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Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

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Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

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Old Nov 3, 2017, 9:10 pm
  #76  
 
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Do tell. I didnt see a single person with an EQD deficit who was offered equal to or less than the difference where they stood and the target. I may be wrong for PP and Plat, but for EXP I know the target is 12k and all the people posting who were under 12k were posting offers that fit what I said.

Originally Posted by brp
Actually, if you look at the data in that thread, you will find that the correlation you suggest does not exist. The relationship between the EQD delta and the buy-up offer seems non-existent.

Cheers.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 10:25 pm
  #77  
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Originally Posted by stephem
Do tell. I didnt see a single person with an EQD deficit who was offered equal to or less than the difference where they stood and the target. I may be wrong for PP and Plat, but for EXP I know the target is 12k and all the people posting who were under 12k were posting offers that fit what I said.
This one stands out. 21.6K EQD (and 14K short on EQM) and offered to pay more than me at 10.4K EQD

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/29015754-post132.html

Seems odd to me...an outlier, perhaps.

Cheers.
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Old Nov 4, 2017, 9:50 am
  #78  
 
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Originally Posted by brp
This one stands out. 21.6K EQD (and 14K short on EQM) and offered to pay more than me at 10.4K EQD

https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/29015754-post132.html

Seems odd to me...an outlier, perhaps.

Cheers.
Does it make a difference because he's currently PPRO and not EXP so it's a buy up vs a buyback?
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Old Nov 4, 2017, 10:23 am
  #79  
 
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Originally Posted by enviroian
Not everyone lives in New York.

West coast Y fares to the UK are solidly $1400 easy.
One big reason. You are in DFW and AA would like to charge you as much as possible. You may want to fly OneWorld partners to see if you can get a better deal out of this.

I would say there will be slightly less EXPs but there are still quite a few around.

To OP, it goes down to whether or not this is important to you and your family. Whatever you do, you want to make sure if your family is going to be ok with it.

Safe travels.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 1:21 pm
  #80  
 
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Speculation: 2018 Potential Executive Platinum Membership Reduction

Forgive me if this is being discussed elsewhere in the AA forum.

I was curious how the FT community felt about a potential reduction in ExPlat numbers as a result of the EQD requirement.

Do you think there will be a noticeable drop, or will membership numbers remain relatively steady compared to years past?


Last edited by FlyingFrZ; Dec 27, 2017 at 1:46 pm
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 1:50 pm
  #81  
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I speculate it will drop - but not a ton. FT heavily skews in favor of people doing "weird" (to the rest of the world) things like tacking on segments and mileage running. I would say that the people affected would be the MR folk, the retired/self-employed/lots of vacation international Y leisure travel folk and maybe some discount transcon flyers.

flying domestically enough to make EXP (either by segments or miles) typically means that you have long surpassed the 12k EQD requirement in my experience.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 2:03 pm
  #82  
 
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Existing thread here: Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

TLDR: No one here knows.

I, for one, found it easier to requal as EXP under the new system (and by FT standards I am a low EQD EXP - I fly a lot of discount Y on international long haul.)
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 2:10 pm
  #83  
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Originally Posted by bse118
I, for one, found it easier to requal as EXP under the new system (and by FT standards I am a low EQD EXP - I fly a lot of discount Y on international long haul.)
How so?

discount Y is still the same EQMs as before, so shouldn't it be the same? Or am I missing something?
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 2:15 pm
  #84  
 
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Originally Posted by Antarius
How so?

discount Y is still the same EQMs as before, so shouldn't it be the same? Or am I missing something?
A couple trips in premium economy on partners, that provided a big EQD/EQM boost that IIRC wasn't as significant under the previous system.

I ended with more EQM this year (compared to last year) on less butt-in-seat miles.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 2:20 pm
  #85  
 
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Originally Posted by bse118
Existing thread here: Speculation: Safe To Say There Will Be Fewer EXP In 2018 ?

TLDR: No one here knows.

