Drastic fare increase in First on Hawaii routes
Sep 10, 2016, 9:32 am
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: SNA LAX
Programs: AA PLT
Posts: 116
Drastic fare increase in First on Hawaii routes
I've consistently flown from LAX to Hawaii (OGG, HNL mostly) and routinely book First (Y-Up either A/P) rather than playing the odds at an upgrade.
In the past month, the fares for First (Y-Up) have almost doubled across all dates. Where I'd typically see a $1100-$1300 RT "First" fare, it's now upwards of $2400 RT. Obviously same product, no changes there. Where "First" used to be precisely $300 more each way, it's now upwards of $800+ more each way. Checked numerous dates and it's changed across the board.
I've only noticed the shift in my Hawaii routes, elsewhere across the country in Y-Up not much change. I get occupancy shifts across seasons but I've specifically looked at off-season and peak season dates and they are all way, way higher. Not-in-the-same-ballpark higher.
Has anyone else noticed this and any ideas why?
In the past month, the fares for First (Y-Up) have almost doubled across all dates. Where I'd typically see a $1100-$1300 RT "First" fare, it's now upwards of $2400 RT. Obviously same product, no changes there. Where "First" used to be precisely $300 more each way, it's now upwards of $800+ more each way. Checked numerous dates and it's changed across the board.
I've only noticed the shift in my Hawaii routes, elsewhere across the country in Y-Up not much change. I get occupancy shifts across seasons but I've specifically looked at off-season and peak season dates and they are all way, way higher. Not-in-the-same-ballpark higher.
Has anyone else noticed this and any ideas why?
Sep 10, 2016, 9:40 am
#2
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Sep 10, 2016, 11:57 am
#4
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Kamuela, HI
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Posts: 462
I've consistently flown from LAX to Hawaii (OGG, HNL mostly) and routinely book First (Y-Up either A/P) rather than playing the odds at an upgrade.
In the past month, the fares for First (Y-Up) have almost doubled across all dates. Where I'd typically see a $1100-$1300 RT "First" fare, it's now upwards of $2400 RT. Obviously same product, no changes there. Where "First" used to be precisely $300 more each way, it's now upwards of $800+ more each way. Checked numerous dates and it's changed across the board.
I've only noticed the shift in my Hawaii routes, elsewhere across the country in Y-Up not much change. I get occupancy shifts across seasons but I've specifically looked at off-season and peak season dates and they are all way, way higher. Not-in-the-same-ballpark higher.
Has anyone else noticed this and any ideas why?
In the past month, the fares for First (Y-Up) have almost doubled across all dates. Where I'd typically see a $1100-$1300 RT "First" fare, it's now upwards of $2400 RT. Obviously same product, no changes there. Where "First" used to be precisely $300 more each way, it's now upwards of $800+ more each way. Checked numerous dates and it's changed across the board.
I've only noticed the shift in my Hawaii routes, elsewhere across the country in Y-Up not much change. I get occupancy shifts across seasons but I've specifically looked at off-season and peak season dates and they are all way, way higher. Not-in-the-same-ballpark higher.
Has anyone else noticed this and any ideas why?
Sep 10, 2016, 12:13 pm
#5
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Sep 10, 2016, 12:30 pm
#6
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: SNA LAX
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Just really odd to have such a sudden drastic increase. Been booking these itineraries 3-4x a year (and pricing the routes just about daily) for the past decade or more and haven't seen anything like this. Thanks for the feedback. Aloha!
Last edited by MauiOC; Sep 10, 2016 at 12:46 pm
Sep 10, 2016, 12:36 pm
#7
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I can't answer your question about fares, but can say that we are booked on a couple of returns LAX-HNL and LAX-OGG in months to come, and two of the four (In November) have F booked up and the other two (in February) only full fare left. In fact, one of my November flights had a timetable change and they put me on the LAX-OGG that was worst timed for me but could not change because the other one was already full in F too!
Sep 10, 2016, 1:10 pm
#8
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Delta is priced about $500 lower on flights I've checked. Not just from Hawaii, but almost every route I purchase. For the time being, it's DL and AS for me.
Sep 10, 2016, 1:46 pm
#9
Join Date: Jul 1999
Programs: QF WP, AA EXP
Posts: 3,520
Probably because demand is high. And they have 1/3 less seats than when 757's were flying these routes. And they are filling them up at $1k (take a look at expertflyer - F0's on so many of these flights it's quite surprising), so why not see if they can charge more? It may backfire since their competitors are not raising their fares.
With the 757's I was pretty much guaranteed a EXP upgrade on my trips to LIH. Now, not so much. Heck, try to even find a F MilesAAver award through end of schedule. Good luck.
At this point, for my next LIH trip, I'd rather give United the money and get a lie flat seat and WiFi for $1200 rather than pay AA twice that... The joys of becoming a free agent.
With the 757's I was pretty much guaranteed a EXP upgrade on my trips to LIH. Now, not so much. Heck, try to even find a F MilesAAver award through end of schedule. Good luck.
At this point, for my next LIH trip, I'd rather give United the money and get a lie flat seat and WiFi for $1200 rather than pay AA twice that... The joys of becoming a free agent.
