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-   -   Is it time to hoard miles – will their value go up? (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/american-airlines-aadvantage/1813891-time-hoard-miles-will-their-value-go-up.html)

writetorich Jan 8, 17 9:08 pm

Is it time to hoard miles – will their value go up?
 
My view, IMHO, on AA miles.

I currently am sitting on 730,000 miles from when I "earned "1 million miles in less than 4 weeks just prior to the changeover from "all miles count" to MM Status to " only tushy in the seat miles counts". Personal circumstances had me traveling a lot less right after January 2012 or the fall of Saigon. I was a lowly gold with 1,005,000 lifetime miles and decided to jump for the 2 million.

I use to value a mile at 2.5 cents.-- maybe 3 cents I was never a "hoarder" , even with a million lifetime, My balance was very low. I always kept only enough for one spur of the moment premium cabin trip. ( I was single at the time) or an ultra expensive domestic on short notice for work ( was self employed) , even though its tax deductible a $2000 domestic fare was still a lot to pay.

I always viewed miles as redeem them while you can. "Smoke em if you got em"
My view unlike others mentalities , it was not a " Vacation Retirement RA" for future use. The mileage balance was at AA capricious unilateral rules subject to change at any time and could only go down.

Now my view has changed, I am bullish on the future value of AA miles. Its gotten so bad that I think a mile is currently 0.8 to 1.0 cents. And a penny is the upper end. more like 0.8 cents. I think the 0.8 cents is a rock bottom ratchet

However, given that AA has
1- surprisingly not allowed high annual fee affinity CITI cards with high annual spend to partially offset or eliminate the dollar revenue required for status ( maybe a pissing match or an "ambivalent" i.e. love hate relationship with Citi) , the ranks of Elites will thin. ( Barclays still does)

2- the elimination of mileage based accrual will reduce hard core FT'er hobbyist from achieving Exec plat and Plat for a pittance.

3- Earning miles ( other than lucrative sign up bonuses on a new credit card for a new card holder ) will no longer be easy.

4- Like any "currency" , once you reduce inflation and just printing the "money" ( miles) and putting it into circulation, and reduce macro circulation the value will rise.

I'm not expert , but my view is that people who fly a lot AND spend a lot will not be happy with the crazy award levels. Domestically, I never see Saaver , unless at 5 am with the rooster with a connection.

5- Unless AA changes and allows credit card spend to count toward the annual dollar spend requirements, I see a lot of thinning of elites.-- in the past , I got Hilton HHonors Diamond by spend on the Amex surpass card. I was in no way a "road warrior" I remember back when Delta ( who I hated) allowed TOP TIER via Amex spend on several cards because Amex kept sky team afloat and Delta in business during times of over capacity and weak economy,

As the circulation and massive distribution of miles by AA , dries up, they will have to reply to customer complaints that "I don't want to spend 80,000 round trip to fly to Florida in December".

Now that 80,000 miles represents, about $8000 in spend and a family of three , its $24,000 and a lot of time in a seat.

wishing everyone in our community a happy , healthy 2017

Since, I'm not that smart, what do others think??

I think that once AA successfully takes miles out of circulation via the high miles required , we'll see some positive changes on the REDEMPTION front.

Please opine.

JDiver Jan 8, 17 9:12 pm

I respectfully and heartily disagree.

I believe if one is inclined to travel and can use miles reasonably no or in the near future, one should do so, because there will inevitably be inflation (if the past is any indication of he future). I'd not spend just to spend if he dollar:mile ratio is not in my favor.

And AA does in fact allow (Barclaycard AAdvantage Aviation Red an Silver MasterCard) spend to offset to EQD requirements.

writetorich Jan 8, 17 9:14 pm

Jdiver- what do you currently value an AA mile?

JDiver Jan 8, 17 9:19 pm


Originally Posted by writetorich (Post 27728611)
Jdiver- what do you currently value an AA mile?

The value I assess depends on what I can score, not a fixed but rather a dynamic rate.

E.g. one way SFO-LIS fova recent repositioning cruise was priced at ~2.5-3.0 the round trip price, so 55,000 miles per person in J represented good value to me. But with he new variable "price" on award seats, one has to be assiduous and tenacious.

