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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing

NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.

"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017

(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
  • Elite status
    1. Concierge Key
    2. Executive Platinum
    3. Platinum Pro
    4. Platinum
    5. Gold
  • Upgrade type
    1. Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
    2. 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
    3. 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
  • Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months

  • Booking class

  • Time of request"


See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017

U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017

Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)

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Old May 31, 2017, 12:06 pm
  #496  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Redondo Beach, CA
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Plat, SPG Plat, Hilton Gold, UA Silver
Posts: 21
Flying MIA - LAX on May 30th on the daily 777-300ER (3-class transcon) with 52 J lie-flat seat and as EXP (probably with low 12 month rolling EQD, comparatively), I was number 12 on the UG list. I think only 2 cleared off the list. Pretty shocked since I specifically paid extra to book the 777 flight because I figured I'd have pretty good odds clearing with 52 J seats on a domestic flight, but not even close!
bchin2020 is offline  
Old May 31, 2017, 12:12 pm
  #497  
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: LGA, JFK, LAX, SFO
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 303
Originally Posted by palmetto86
Flying CLT-CDG on June 4. I've requested a miles+copay upgrade from Y->C. Anyone have luck with these clearing as a platinum?
Anything is possible, but it doesn't look good. Currently the flight is showing J3, but oddly enough only 2 empty seats + pilot rest seat open.
brc757rr is offline  
Old Jun 2, 2017, 1:15 pm
  #498  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: DFW Area
Programs: AA ConciergeKey; Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 385
On May 28, 2017, I cleared a miles only (15k) upgrade to biz from Y on a 772 from DFW to EXE as a lowly Platinum. Did not clear until 3 hours before the flight and no seats were showing open in the time leading up to my clearing.

On flight back on June 1, 2017 from GRU to DFW on a 789, I was in premium economy in W as my request to biz did not clear. I was 4th on the list and no one cleared.
davecraze is online now  
Old Jun 2, 2017, 6:24 pm
  #499  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP, 1865 Voyager, *G
Posts: 112
Booked a D-class business ticket LAX/HKG today for Sunday's flight (2:20 am, 4-Jun), and basically as soon as it was issued called the EXP desk and asked to upgrade to 1st via miles (25K) and cleared immediately.
dp4m is offline  
Old Jun 4, 2017, 10:28 am
  #500  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: UA 1K, AA EXP, WN A+, Marriott LT
Posts: 893
Originally Posted by palmetto86
Flying CLT-CDG on June 4. I've requested a miles+copay upgrade from Y->C. Anyone have luck with these clearing as a platinum?
Thought I'd follow up on my luck. Expertflyer notified me of C space on my flight yesterday morning. I called the award desk and had them force my upgrade. It didn't clear automatically. Any ways, looks like I'll be sleeping like a baby tonight across the Atlantic. : )
palmetto86 is offline  
Old Jun 4, 2017, 7:35 pm
  #501  
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: SAN
Programs: DL MM, Marriott LT Titanium, AA EXP, Avis Chairmans
Posts: 1,399
Since the MQD upgrade change, I appear to have gotten more upgrades. Prior to the change, I NEVER got a SAN-DFW upgrade and I've made that flight probably two dozen times. But my flight SAN-DFW for tomorrow cleared this morning. The night before it showed J3. YTD I have 18K MQD, and did a couple paid J flights late last year so I'm over 30K MQD looking a few months into 2016. So I'm pretty heavy on the spend. My luck may run out, but so far I'm pleased. Most of my tickets are last minute business trips, so with the prior system looking at ticketing date I was at a big disadvantage.
yngdiego is offline  
Old Jun 7, 2017, 5:35 pm
  #502  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 168
Looking for advice on DFW-DEL for a J upgrade as a lowly non-status peon after losing Plat last year (I'm doing the Plat challenge on this route). There are two AA options, DFW-LHR-DEL and DFW-HKG-DEL. Both on 77W for the overwater leg. I prefer the layover in London, but it looks like there's significantly more J space on the DFW-HKG flight. ExpertFlyer probably isn't much help this far out, but...

July 15:
AA125 DFW-HKG
or
AA50 DFW-LHR

What say you, experts? I can't do 20 hours in Y anymore and the company won't let us book J (cheap .......s)
Umrswimr is offline  
Old Jun 7, 2017, 6:29 pm
  #503  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: DFW Area
Programs: AA ConciergeKey; Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 385
Originally Posted by Umrswimr
Looking for advice on DFW-DEL for a J upgrade as a lowly non-status peon after losing Plat last year (I'm doing the Plat challenge on this route). There are two AA options, DFW-LHR-DEL and DFW-HKG-DEL. Both on 77W for the overwater leg. I prefer the layover in London, but it looks like there's significantly more J space on the DFW-HKG flight. ExpertFlyer probably isn't much help this far out, but...

