Uncle Nonny

I cleared AA 192 on 8/26 about a week ago. Middle of J cabin still wide open on both outbound and inbound for my trip.

jcatman

Any idea if upgrades are easier to achieve on weekend flights v. weekday?

Uncle Nonny

I have no idea. These will be my 5th and 6th TPACs this year and I've cleared on miles/cash this year. Only time I didn't was when I was Gold.

jcatman

Gotcha. I'm trying the SWU route to get into J.

hiima

This route is very easy y to clear Y to J, even without status.

BusinessorBust

I'm on AA193 on 8/11 with my wife, headed to celebrate our honeymoon. We put in for SWU's from premium economy to J when we booked the flights, but nothing has opened up yet sadly. EF still shows between 7 and 10 seats available in business, but who knows how that will go. I'm really hoping we manage to fly business for our honeymoon. This is my first year having made explat.

Here's my question - there are 6 seats available on first class, and 6 corresponding upgrades currently available to first class. But, since AA's first class isn't so special, I guess none of the people who booked into business (by paying business fare) have requested those upgrades.

Will AA be likely to move some business travelers into first class (basically for free, since no one has requested it) to make more space in business so I can burn my SWU's on upgrades if no seats are available? Or would they be more likely to take off with seats open in first class and people still trying to upgrade to business (assuming it fills up so upgrades aren't clearing)?

I understand no one can anticipate what RM will do for certain, but I figure some of you have years of experiencing watching these things. Does AA typically let first class remain open if no one in business is requesting an upgrade but people in economy or PE are requesting upgrades to a full business class section?

The reason I am asking is probably obvious... right now there are 7-10 seats open in business but if AA would be likely to move business travelers to first (surprise!!!), then it's more like there are potentially 13-16 seats available.

JJeffrey

In this instance we can definitely anticipate what RM will do...that is, they will not just move people from Business to First to free up space in Business for upgrades. AA will let F go out empty even if there are 50 people on the upgrade list for Business.

Welcome to FT, btw...

BusinessorBust

Thanks for the welcome, and for the answer! It may not be the answer I was hoping for, but I absolutely appreciate the info.

People say this route is easy to upgrade on, but I've been watching the number of seats dwindle for my flights since I booked it a few months ago haha. About 3 days to go and 7-10 seats left in business - keep your fingers cross! My EQD's are pretty good so while I"m not saying I'd be at the top of the upgrade list, after the CK's clear I'd probably be ahead of most explats, particularly those clearing to explat on the cheapest routes available. So I think I've got a shot here.

BTW - is there a thread that's like a wiki or something, where people try to post what's happened to them so that we all get a snapshot of the likelihood for different routes? I'd be glad to start updating it with my clears / no clears, just to contribute to the public good here.

anabolism

Indeed, yes. Even more likely, the flight will go out with airline employees in F.

When you check EF, be sure to check the inventory for sale rather than the seat map. In particular, flights with discount business available, especially I inventory, but to some extent also D, are the most likely to have upgrades to business clear.

I believe there are threads and other avenues where people post experience, but even on the same route the situation can be quite different from one day to another. In general, Saturdays, Tuesdays, and Wednesdays tend to have better luck at upgrades, but inventory for sale is a better gauge.

Zacnlinc

I have the same sentiment myself (AA F isn't that special) with my upcoming LAX-HKG trip. Flights to/from LAX to SFO do not have F, so I'd burn and SWU just for the TPAC flights. Each time I've exited the 77W at HKG via F cabin, I've been "un-impressed". Maybe it's just the mess that left behind that makes me sour on the thought of upgrading on the flight. Being able to use FLD at LAX did cross my mind as well. But hey, that's why I go to QF rather than AA FL when possible. Being shunned over to the Nest at LAX or my flight to SFO is no fun either...

no1cub17

I'm curious what happens in your case. Per EF Y and PEY are nearly sold out - EF shows Y1 and W2. I find it interesting there are 4 unassigned seats in PEY - so theoretically two passengers with confirmed PEY haven't selected seats. But I wonder if it's possible that AA has oversold Y and thus are holding back on PEY inventory to account for op-ups from Y to PEY (and then consequently clearing upgrades into J). I'd say you still have a solid chance especially since you're EXP. Good luck!

no1cub17

I think I meant to reply to your post above, haha, oops.

Any chance you can move your trip up? If you can take 193 on 8/9 it's C7 :-D Might be worth the change fee...

JBauer

JJeffrey

With no bags you shouldn't have any trouble making the 8:45a flight. If you were to miss it, you'd be on the hook for a new ticket on the later flight, YMMV depending on how Bangkok Airways treated it (but their walk-up fares are not that much different than normal fares, so it wouldn't be that much more).

With bags its obviously a lot closer, but do-able if you're on time and you don't hit any delays at HKG immigration or baggage claim. I'd call Bangkok Airways first thought and see what their check-in time cutoff is at HKG (it's not listed online).

I flew the reverse USM-HKG back in March on Bangkok Airways and it was a great flight, nice and convenient and avoids the connection in BKK.

BusinessorBust

Thanks man! Unfortunately I can't move the trip because... you know, work. I'm going to disconnect for 10 days for my honeymoon (other than posting an update here with what happens, haha). So I need to get my affairs in order.

You mention signs look good. I too see a bunch of J on EF. But it's been mentioned to me that on flights with lots of empty F, AA will actually oversell J because they know they have the F cushion (can always push a revenue ticket up into F if they have too many in J). But those same tickets they are willing to oversell in J - and thus are reflected on EF - are not available for upgrades from Y into J because they aren't going to push someone from J to F just to accommodate an upgrade. So actually I'm a bit worried that there are very few dedicated J seats left. I guess I just have to hope and pray to the RM gods!

Of course, if you saw something on EF that you think indicates a good chance here and I missed it, pass on the good word, brotha!