I, for one, found it easier to requal as EXP under the new system (and by FT standards I am a low EQD EXP - I fly a lot of discount Y on international long haul.)
Thanks for the link

I personally thought I was not going to qualify for ExPlat again this year, but the Barclays Silver EQD boost, as well as cheap partner premium fares put me well over 12k EQD.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 2:21 pm
  #86  
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Originally Posted by bse118
A couple trips in premium economy on partners, that provided a big EQD/EQM boost that if IIRC wasn't as significant under the previous system.

I ended with more EQM this year on less butt-in-seat miles.
Ah ha. Thanks for the reply/info - yes, I believe PE earnings have improved.

I got a absurdly cheap QR J fare from IAH to SIN, which counted for 28000 EQM and 4800 EQD, so that helped me a lot.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 3:00 pm
  #87  
 
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I actually think the number of EXP's will increase. With domestic J fares giving 2X EQM (at about a 2X more expensive fare), it only takes 50K EQM to qualify. Subtract 10K EQM from Barclay and 10K EQM from Citi (if you meet the max from each) then you only need 40K EQM to qualify for EXP (80K/2) when you buy J fares.

Generally I see you can get J fares at 2X the price of discounted coach. If you factor in the $6K EQD from Barclay, the EQD requirement is only $6K.

So if you buy some premium cabin flights on AA or partners and do some domestic flying in J - EXP is only 40K EQM and $6K EQD. Lots of people are going to make that. More and more people that buy some business international fares are going to make it.

On one of my last AA flights this year (early Dec) - I was number 11 (as EXP) on the upgrade list. And only 1 person cleared. So most in F were on paid tickets and many more EXPs. Likely overlap from last years EXP and many more newly minted EXPs .
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 3:23 pm
  #88  
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Originally Posted by sky_throwaway
Deciding on a potential "miles run" to retain EXP with the purchase of a J class ticket to Asia. Figuring there will be even less now with the EQD minimum.

Will have 100k EQMs and 9k EQD come mid December. Travel domestically very often and a few times a year to Tokyo and Hong Kong. Have been lucky where all of my system wide upgrades have been approved far in advance and I have only *not* been upgraded 3 flights out of 25 or so.

Big question : Is it worth me purchasing a $3000 biz class to Tokyo, to ensure being at the top of the upgrade list domestically and what could/wold likely be another four free upgrades in Y on longhaul flights for next year.

Decisions, decisions. Any insight is appreciated!
You could make it more interesting to see if you can get another 50K EQMs for 3K EQDs and hit EXP and the 150K Bonus SWUs.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 3:28 pm
  #89  
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Originally Posted by cova
I actually think the number of EXP's will increase. With domestic J fares giving 2X EQM (at about a 2X more expensive fare), it only takes 50K EQM to qualify. Subtract 10K EQM from Barclay and 10K EQM from Citi (if you meet the max from each) then you only need 40K EQM to qualify for EXP (80K/2) when you buy J fares.

Generally I see you can get J fares at 2X the price of discounted coach. If you factor in the $6K EQD from Barclay, the EQD requirement is only $6K.

So if you buy some premium cabin flights on AA or partners and do some domestic flying in J - EXP is only 40K EQM and $6K EQD. Lots of people are going to make that. More and more people that buy some business international fares are going to make it.

On one of my last AA flights this year (early Dec) - I was number 11 (as EXP) on the upgrade list. And only 1 person cleared. So most in F were on paid tickets and many more EXPs. Likely overlap from last years EXP and many more newly minted EXPs .
This is true.. but paid J EXP, while EXP or CK, aren't in the same bucket as Y booking EXPs.. meaning those who buy J may make EXP faster, but they do not necessarily compete for upgrades with those who are in Y and trying to get to J.
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Old Dec 27, 2017, 4:29 pm
  #90  
 
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Wish my routes had J fares double discounted Y. On lax-Mia, it’s more like 5x
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