Centurion Jan 8, 17 9:33 pm

Up in value? How can you explain the fact that you find an over the water partner award in biz or F but the First class domestic usa must now be in saver or you entire trip gets AAnytime pricing. This was a hidden devaluation that is discussed in many threads

writetorich Jan 8, 17 9:57 pm

Yeah I agree with you
 

Originally Posted by Centurion (Post 27728679)
Up in value? How can you explain the fact that you find an over the water partner award in biz or F but the First class domestic usa must now be in saver or you entire trip gets AAnytime pricing. This was a hidden devaluation that is discussed in many threads

Yeah I agree with you
will go up in value in the future . Its no longer a perishable intangible that need be redeemed at low values.
The value and options for redemption have been gutted.

But it's harder to earn miles and harder to be elite.

Hence I see things improving.

We are already at rock bottom for the program.
look at DOW in 2009.
now look at it.

writetorich Jan 8, 17 10:11 pm


Originally Posted by JDiver (Post 27728631)
The value I assess depends on what I can score, not a fixed but rather a dynamic rate.

E.g. one way SFO-LIS fova recent repositioning cruise was priced at ~2.5-3.0 the round trip price, so 55,000 miles per person in J represented good value to me. But with he new variable "price" on award seats, one has to be assiduous and tenacious.

The value is what you as a willing buyer would pay for AA miles. It's not really dynamic. ( and no I am not offering to sell a program violation and FT violation
and it goes against my premise that I am bullish.)

Yeah some good deal are out there. I've gotten LGA-NYC shuttle flights at 7500 miles in coach. I also saw NYC- Montreal at 7500 miles ( one way )

I redeem TWO round tixs on the LGA - DCA shuttle for 30K miles ( 7.5 K ) per way per person. A mere pittance to someone with over 700K miles.
Thats 3 cents a mile.

So it's not about the outlier or unique redemption that I am talking about.

Right now I don't have surplus cash. and am not in the market for more AA miles. I have more miles than money at the present moment.

But prior to financial reversals , if i had discretionary cash in bank-- which I don't--- I would be likewarm and ambivalent to buy at 0.8 cents.

Where as in 2008, I would gladly pay 2.0 cents.

So I'd say it's not really dynamic , its what you personally as a non distressed willing buyer would pay for more AA miles.

I was curious what other thought about trying to hang onto miles for the time being.
years back, once , I had GOLD , I did not worry about making PLAT and redeemed when possible. -- unless it was a really bad value obviously--


I see better days ahead for AAdvantage redemption value.

no1cub17 Jan 8, 17 10:22 pm

Hahaha - I mean you're certainly entitled to your view. Hoarding miles has never been and will never be a good idea. But you're certainly free to hoard as many as you want - I'm sure AA doesn't mind.

The complete and utter absence of premium saaver and for the most part confirmable upgrades was ok when AA's award chart was still superior (and earnings were easier). Now? UA and Star are so much better for redemptions - it's not even funny.

But to each their own!

Col Ronson Jan 8, 17 10:23 pm

I never redeem award flights for myself, only for others where i dont like spending money on them ( i find that paying for flights that dont go towards elite status is a waste i.e. the leisure traveler ;) )

So i spend as i need to.

writetorich Jan 8, 17 10:34 pm


Originally Posted by no1cub17 (Post 27728823)
ok when AA's award chart was still superior (and earnings were easier). Now? UA and Star are so much better for redemptions - it's not even funny.

But to each their own!

Yeah , but FT'ers use to bi-ch and moan about AAnytime being double a saver with no delineation or variance for high travel demand dates.

I was in a minority. I always felt true last seat availability from a Y bucket , a J bucket or an F bucket for twice was a great deal.

Lets look at economy. A full Y bucket REVENUE tix was a lot more DOUBLE than a cheapo bottom feeder REVENUE econ tix ( "T" class?) .

but others complained about double AWARD price. I found it very fair.

rjw242 Jan 8, 17 11:18 pm

I've had a few beers tonight but what is this?

shawn67 Jan 8, 17 11:19 pm

I've wondered about this myself. Since miles are getting more difficult to accumulate is the value that AA will place on them go up? Will we ever see again in the future 100% bonuses for buying miles.

tkelvin69 Jan 9, 17 12:07 am

I agree that miles have become more valuable as a result of the decreased ability to accrue them at the same rate. Some of might remember the days of flying 100,000 miles for ~$3,000 would result in 300,000 miles (100% bonus plus sticker conversion). That $3,000 will now be 33,000 miles.

