Kreative03

While it's hard to actively apply economic principles to anything AA does, I thought I'd start a thread where we can speculate at what point within each status tier that earning any additional EQD will add little to no value in terms of upgrade or other items.

I think this is a topic that many of us here are thinking about, but aren't quite sure about the value that we receive, relative to the value of our loyalty. Now, obviously this would never apply to someone who spends well beyond what it takes to achieve their tier -- e.g. $12k but only has enough eqm for gold.

But surely there's value to be attained at somewhere between minimum to acheive status, average eqd of each status, and those who are nearly at eqd minimum of the next level but are under on eqm or segs.....and other terminal data points.

What say the community?

rjw242

If the question is "is status worth it," this has been discussed here for nearly two decades if not more

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/ameri...tus-worth.html

kb9522

You mean what percentile a given EQD puts you in to try to statistically optimize upgrade chances within a tier based on rolling EQD window?

I'm not sure anyone who doesn't work for AA has the data to answer that question... And I doubt anyone who works at AA that does have access to that information would be allowed to release it...

oysterhead43

If people posted their upgrade order and EQD, we would have data points.

rjw242

Not really.

muishkin

You could sample the EXPs on FT using a poll and see what the EQD distribution looks like for them.

I am not sure the EXP population on FT is representative of the EXP population in general but we'll never have access to AA's data so that is probably the best you can do.

knit-in

it really seems like a crapshoot at this point.

josmul123

Statistically speaking, the more EQD's you have, the higher your chances... With no diminishing returns, unless you're flying routes with full paid F cabins.

Catbert10

Of course there has to be diminishing returns. As a thought experiment, someone out there has the highest rolling EQD total for an EXP. That person trumps any other EXP. Adding $1 to that person's EQD total won't increase their chances. The marginal value for increased spend (in terms of upgrade chances) is 0.

My guess is that the peak of the distribution curve is higher than $12K but I have no real idea how much. Anyway, the point in which your EQD total begins to make your upgrade chances nearly %100 will be route and schedule dependent. But once you reach the level that your upgrades become nearly automatic, then you've reached the point of diminishing returns (for upgrades).

When upgrades were time based, I found that booking travel 4-6 weeks out gave me a 98-100% upgrade rate when connecting passengers had priority, and ~95% upgrade rate after the connecting priority change. Therefore, it didn't make sense for me to book any further out because it wouldn't increase my upgrade chances. Similarly there will be an EQD point where my upgrade percentage will be in that range, but it's a lot harder to experiment with EQD totals than it is to experiment with booking times.

swag

The other big variable, of course, is the routes you usually fly. If you're a Gold flying LGA-DFW on a Thursday afternoon, no amount of EQD will get you anywhere near the top of the upgrade list. On the other side of the coin, if you're an EXP going MSY-DCA on a Wednesday morning, EQD won't matter since you'll be near 100% on the upgrades anyway.

For those who fly regular routes, your own experiences are the best guide. If you regularly find yourself missing upgrades by just 1 or 2 spots on the list, then strive for those extra EQDs.

Stripe

Not sure how one would "strive for those extra EQDs". The better use of those $ may be to just buy F outright.

flyingmusicianlax

Yes and no. For a lot of us, it makes more sense to juice the EQDs flying on premium partner fares that through buying F on AA all the time. Saved me at least $3,000 this year while getting that much extra in EQDs.

Also, spend A LOT of money on your Aviator card if you can.

Kreative03

Some fair points made within. I agree everything is route specific, but there are surely a subset of fliers who are interested in preserving the value they get from AA before moving their business to other airlines as well. This exodus doesn't just happen at EXP but at gold, plat, platpro as well.

For me, I'm starting to think about when all things are equal, flying UA on short haul instead. I don't need my upgrades on 200-800 mile flights to make me happy, and I'm already booked into well over 15 EQD. I rarely fly paid first unless my schedule is such that I need to, so I'm constantly in the upgrade hunt for longer flights.

Keep the insights coming...

nk15

I guess the whole point of this discussion is when you could/should start moving some flights to other carriers, assuming you want this. This is very subjective. One rule of thumb may be when you hit an 80-90% upgrade rate average on your routes? And assuming of course some other flights on other carriers are either way cheaper, or you have status there as well, or something that makes them attractive for you to do so. This whole topic is very subjective and multifactorial.

For me personally, after making EXP is the point where I would decide some flights on price. Even after EXP, if two flights are close in price, I would go with AA. For flights under two hours I would generally go with price. Now with the basic fares in the equation, this is much more complicated.

Kreative03

As I'm thinking more on this point, once we hit end of qualification year, this year, we are going to forever live on rolling eqd. Which means you can create silly strategies e.g. dump as much eqd into nov-dec and then cruise the following year....spend 3k per quarter, get your aviator spend in traditionally high travel times for you to stack odds....etc etc.

Maybe there's no magic math. This game got exponentially harder.