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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

Old May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  • Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
  • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months

  • Booking class

  • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

Old Oct 31, 2017, 7:11 am
  #736  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: UA 1K, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,348
Originally Posted by tasty_chicken
I'm on AA193 LAX-HKG on 11/16. I'm Exec Plat using 2 SWU for myself and my SO. Expertflyer shows Business cabin as (J5 R3 D1) but seatmap shows 25 seats available. MCE is completely full. Even Economy shows (Y3 B0 H3 K0 M0 L0 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0). I have a bad feeling in my gut that's telling me that we aren't going to clear.
Given all the information you provided, it sounds like Y might be overbooked. If it stays this way, AA might clear the upgrade waitlist and/or gradually open up C closer to the departure date, to avoid having to do a cabin roll and upgrade people for free on the day of.
tasty_chicken likes this.
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Old Oct 31, 2017, 9:12 pm
  #737  
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Programs: Alaska Gold 75K, AA EXP, United 1K
Posts: 472
Originally Posted by tasty_chicken
I'm on AA193 LAX-HKG on 11/16. I'm Exec Plat using 2 SWU for myself and my SO. Expertflyer shows Business cabin as (J5 R3 D1) but seatmap shows 25 seats available. MCE is completely full. Even Economy shows (Y3 B0 H3 K0 M0 L0 G0 V0 S0 N0 Q0 O0 E0). I have a bad feeling in my gut that's telling me that we aren't going to clear.
With 25 unassigned seats in J and only 5 available for sale,
seems like a heavy Y oversell although I'm surprised they would oversell Y by that much and not leave some more J open this far out. My guess is you will get upgraded...heck even a small chance for an op up.
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Old Nov 1, 2017, 7:34 pm
  #738  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Just a random observation regarding SWUs... From my recent experience it looks like AA has gotten better at clearing SWUs automatically and well in advance. I cleared LAX-PEK on Sunday for December and just cleared a Thursday evening ORD-LAX (overnighting prior to LAX-PEK) flight which is nice on a hub to hub route with decent business travel.

Not sure if I got lucky here or they are making some strides in making SWUs somewhat more valuable. In the past, international sectors only cleared 2-3 days in advance if I waitlist even when the J cabin wasn't selling.
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 10:47 am
  #739  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: San Francisco, CA
Programs: AA Exec Plat, Hyatt LT Global Elitist, Bonvyoed LT Titanium, Hilton Gold, UA Silver
Posts: 468
Originally Posted by dkc192
Given all the information you provided, it sounds like Y might be overbooked. If it stays this way, AA might clear the upgrade waitlist and/or gradually open up C closer to the departure date, to avoid having to do a cabin roll and upgrade people for free on the day of.
I'm traveling SJC-ORD-PEK in a few days.

ORD-PEK is not showing C class inventory on EF, but when I search SJC-ORD-PEK the ORD-PEK is showing C inventory, but SJC-ORD is not.

EXP desk is telling me they can't confirm the space unless BOTH segments have C available... is this true???
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 11:09 am
  #740  
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,669
Originally Posted by roder
I'm traveling SJC-ORD-PEK in a few days.

ORD-PEK is not showing C class inventory on EF, but when I search SJC-ORD-PEK the ORD-PEK is showing C inventory, but SJC-ORD is not.

EXP desk is telling me they can't confirm the space unless BOTH segments have C available... is this true???
Generally not, unless it is all one flight number (a direct, but not nonstop flight). There should be no problem using a SWU on just one segment of two.

However, EF can be unreliable in showing C availability for single versus multiple segments and it sounds like C is available on ORD-PEK only when married with SJC-ORD, where it isn't available.
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 3:19 pm
  #741  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
Is J0 on DFW-NRT on a Saturday pretty much the kiss of death for clearing a mileage upgrade?
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 5:20 pm
  #742  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: HEL
Programs: AY GOLD, HH GOLD
Posts: 411
Got to use my last 2 SWUs on a AA38/39 LHR-MIA-LHR. Booked 3 days ahead for Thursday outbound - Monday inbound. C was wide open.
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Old Nov 2, 2017, 6:19 pm
  #743  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by mcrw00
Is J0 on DFW-NRT on a Saturday pretty much the kiss of death for clearing a mileage upgrade?
Yep. Best hope at this point is a group cancellation or weather wrecking havoc in other parts of the country causing misconnects.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 3:58 am
  #744  
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Join Date: Feb 2001
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Posts: 12,361
Originally Posted by mcrw00
Is J0 on DFW-NRT on a Saturday pretty much the kiss of death for clearing a mileage upgrade?
Originally Posted by golfingboy
Yep. Best hope at this point is a group cancellation or weather wrecking havoc in other parts of the country causing misconnects.
Not necessarily, what does the business seatmap and Y look like?

If Y is wide open but it's J0, then yea, chances don't look great.

But if Y is Y0 or at least close, then you still have an ok chance, as AA will definitely reduce or zero out J when they anticipate an oversell in Y. Especially true if the J seatmap looks a little too open for a flight that's J0.

I've cleared several upgrades in this type of "J0" scenario over the years, as well an op-up or two.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 4:41 am
  #745  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
Not necessarily, what does the business seatmap and Y look like?

If Y is wide open but it's J0, then yea, chances don't look great.

But if Y is Y0 or at least close, then you still have an ok chance, as AA will definitely reduce or zero out J when they anticipate an oversell in Y. Especially true if the J seatmap looks a little too open for a flight that's J0.

I've cleared several upgrades in this type of "J0" scenario over the years, as well an op-up or two.
I did look at EF quick before replying and both DFW-NRT flights on Saturday is relatively open in Y with inventory showing 7 seats in almost all Y fare classes.

I remember doing this flight on a Saturday last year and wound up #6 on the upgrade list as EXP... In my row there was another EXP and he was #8 . Tough route to upgrade.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 7:47 am
  #746  
 
Join Date: Jun 2011
Programs: United Premier Platinum
Posts: 638
We'll see what happens. The only time I've had it upgraded so far was when there was a last minute equipment stop to the three-cabin 772 config.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 9:32 am
  #747  
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 866
Originally Posted by golfingboy
I remember doing this flight on a Saturday last year and wound up #6 on the upgrade list as EXP... In my row there was another EXP and he was #8 . Tough route to upgrade.
The bigger issue with you missing the upgrade is Saturday, not so much the DFW-NRT route. In general, Saturday flights from NA-Asia are fuller with paid-J business travelers heading to Asia for the start of the week, since Saturday departures arrive Sunday the next day.

If you have any flexibility and are looking to upgrade that direction, Saturday is pretty much your worst bet- I'd not role the dice on it if given any options.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 10:09 am
  #748  
 
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Chicagoland
Posts: 375
Originally Posted by melrowgo
We have upgraded our R/T flights ORD-SCL via MIA. The international segments show Business on our tickets, but the domestic segments still show Economy because no C inventory is available. Will we automatically get upgraded when/if C inventory appears, or do I have to do something to initiate it?
Thoughts?
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 11:10 am
  #749  
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Originally Posted by melrowgo
Thoughts?
In my experience my upgrade cleared automatically so it looks like they do run the waitlist in some cases before releasing C.

when you check your reservation if you see a duplicate sector with one in Y and one in C that means you cleared. Will need to call or tweet AA to have the ticket reissued.
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Old Nov 3, 2017, 1:15 pm
  #750  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 717
AA 85 Friday 11/03 JFK-SFO

Currently listed as # 2 on the upgrade list (complimentary as EXP), sitting in Y

EF shows below: full in Biz, but only 1 seat taken in F, 4 seats available in Y



Will the upgrade Y to J clear?
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