Microwave Jan 9, 17 1:12 am


Originally Posted by writetorich (Post 27728584)
Now my view has changed, I am bullish on the future value of AA miles. Its gotten so bad that I think a mile is currently 0.8 to 1.0 cents. And a penny is the upper end. more like 0.8 cents. I think the 0.8 cents is a rock bottom ratchet

However, given that AA has
1- surprisingly not allowed high annual fee affinity cards with high annual spend to partially offset or eliminate the dollar revenue required for status ( maybe a pissing match or an "ambivalent" i.e. love hate relationship with Citi) , the ranks of Elites will thin.

You've missed me there; US-based frequent flyers (:mad:) can indeed spend their way out of the EQD requirement for Gold or Platinum completely, or offset 50-66% of the EQD requirement of the higher elite levels. EQDs will surely thin the higher ranks to some extent (certainly for us heretofore-loyal foreign-based elites—did I mention :mad:?), but between EQD earning on partners and their Barclaycard deal they've lowered the bar substantially.

Max M Jan 9, 17 1:52 am

The somewhat recent move by AA to change how miles are earned when flying simply puts them on par with Delta and United in terms of how miles are earned.

Yes, people will be earning fewer miles because of miles being earned on fares, but there are many people out there that still have mileage account balances that are 6 or 7 figures. Over time, as people redeem the miles, yes there were be fewer miles collectively "banked" across in accounts.

As long as Citi and Barclays continue to allow churning, and AA continues to offer 100% bonuses on miles purchased directly from AA, there are still ways for people to have a decent 'bank' of miles.

Now, if AA, across the board, dramatically increases sAAver level award inventory then the miles could be worth more than present-- and IMHO that's the ONLY way the miles could be more valuable than today.

Before the AA/US merger, AA had the best overall availability for sAAver level awards on their own metal, and DL was the worst--- with DL's SkyMiles earning the term SkyPesos by FT'ers. Fast forward to 2017, and DL's redemption rates at saver levels on their own metal aren't the worst among the Global 3 U.S. carriers--- now it's AA taking the lead with the fewest number of saver inventory seats.

In a few years, when AA follows what DL is doing, and has award pricing for Premium Economy Awards, you'll see Business and First Class award redemption rates increase correspondingly for those cabins-- both at the sAAver and AAnytime levels.

apeortdz Jan 9, 17 4:19 am

Based on my Excel spreadsheet and a rigorous mathematical analysis over a period of several years, I value miles at 1.5c each. YMMV of course.

golfingboy Jan 9, 17 5:31 am

Miles will not go up in value, probably ever, unless AA wants to explain to their investors why they are seeing a drastic reduction in offloading AAdvantage liability on their balance sheets.

My prediction, in 3-5 years redemption will be $$$ based similar to how we buy tickets with CC points. The huge upside will be we can book any seat, but we have to pay what that seat is worth.

PHLGovFlyer Jan 9, 17 6:49 am

IMO trying to apply a supply and demand model to the worth of FF miles is incomplete. This is simply because the airlines have such a high degree of control over how easy/difficult it is to redeem them.

andyr Jan 9, 17 9:28 am


Originally Posted by Centurion (Post 27728679)
Up in value? How can you explain the fact that you find an over the water partner award in biz or F but the First class domestic usa must now be in saver or you entire trip gets AAnytime pricing. This was a hidden devaluation that is discussed in many threads

I assume you are referring to the lack of availability of domestic F saver awards as the stealth devaluation? It has always been true that all segments have to be in saver to use a saver award, but it used to be that scoring the J or F flight to Oz or Asia was the high five event. Now it is scoring the Y, J or F award in saver inventory from BOS to PHL.

And, yes, I realize that you can just buy that segment for short money, but (a) two tickets are harder to deal with in several ways; (b) you just shouldn't have to; (c) makes it hard when you are trying to change a BOS/PHL/CDG ticket when you can find PHL or JFK to CDG but not BOS to the gateway. Arghh.

javabytes Jan 9, 17 9:50 am

The whole point of these changes - on both the earn side as well as the burn side - are intended to decrease what the airline gives back. Just because you are earning less miles now doesn't mean that the miles you earn will be worth more... that would undo what the airline is trying to accomplish.

