May 22, 2017, 6:21 am
Last edit by: JDiver
Chances of Upgrade Request Clearing
NOTE: Be aware of recent (20 May 2017) upgrade priority changes.
"New Upgrade Priority as of 20 May 2017
(Upgrades were prioritized by elite status and then time of request until 20 May 2017)
- Elite status
- Concierge Key
- Executive Platinum
- Platinum Pro
- Platinum
- Gold
- Upgrade type
- Miles and copay award upgrades and systemwide upgrades (SWU)
- 500 mile upgrades on purchased tickets
- 500 mile upgrades on upgrade eligible awards)
- Elite qualifying dollars in the past 12 months
- Booking class
- Time of request"
See Upgrade Priority Changes to Status, Rolling 365 Day EQD Spend May 20 2017
U]Link[/U] to Gary Leff, View From the Wing 16 May 2017
Updated 22 May 2017 by JDiver
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2017 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Availability (consolidated)
Dec 7, 2017, 9:24 am
#811
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 120
I'm waiting on my SWU clearing for a ORD-CDG flight mid-week. It's still a few J seats left. Given that I've requested the upgrade more than 2 weeks ago, is it likely that it clears (if it clears at all) only at the gate?
The upgrade for the return flight (CDG-PHL) has cleared more than a week ago already.
The upgrade for the return flight (CDG-PHL) has cleared more than a week ago already.
Dec 7, 2017, 10:40 am
#812
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: Palm Beach/ New England
Programs: AA EXP 3MM, DL GM, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 4,382
Cross-posted from the EQM thread:
My 2015 and earlier e500 EXP upgrade clear rate was 90% + Back in the recession days, it was often greater than 95%.
2016 the e500 EXP upgrade clear rate dropped to 85%.
Current year 2017 has dropped again to 81%.
I also have started "managing" my upgrades more closely. For example, setting ExpertFlyer alerts, calling in for an alternate instrument upgrade when only one seat becomes available, avoiding the A319, etc.
Here are the related spend data:
2017
AA YTD EQM per website: 15,443
Current YTD Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 17,481
2016
Year-end Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 20,509
2015
Year-end Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 14,014
My 2015 and earlier e500 EXP upgrade clear rate was 90% + Back in the recession days, it was often greater than 95%.
2016 the e500 EXP upgrade clear rate dropped to 85%.
Current year 2017 has dropped again to 81%.
I also have started "managing" my upgrades more closely. For example, setting ExpertFlyer alerts, calling in for an alternate instrument upgrade when only one seat becomes available, avoiding the A319, etc.
Here are the related spend data:
2017
AA YTD EQM per website: 15,443
Current YTD Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 17,481
2016
Year-end Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 20,509
2015
Year-end Total AA spend (per spreadsheet) 14,014
Dec 7, 2017, 10:56 am
#813
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AAdvantage EP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 11
That shows only 7 available seats this morning and J0, as does the earlier flight, and the later flight is J0 and 1 available seat. And the BA seats don't look a lot better.
That makes it look like your chances are slim. As for why it has happened ... it could be that they are considering an equipment change; there could be crew in London who need to be flown back to Chicago; or it could be that lots of those J seats have gone to flexible ticket holders and AA know that they often try to change flights at the last minute. It doesn't look like a situation where Y is oversold.
LHR ORD last January is the only SWU in 8 years that I have missed and despite having been on the waitlist from 6 weeks before the flight (when request time still mattered) with only 2-3 other folks in MCE, I still ended up at number 9 on the upgrade list!
That makes it look like your chances are slim. As for why it has happened ... it could be that they are considering an equipment change; there could be crew in London who need to be flown back to Chicago; or it could be that lots of those J seats have gone to flexible ticket holders and AA know that they often try to change flights at the last minute. It doesn't look like a situation where Y is oversold.
LHR ORD last January is the only SWU in 8 years that I have missed and despite having been on the waitlist from 6 weeks before the flight (when request time still mattered) with only 2-3 other folks in MCE, I still ended up at number 9 on the upgrade list!
Dec 7, 2017, 2:34 pm
#814
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
Dec 7, 2017, 7:17 pm
#815
Ambassador: Alaska Airlines
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: BWI
Posts: 7,390
Dec 8, 2017, 6:53 am
#816
Join Date: Nov 2017
Programs: AAdvantage EP, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 11
Ok so here is what I totally don't get now. Just checked this morning. I cleared and now the flight also shows 11 seats open in business....
Dec 8, 2017, 7:36 am
#817
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
That would suggest that they were anticipating an equipment change or a cancellation (maybe a BA 789 that needs urgent engine maintenance) and so they zero'd out the fare classes to stop people buying tickets until the changes were sorted out.
Dec 9, 2017, 8:46 am
#818
Join Date: Feb 2011
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 810
On LAX-HKG on Tue Jan 9th with 29 unassigned seats in J, EF reads J7. Put in my SWU request at booking on Dec 7th...any data points on this flight recently?
Return cleared at booking for 2 pax
Return cleared at booking for 2 pax
Dec 9, 2017, 9:16 am
#819
Join Date: May 2009
Location: SMF
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 77
FWIW: Flew on LAX-HKG midweek in November (on Wed). The upgrade cleared like a week before the flight and it seemed they were few upgrades even at the gate. Generally, J was wide open for sale until the day before the flight (that I checked).
Dec 9, 2017, 9:28 pm
#820
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: PHX & AGP
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, Bonvoy Lifetime Titanium, Hilton Gold
Posts: 11,453
Dec 10, 2017, 8:54 am
#822
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Gatwick, UK
Programs: UA *G, BA Silver
Posts: 1,673
It now looks like 27 unassigned seats, but until the last few days that number can generally only go down. I would guess your chances are fair, but not near guaranteed.
Also if you are looking for two upgrades then that might work against you.
Dec 10, 2017, 12:00 pm
#823
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: San Francisco
Programs: AA EXP; Marriott BonVoy Titanium Elite, Marriott LT Plat.
Posts: 1,717
J7 is not the most useful information as that is the most it will show. But that flight is also I7 which tells you that they are still working hard to sell seats on that flight.
It now looks like 27 unassigned seats, but until the last few days that number can generally only go down. I would guess your chances are fair, but not near guaranteed...
It now looks like 27 unassigned seats, but until the last few days that number can generally only go down. I would guess your chances are fair, but not near guaranteed...
And with that being said regarding I7 may be a better indicator for upgrading space.
I have a friend that's on 192 (HKG-LAX) December 16th. He's EXP and is currently waitlisted with a SWU applied as the upgrading tool.
Thanks...
Dec 10, 2017, 10:32 pm
#824
Join Date: Feb 2011
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 810
When did he book? Peculiar. We booked Dec 9th and cleared SWUs at booking on this flight.
Dec 13, 2017, 7:00 am
#825
Join Date: Jun 2010
Programs: AA EXP, Hilton Honors Gold, National Executive Elite
Posts: 406
I found JFK-MAD 1/21/18-1/25/18 for $492.60 RT with SWU available both ways. From MAD IB has incredibly inexpensive flights all around Spain and Europe (unfortunately with knee crunching seat pitch) so I purchased these tickets even with a schedule not 100% finalized and I will work it out. At that price, its almost worth doing just as a mileage rune