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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Dec 17, 2017, 12:15 pm
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: aztimm
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
      • Executive Platinum
        • Platinum Pro
          • Platinum
            • Gold
    • Upgrade type
      1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
        • 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
          • 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)

      • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
        • Booking class
          • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

Link to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 17 Dec 2017 by aztimm
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Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (2018 master thread)

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Old Jul 19, 2018, 4:01 pm
  #406  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,304
Reposted original in another thread

Last edited by beachfan; Jul 20, 2018 at 8:55 am
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Old Jul 19, 2018, 4:52 pm
  #407  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Kirkland, WA
Programs: AS 75K,UA Gold 1.6MM, Hilton Dia, Marriott LT Plat, Hyatt Glb, Natl Exec, Hertz 5*
Posts: 3,657
I have been observing the upgrade clearance on my regular two flights to see what my chances will be as I move up the ranks and here is what I have observed so far.
On my outbound Monday 545a SEA-CLT I am seeing upgrade chances being pretty good. I sometimes see a blank upgrade list and my one time as a Plat with e500s I was able to clear into the last seat available.
For my Thursday 4:30p CLT-SEA, it is much harder. I sometimes see Group 2 boarders so some Plat Pros did not clear into First, Group 1. On most of my Plat e500 attempts I am in 1st - 3rd on the list but I see J0 usually in the morning already. I did clear once as a Plat with e500s but have made about 4 attempts so far. I do think that when I hit Plat Pro in a few weeks that I will have a good chance on the outbound and maybe a 25-30% chance on the return. That may improve further after summer.

I am still cursing AA for not allowing any status matching or a challenge beyond Plat. It has been a long hard climb up the ranks to catch up to my granted Plat status and then exceed. I haven't had to do that climb since I became a UA regular in 2005.
dmodemd is offline  
Old Jul 19, 2018, 7:30 pm
  #408  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 214
Originally Posted by dmodemd
I sometimes see Group 2 boarders so some Plat Pros did not clear into First, Group 1.
Group 2 is only Executive Platinum and Oneworld Emerald, so if you see anyone in Group 2, they are likely Executive Platinums who did not clear their upgrades. There are no Platinum Pros in this group, unless of course they decided to jump the line from Group 3 and instead board in Group 2 which seems to be a regular occurrence at AA as the gate agents do not enforce boarding groups very well.
T. Sanderson likes this.
Finsup72 is offline  
Old Jul 19, 2018, 9:24 pm
  #409  
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
AA 71 FRA => DFW on 7/20 - upgraded using SWU 24 hours out.
remedy is offline  
Old Jul 19, 2018, 9:28 pm
  #410  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
Originally Posted by tomj888
As an Exec Plat, I've seen my free upgrades diminish. I seem to end up #1 on the list. Fly LAX-IND and scored an upgrade at T24. Not bad for an 8 seat F cabin on A319. Prior to this year, I would say my upgrade percentage was about 60%. Primary markets I fly domestic are LAX- DFW, ORD, SFO and an occasional JFK.
I also fly that route and I usually avoid the direct because of the schedule (10am) and the 2 row F in the 319. The alternative of LAX-DFW is almost impossible being a hub to hub.
TSparky is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2018, 8:20 am
  #411  
Original Poster
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,581
DEN-CLT-DCA for this coming Tuesday morning cleared at 100 hours (A321/A319).

I continue to clear upgrades on the majority of my domestic flights, with a lot of them coming at 100 hours.
bse118 is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2018, 12:25 pm
  #412  
 
Join Date: Jul 2018
Location: JFK
Programs: AA Executive Platinum, Marriott Platinum Elite, Hilton Gold
Posts: 29
Long time reader, first time poster...decided it was time to start contributing.

SEA-ORD-DCA today on the way back from a work trip. 12/30 on the upgrade list for SEA-ORD, but cleared ORD-DCA (which is now delayed ~40 minutes and leaves later this afternoon) segment a little over 24 hours out. Flight is at an odd time back to DC, so I'm sure that helped. I have cleared DCA-ORD once before a couple of months ago.