The opportunities for high value redemptions exist only as long as the award charts are around. Once awards start to get priced based on the corresponding cash fare (and in my view we're not far off), things become much less interesting.

Dave Noble Jan 9, 17 9:50 am

The OP argument seems to be that cost is the same as value and that because it costs more to get a mile, that it is worth more

With value being defined as "The worth of something compared to the price paid or asked for it" , this seems flawed

The worth of miles has dropped significantly over the years. For instance 150,000 miles could provide a circular trip of 26.000 miles with stopovers. More recently 120,000 miles could provide a r/t from Europe-South Pacific worth GBP2000 ; now the same trip requires 41% more at 170,000 ( 1st class raised 53% from 150,000 to 230,000 )

Cost of buying miles used to be ( iirc ) $1000 for 40k (plus taxes and fees) whereas now it costs $1180 ( 18% increase )

The worth of miles to me was around GBP2000 for 120k miles ( 1 mile worth 1.67p ) but at 170k miles 1 mile is worth 1.17p

With cost increasing by 18% but worth dropping by 30% , I cannot see how can argue that the value has increased in this situation. I know that some redemptions have dropped in price, but don't think that there are likely to be many where the worth has increased by more than the cost

Herb687 Jan 9, 17 10:20 am


Originally Posted by writetorich (Post 27728749)
look at DOW in 2009.
now look at it.

Ridiculous analogy. Airline miles are not a security.

Has any loyalty "currency" ever appreciated over any long-term time period?

QueenOfCoach Jan 9, 17 10:22 am

It has never been, in the past, wise to hoard miles. Miles have always been devalued, thus in my opinion, Earn And Burn is the wisest course of action.

Even after heavy advertising "Get Something For Nothing", they are loathe to give away something for nothing.

s0ssos Jan 9, 17 10:27 am

Wow, this is the silliest thing I've read all day. Award levels ALWAYS go up. And if you want to use the (flawed) money analogy, then think about this: rich people don't keep all the money in cash. It is just stupid.

bucketlist Jan 9, 17 10:42 am

1.5 CPM +
 
The miles probably have more value than this, but 1.5 cpm is my threshold value for use. Miles typically yield more value, e.g.,for longhaul C flights.

For EXP, there's value in fully flexible, or at least cancellable, award ticket reservations. Book an award ticket for a family member - if they can't get time off or whatever, cancel the ticket or cancel if a cheaper purchased ticket becomes available.

imapilotaz Jan 9, 17 10:44 am

I understand what the OP is trying to argue. In the past accruing 300k RDMs for about $4k was easy. Today to get 300k RDMs would cost $27,200. So while before you could literally spend airline miles like funny money (and many, many people did), it would make sense to evaluate does it make sense at that XYZ redemption to use miles, or to pay cash. Before, outside of very minor instances it was almost always better to use miles (cash is king). How many of us were flying to Asia for $500 and then getting 35k RDMs for it? So spending 25k miles on a $300 ticket wasn't absurd.

Today, unless you MS the vast majority on here will earn fewer RDMs, which in a sense make the miles accrued "more valuable", since the ability to replenish our supply of them went up in price. So while "hoarding" makes no sense, the ability to easily earn 400k RDMs a year is gone for many of us, and so the willingness and ability to spend in large amounts diminishes.

In theory over the long haul, this should help increase the availability of awards as people earn fewer miles and ultimately use more than they are earning each year.

scubadu Jan 9, 17 2:39 pm


Originally Posted by imapilotaz (Post 27731492)
In theory over the long haul, this should help increase the availability of awards as people earn fewer miles and ultimately use more than they are earning each year.

We shall see. Sometimes things that make sense "in theory" don't actually work out in practice...

Regards

Col Ronson Jan 9, 17 4:24 pm


Originally Posted by scubadu (Post 27732999)
We shall see. Sometimes things that make sense "in theory" don't actually work out in practice...

Regards

Also its been stated that the majority of frequent flier miles out there are not earned thru flying but thru other channels (credit cards make up a good %)

Centurion Jan 9, 17 4:32 pm

For the record I expect an 90% devaluation of miles in less than five years. Can you say "S&H Green Stamps"?