Sep 10, 2016, 2:57 pm
#10
Original Poster
Join Date: Nov 2015
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Probably because demand is high. And they have 1/3 less seats than when 757's were flying these routes. And they are filling them up at $1k (take a look at expertflyer - F0's on so many of these flights it's quite surprising), so why not see if they can charge more? It may backfire since their competitors are not raising their fares.
With the 757's I was pretty much guaranteed a EXP upgrade on my trips to LIH. Now, not so much. Heck, try to even find a F MilesAAver award through end of schedule. Good luck.
At this point, for my next LIH trip, I'd rather give United the money and get a lie flat seat and WiFi for $1200 rather than pay AA twice that... The joys of becoming a free agent.
With the 757's I was pretty much guaranteed a EXP upgrade on my trips to LIH. Now, not so much. Heck, try to even find a F MilesAAver award through end of schedule. Good luck.
At this point, for my next LIH trip, I'd rather give United the money and get a lie flat seat and WiFi for $1200 rather than pay AA twice that... The joys of becoming a free agent.
Doubling the price would be an interesting test strategy to gauge overall F demand. Looking well ahead (glanced at late February-on), the seats are wide open at the the new fares. It's been well over a month since the new pricing has been in place. At first I thought it was just a fluke but seems to be sticking. Can't imagine anyone paying that for what you get. But I guess elementary supply v demand will ultimately dictate if it'll eventually come back down in price.
Sep 10, 2016, 3:06 pm
#11
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AA has done something similar on the LAX- JFK route in J. On most flights the one way fare went from $599 to $999 or more. They are definitely trying to tell us something.
Sep 10, 2016, 4:27 pm
#12
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 3,698
...that now that their frequent flier program isn't particularly good and their operations are in the toilet, they think they can demand higher prices than the competition? Will be interesting to see how this goes for them.
Sep 10, 2016, 4:49 pm
#13
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As others note, if AA can't sell the seats at the fares it is publishing, it will drop them. People will then purchase them. But, AA's RM/IM folks are predicting that the seats will eventually sell at the higher prices and they've typically been correct more often than not.
So, we'll see.
So, we'll see.
Sep 10, 2016, 5:21 pm
#14
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Use Google Flights starting in KOA/HNL in business class in the explore destinations mode, and you'll get some good ideas. It looks like AA has fixed the price of flights to many US destinations into west/center/east bands of $2250, $2450, and $2650.
Sep 10, 2016, 5:33 pm
#15
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: BOS
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Do like the BA Tier Point runners and start in Europe...
Just booked this bad boy for £1298 for 1280 TPs
Code:
Zurich (ZRH) to Honolulu (HNL) Wed, Dec 28 Long layoverOvernight flight Zurich (ZRH) to London (LHR) Wed, Dec 28 British Airways 719 Dep: 6:55 pm Arr: 7:50 pm 1h 55m Airbus A320 Business (J) Meal Layover in LHR 13h 10m London (LHR) to Miami (MIA) Thu, Dec 29 British Airways 207 Dep: 9:00 am Arr: 1:50 pm 9h 50m Boeing 747 Business (I) Meal Layover in MIA 3h 23m Miami (MIA) to Los Angeles (LAX) Thu, Dec 29 American Airlines Inc. 1428 Dep: 5:13 pm Arr: 7:30 pm 5h 17m Boeing 777 First (A) DinnerMovieIn-seat Video Player Layover in LAX 21h 30m Los Angeles (LAX) to Honolulu (HNL) Fri, Dec 30 American Airlines Inc. 297 Dep: 5:00 pm Arr: 8:50 pm 5h 50m Airbus A321 (Sharklets) First (A) Dinner Honolulu (HNL) to Berlin (TXL) Fri, Dec 30 Long layoverOvernight flight Honolulu (HNL) to Los Angeles (LAX) Fri, Dec 30 American Airlines Inc. 298 Dep: 10:36 pm Arr: 5:54 am 5h 18m Airbus A321 (Sharklets) First (A) Snack or Brunch Layover in LAX Sat, Dec 31 6h 51m Los Angeles (LAX) to New York (JFK) Sat, Dec 31 American Airlines Inc. 256 Dep: 12:45 pm Arr: 9:15 pm 5h 30m Airbus A321 (Sharklets) First (A) LunchIn-seat Video Player Layover in JFK 22h 55m New York (JFK) to London (LHR) Sun, Jan 1 British Airways 116 Dep: 8:10 pm Arr: 8:10 am 7h 0m Boeing 747 Business (I) Meal Layover in LHR Mon, Jan 2 2h 10m London (LHR) to Helsinki (HEL) Mon, Jan 2 British Airways 6032 Dep: 10:20 am Arr: 3:15 pm 2h 55m Airbus A350 Business (J) Meal OPERATED BY FINNAIR Layover in HEL 1h 45m Helsinki (HEL) to Berlin (TXL) Mon, Jan 2 Finnair 917 Dep: 5:00 pm Arr: 6:00 pm 2h 0m Airbus A319 Business (I) Meal
Last edited by Gerbs; Sep 10, 2016 at 6:44 pm Reason: emoji added since meant to be semi-serious