FWIW, I made Platinum with a challenge earlier this year, will requalify for next year next week, and have already booked enough flights to get me to EXP later this year--my 12-month rolling EQD is probably at the upper end of Platinum.
dcfit is offline  
Old Jul 20, 2018, 12:45 pm
  #413  
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: UIN
Programs: AA EXP 2MM Hilton Diamond Bon Voy Lifetime Platinum Elite
Posts: 59
Anybody want to guess on my wife and I using SWU on LAX-HKG and back? I am about 15k EQD ... flying out on a wed (10/3) and return back on Sat (10/6)
I have had good success using SWU on this route before but never when trying to upgrade more than myself.. .We are current book in PEY
gboots is offline  
Old Jul 21, 2018, 7:50 am
  #414  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 228
Decent success rate this weekend:

RDU-PHL-DTW-PHL-RDU - 75% success so far. 2 cleared at t24 and 1 at t0.5. Hoping the final leg clears at the gate tomorrow.

I’m GLD currently, so only any hope on short hops, despite rolling EQD of $15K.
thedeeg is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 6:55 am
  #415  
 
Join Date: Jan 2018
Posts: 228
100% success rate in the end.

Made the 3:30AM start a bit more bearable.
thedeeg is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 1:32 pm
  #416  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,304
I learned that if you use miles/copay and then board because they said they'd get you, then your chances of upgrading are close to 100%. They got CKs and SWUs users but passed me over to a ExPlat lower on the list relying on complimentary upgrades because the said they didn't have time to process the copay if I've boarded. In spite of telling me they'd get me.

I argued (not loudly), escalated (was lucky a supervisor gate agent came on board), argues more, and finally got it (I said if you are giving it away because of time constraints, I'm also eligible for free upgrades). I was #7 on the list, I saw on the app #9 cleared, and that's when I got up to speak to the gate agent who just came on board.

I got it because 5&6 didn't want to split up, so I cleared. But it's a tough choice - give up your upgrade or give up a place to put your carry-on.

If it clears prior to gate control, the payment is automatic, why not at the gate?
beachfan is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 2:26 pm
  #417  
 
Join Date: Mar 2016
Programs: AA-EXP
Posts: 615
[QUOTE=beachfan;30001454]I learned that if you use miles/copay and then board because they said they'd get you, then your chances of upgrading are close to 100%. They got CKs and SWUs users but passed me over to a ExPlat lower on the list relying on complimentary upgrades because the said they didn't have time to process the copay if I've boarded. In spite of telling me they'd get me.
...
[/QUOTE

Was this international or domestic? Also, I don't understand why they cant process all upgrades before boarding apart from waiting for F pax that might have just landed.
Uzzar is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 6:26 pm
  #418  
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: SoCal
Programs: AA EXP, HHonors LTDia, Marriott Plat
Posts: 639
EXP with 30k EQD
DFW-IND was showing 13 or 16 seats available but didn't clear until t-22h
DFW-LAX I was 3 of 37 and didn't clear - 789 is always a tough upgrade on this route. I'm lucky to clear 1 in 5.
TSparky is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 8:11 pm
  #419  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: DFW
Programs: AA EXP, LT Gold
Posts: 3,146
DFW-SNA departing 14:35 today. I was #2 on the list. No one cleared. F seemed to be full for the past week or so. I’m about $21K rolling EQD. My colleague is just a bit less and was #4 on the list.
econometrics is offline  
Old Jul 22, 2018, 10:18 pm
  #420  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: PHL (kinda, no airport is really close)
Programs: AA Exp, but not sure for how long. Enterprise Platinum woo-hoo!
Posts: 4,550
Question about upgrades (I hope this is the right thread):

Suppose I am PlatPro and flying with a non-status companion on the same record on a non-award ticket. Is it true that we will both get upgraded based on my priority, and that if we do I'll have to pay for her upgrade with stickers?

What happens if I'm on a paid ticket and she's on an award ticket? I don't know if PP are even eligible for upgrades on award tix.
redtop43 is offline  


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