JonNYC Jan 9, 17 4:36 pm


Originally Posted by Centurion (Post 27733615)
For the record I expect an 90% devaluation of miles in less than five years...

For the record, 0% chance of anything even remotely like that.

sukn Jan 9, 17 5:37 pm

With the changes in how Aadvanage now awards miles for flying, one of the impacts moving forward will be that "miles concentration" will be among fewer people.

The few people that spend a lot will now earn significantly more miles, while the folks who spend less on flying will earn far fewer miles than before.

With fewer people competing for award seats, how that reshapes the landscape, if at all, will be interesting to watch -- since in theory AA will have to find a way to keep these 'super profitable' customers happy.

writetorich Jan 9, 17 5:39 pm


Originally Posted by imapilotaz (Post 27731492)
I understand what the OP is trying to argue. In the past accruing 300k RDMs for about $4k was easy. Today to get 300k RDMs would cost $27,200. So while before you could literally spend airline miles like funny money (and many, many people did), it would make sense to evaluate does it make sense at that XYZ redemption to use miles, or to pay cash. Before, outside of very minor instances it was almost always better to use miles (cash is king). How many of us were flying to Asia for $500 and then getting 35k RDMs for it? So spending 25k miles on a $300 ticket wasn't absurd.

Today, unless you MS the vast majority on here will earn fewer RDMs, which in a sense make the miles accrued "more valuable", since the ability to replenish our supply of them went up in price. So while "hoarding" makes no sense, the ability to easily earn 400k RDMs a year is gone for many of us, and so the willingness and ability to spend in large amounts diminishes.



In theory over the long haul, this should help increase the availability of awards as people earn fewer miles and ultimately use more than they are earning each year.

This is more along the lines of my contention in my original post which perhaps could have been better articulated by me



yes programs are always devalued.
but AA has already gutted the program, it cant get any worse imho. We are at the "rachet" point. Either stays this way or gets better. no downward risk.

if they allowed 1 cent towards a rev tix for cc holders like delta that would be an enhancement in my view . think rev fares of long haul business class in I fare bucket of heavily discounted $$


also its Barclay only which you can no longer apply for. More members are former aa flyers not former us air flyers.

remember we are outlier consumers. Flyertalkers are not representative of the Macro consumer market.

the majority of AA flyers would not have thought to get an Aviator card pre- merger.


"since in theory AA will have to find a way to keep these 'super profitable' customers happy." said sukn

"In the past accruing 300k RDMs for about $4k was easy. Today to get 300k RDMs would cost $27,200. " said imapilotaz"
The BA approval so long lobbied for and so long opposed by Govt was good for accrual opportunities for high yield rev business flyer.
Good for accrual.
For redemption, it effectively pulled AAdvantage rewards from the USA - Europe market as awards are now on BA metal with "fuel surcharges "that can approximate outright purchases.
Its a loyalty/affinity program. What is the guy who spent $27,200-- going to say when his miles are worthless for European redemptions and his AA miles are of such nominal value elsewhere?
AA will need to restore value as its now angering a customer who spent $27,200 and not the former bottom feeder ( Me :0 ) who spent $4K.

The BA approval so long lobbied for and so long opposed by Govt was good for accrual opportunities for high yield rev business flyer.
Good for accrual.
For redemption, it effectively pulled AAdvantage rewards from the USA - Europe market as awards are now on BA metal with "fuel surcharges that can approximate outright purchases.
Its a loyalty/affinity program. What is they guy who spent 27,200 going to say when his miles are worthless for European resumptions and his AA miles are of such nominal value elsewhere?
AA will need to restore value as its now angering a customer who spent $27,200 and not the former "bottom feeder" -- Me :)-- who spent $4K

rufflesinc Jan 10, 17 7:50 am


Originally Posted by sukn (Post 27733894)
With fewer people competing for award seats, how that reshapes the landscape, if at all, will be interesting to watch -- since in theory AA will have to find a way to keep these 'super profitable' customers happy.

I don't know how you would separate that effect from many people draining their large AA balances because of the devaluation, and now have to spend a lot of time building up the balances before making more redemptions.

I am optimistic that, similar to the UA deval, if you are willing to spend the higher miles, you'll have a much easier time getting awards (econ 101).