July 15:
AA125 DFW-HKG
or
AA50 DFW-LHR

What say you, experts? I can't do 20 hours in Y anymore and the company won't let us book J (cheap .......s)
How about DFW-NRT-DEL on Japan Airlines in Premium Economy (better than Y at least).
davecraze is online now  
Old Jun 8, 2017, 8:04 am
  #504  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 168
Originally Posted by davecraze
How about DFW-NRT-DEL on Japan Airlines in Premium Economy (better than Y at least).
Company will only pay for Y. Or, are you suggesting to upgrade to Premium Economy on JAL rather than trying to upgrade to J?
Umrswimr is offline  
Old Jun 8, 2017, 10:42 am
  #505  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: DFW Area
Programs: AA ConciergeKey; Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 385
Originally Posted by Umrswimr
Company will only pay for Y. Or, are you suggesting to upgrade to Premium Economy on JAL rather than trying to upgrade to J?
I was suggesting that the company may pay for W (Premium economy). Mine does because it's only a few hundred more, but if yours only pays for Y, doesn't sound like an option.
davecraze is online now  
Old Jun 8, 2017, 11:12 am
  #506  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,455
Originally Posted by Umrswimr
Looking for advice on DFW-DEL for a J upgrade as a lowly non-status peon after losing Plat last year (I'm doing the Plat challenge on this route). There are two AA options, DFW-LHR-DEL and DFW-HKG-DEL. Both on 77W for the overwater leg. I prefer the layover in London, but it looks like there's significantly more J space on the DFW-HKG flight. ExpertFlyer probably isn't much help this far out, but...

July 15:
AA125 DFW-HKG
or
AA50 DFW-LHR

What say you, experts? I can't do 20 hours in Y anymore and the company won't let us book J (cheap .......s)
I think you have your flights mixed up...both flights are J7, but looking at the seat maps DFW-LHR looks much more open. DFW-HKG can be a very tough upgrade even for an EXP (especially on a Saturday like you're flying).

I'd go the LHR route. Travel time is much better too, you'll have two ~8 hr. flights as opposed to a 16 hr. leg followed by another 6 hr. flight.
JJeffrey is online now  
Old Jun 8, 2017, 1:46 pm
  #507  
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: SFO
Programs: AC SE, AA EXP MM, UA Gold MM, Hyatt Glob, Marriott Titanium, HH Dia, IHG Plat
Posts: 4,777
Comp Upgrade Still Possible as Lowest Level EXP

With the new procedures, was slightly surprised to be upgraded around 72 hours ahead of my mid-Sunday morning flight from SAT to PHX - granted not an elite-heavy route or time of day. Just 8 FC seats offered on this 319, and 4 still available for sale as we speak.

I'm only an EXP because AA offered me a fast track offer to retain status after it lapsed. My spend in the last 8 or 9 months has been only a couple of thousand dollars.

A PHX connection was also the ticket to find confirmed C upgrade space from SFO to BOS in early September. No other route offered it.
Explore is offline  
Old Jun 8, 2017, 4:05 pm
  #508  
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 168
Originally Posted by JJeffrey
I think you have your flights mixed up...both flights are J7, but looking at the seat maps DFW-LHR looks much more open. DFW-HKG can be a very tough upgrade even for an EXP (especially on a Saturday like you're flying).

I'd go the LHR route. Travel time is much better too, you'll have two ~8 hr. flights as opposed to a 16 hr. leg followed by another 6 hr. flight.
Ah, dangit- I was counting the blue seats on EF. Stupid, stupid...
Umrswimr is offline  
Old Jun 9, 2017, 1:35 am
  #509  
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Thousand Oaks, Ca., USA
Programs: AA Lifetime Plat; Bonvoy Titanium Lifetime Elite;Hyatt Globalist; HHonors Diamond; United Silver
Posts: 8,311
For a minimum spend exp with a monthly Lax-Mia trip, do you think Tuesday morning (roughly in a 77w) to Friday evening (roughly 5pm on a 77W) is better odds than the same flights Mon-Thurs?

Does your answer change if I do miles/copay on the return?

thanks in advance.
beachfan is offline  
Old Jun 13, 2017, 11:04 am
  #510  
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Long Island, NY
Programs: AA EXP, Hyatt Explorist, Marriott Gold
Posts: 732
JFK->LHR using Miles & Copay

JFK->LHR midweek in June: upgrade to J using Miles & Copay (25000 miles + $350) was requested about 3 months ago, at time of booking. AA EXP status with SWU left but want to keep them for TPAC flights.

Upgrade cleared about 36 hours before departure.

I did not see any 'C' inventory on experflyer, but when I logged into AA, the message "We couldn't display your trip details" appeared so I knew there was a good surprise coming.
zip10001 is offline  


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