such that my EQD won't even be a factor. Appreciate any advice.
LaphroaigAndRibeye is offline  
Old Apr 18, 2018, 12:45 pm
  #208  
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Titanium Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 64
Originally Posted by Steven6702
It's been a long time since I was elite, but I recently qualified to Platinum and wondering about my chances in general on a particular route of DFW-BDL. I don't have specific dates in mind yet, but just wondering if that's generally a route that I could hope to upgrade on with a companion. I have high EQD for a Plat (about 12K right now) but don't know if that's a heavily traveled route by EXPs/PPs such that my EQD won't even be a factor. Appreciate any advice.
I would guess you will not get it. I’m on a BOS - DFW flight right now (Wed afternoon at 2pm), and was #8 on UPG list as an EXP. At this rate, I would guess Platinum’s get 1 out of 15 or 1 out of 20 upgrades, especially if DFW is involved. Any Plat’s care to share?
Rsherwin is offline  
Old Apr 18, 2018, 4:34 pm
  #209  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by Rsherwin


I would guess you will not get it. I’m on a BOS - DFW flight right now (Wed afternoon at 2pm), and was #8 on UPG list as an EXP. At this rate, I would guess Platinum’s get 1 out of 15 or 1 out of 20 upgrades, especially if DFW is involved. Any Plat’s care to share?
With all due respect, you shouldn't even think about comparing BOS vs. BDL. Granted DFW is always tough for upgrades, but you'll have a much better success rate flying to smaller, lower-demand airports (e.g. BDL) as opposed to one of the toughest elite-upgrade routes (e.g. BOS-DFW, AUS-DFW, LGA-DFW, etc.). The upgrade will likely still be tough as you're still down a bit on the totem pole but I can't comment on that specific route given I've never flow in or out of BDL.
Finsup72 is offline  
Old Apr 18, 2018, 8:40 pm
  #210  
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Join Date: May 2013
Location: NYC
Programs: DL Diamond, AAdvantage EXP, Hyatt Explorist, HHonors Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 7,344
i had planned a last minute weekend trip to san juan and every single one of the 4 UPGs cleared at window and then today the entire island was hit with a power blackout lasting up to 36 hours, so i cancelled
AANYC1981 is offline  


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