JonNYC Jan 10, 17 7:59 am


Originally Posted by sukn (Post 27733894)
With the changes in how Aadvanage now awards miles for flying, one of the impacts moving forward will be that "miles concentration" will be among fewer people.

The few people that spend a lot will now earn significantly more miles, while the folks who spend less on flying will earn far fewer miles than before.

With fewer people competing for award seats, how that reshapes the landscape, if at all, will be interesting to watch -- since in theory AA will have to find a way to keep these 'super profitable' customers happy.

Seems very sensible to me.

CPRich Jan 10, 17 8:16 am


Originally Posted by writetorich (Post 27728584)
miles – will their value go up?

I didn't read the entire thread, but wanted to thank you for the hearty laugh to start my day. Miles value going up over time - that's a good one.

Almost as good as 3 cents per mile....

jliehr Jan 10, 17 11:52 am


Originally Posted by imapilotaz (Post 27731492)
I understand what the OP is trying to argue. In the past accruing 300k RDMs for about $4k was easy. Today to get 300k RDMs would cost $27,200. So while before you could literally spend airline miles like funny money (and many, many people did), it would make sense to evaluate does it make sense at that XYZ redemption to use miles, or to pay cash. Before, outside of very minor instances it was almost always better to use miles (cash is king). How many of us were flying to Asia for $500 and then getting 35k RDMs for it? So spending 25k miles on a $300 ticket wasn't absurd.

Today, unless you MS the vast majority on here will earn fewer RDMs, which in a sense make the miles accrued "more valuable", since the ability to replenish our supply of them went up in price. So while "hoarding" makes no sense, the ability to easily earn 400k RDMs a year is gone for many of us, and so the willingness and ability to spend in large amounts diminishes.

In theory over the long haul, this should help increase the availability of awards as people earn fewer miles and ultimately use more than they are earning each year.

I think it's actually the inverse, each mile costs more to acquire therefore the value of each mile is shrunk. If a mile costs 1 cent to acquire, but you get 2 cents of redemption it's a good value. If that mile now costs 3 cents to acquire and you can only get the same 2 cents value out of it, it has become less valuable.

Basically AA realized that giving out miles to mileage runners was a loss on the balance sheet. Allowing someone to eat a non-profitable seat, and then turn that into further non-profit award seats harms the bottom line. AA ultimately will do what companies in capitalist economies do, attempt to maximize revenue and profits to reward shareholders and increase value. In the age of internet fares and lowered competition the days of courting customer and loyalty has little value. It's all about increasing profitability above all.

As businesses shift travel priorities to reducing or eliminating travel spend the airlines will only continue to push the envelope to make customers that were not profitable either profitable through fees and add-ons, or they will be happy to let them walk to a competitor.

rjw242 Jan 10, 17 11:55 am


Originally Posted by Centurion (Post 27733615)
For the record I expect an 90% devaluation of miles in less than five years.

No doubt you have ironclad data to back up those numbers?

javabytes Jan 12, 17 12:22 pm


Originally Posted by rjw242 (Post 27738264)
No doubt you have ironclad data to back up those numbers?

Depends how you squint at the 90% number. I think it is all but certain that award redemptions will ultimately become tied to fare, a la WN Rapid Rewards. This removes the ability of savvy individuals to obtain significant value from awards that is possible today where fares are high and the award chart is low. Premium cabins will be hardest hit; when a TPAC flight in Business class is no longer 120,000 miles, but pegged to a $6,000 fare at a rate of $0.01/mile becomes 600,000 miles. That sort of thing is not all too hard to envision. Same goes for close-in domestic short haul bookings, where a 7,500 mile one-way might be running $400-500.

These are probably not characteristic of typical redemptions across the FFP member base, but there are certainly such members who will find their award redemption experience becoming significantly devalued compared to what they are accustomed to.

If you already use your miles for 25k round trips to avoid a $300 fare, you don't have a reason to hoard, but also not whole lot to worry about. If you seek very high value from your miles, you should be burning away.

jmw Jan 12, 17 2:04 pm

I can't find seats at 25k round trip frequently on AA without paying double. I ended up burning miles for a funeral at United MP. I'm glad I burned most of the miles prior to aadevaluation and not hoard for emergencies even if one aadvantage mile is much costlier to acquire nowadays.

Air Houston Jan 12, 17 7:29 pm

1. No
2. No


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