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Speculation: New US-Cuba aviation deal...how many flights for AA?

Speculation: New US-Cuba aviation deal...how many flights for AA?

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Old Feb 16, 16, 6:09 am   -   Wikipost
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Speculation: AA and Commercial Flights to/from Cuba

As reported in several media the U. S. Department of Transportation has announced an agreement that would ultimately allow for up to 110 commercial daily flights between the USA and Cuba, including up to 20 flights to La Habana / HAV and up to 10 for nine other Cuban airports. Airlines will apply, USDOT will select. These airports might include Havana (HAV), Camagüey (CMW), Cienfuegos (CFG), Jardines del Rey (CCC), Santa Clara (SNU), Santiago de Cuba (SCU) and Varadero (VRA).

Current USA-Cuba flights, flown by American, Delta, JetBlue, SunJet etc. are all charters through Cuba Travel Service / CTA. AA charter flights to Cuba do not earn AA miles, can not be flown as awards, do not allow for upgrades or recognize any AA perquisites or status.

Tourist travel to Cuba is prohibited under U.S. law for U.S. citizens, permanent residents, and others subject to U.S. jurisdiction, as is spending American money for arrangements in Cuba or in Cuba itself. USA travelers must have a permit as allowed by the U. S. Treasury OFAC, as well as purchase tickets from CTS if flying between USA and Cuba.

Link to US Treasury Dept. Office of Foreign Assets Control / OFAC PDF (12 Jan 2016) governing travel to Cuba by U.S. Citizens and Residents.

U. S. citizens can legally travel to Cuba if they are engaging in 12 categories of activities such as professional research, participating in an athletic event, performing in a concert, working on a humanitarian project or taking part in educational activities benefiting Cubans or visiting for "people to people" educational and outreach purposes. Americans might now "self license" if traveling for covered reasons.

Authorized travelers to Cuba are subject to daily spending limits. See the Office of Foreign Assets Control page of the U.S. Department of the Treasury. Link to PDF.

Currently, no AAdvantage miles may be earned flying AA or any oneworld airline to or from Cuba (e.g. Iberia).
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Old Dec 17, 15, 11:36 am
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Speculation: New US-Cuba aviation deal...how many flights for AA?

HAVANA (AP) — The United States and Cuba have struck a deal to allow 30 regular airline flights a day, allowing a surge of American travel to Cuba that could eventually flood the country with hundreds of thousands more U.S. visitors a year, officials said Thursday on the anniversary of detente between the Cold War foes.

The deal reached Wednesday night after three days of talks in Washington opens the way for U.S. airlines to negotiate with Cuba's government for routes that could one day bring more than 4,000 more Americans to Cuba daily. While it will likely take months before the first commercial flight to Havana, the reestablishment of regular aviation to Cuba after half a century will almost certainly be the biggest business development since the two countries began normalizing relations last year.

Thirty more flights a day would more than double current U.S. air traffic to Cuba but it may take years to reach that number. U.S. travel to Cuba has risen by more than 50 percent this year alongside an even great surge in travel from other countries, overwhelming the country's outmoded tourist infrastructure.

http://news.yahoo.com/us-cuba-flight...051233339.html
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Old Dec 17, 15, 11:50 am
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AA already has charters from south Florida and now LAX. Just need to allow sale of tickets to the public.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 11:52 am
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Yes, but any speculation as to new routes?
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Old Dec 17, 15, 12:04 pm
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I could see AA starting a few MIA-Cuba flights, then adding flights from other hubs as demand grows.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 12:35 pm
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I'm thinking TPA,ORD,DFW and NYC?
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Old Dec 17, 15, 12:47 pm
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Considering a majority of Cubans live in Miami I expect nearly all AA adds to be from there. In the agreement there can be up to 110 daily roundtrips for all US airlines combined to Cuba. 20 to Havana and 10 to the other 9 international airports.

Wouldn't be surprised to see daily Miami service to all 10 of those cities. With more frequency to Havana. Also maybe a 1x from ORD, DFW to Havana
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Old Dec 17, 15, 12:50 pm
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Seems like there are a lot of Cubans in the Tampa area as well. Not sure if it's enough to justify a non-stop though.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 12:58 pm
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I think it depends what they decide to fly on the route. It seems like they could just stick a pair of CR7 doing nothing but flying MIA-Cuba-MIA turns, and have the occasional 737 from MIA during peak periods and from JFK.

(Edited because I saw the distribution of flights across airports and the caps per airport)
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Old Dec 17, 15, 1:44 pm
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Originally Posted by IMStill4Travel View Post
Seems like there are a lot of Cubans in the Tampa area as well. Not sure if it's enough to justify a non-stop though.
I often see the AA Cuba charter leaving from TPA. The long line is right next to the F/Priority Access line at the LAA counter.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:06 pm
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Probably about 5 777/day from Salt Lake City
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:26 pm
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I read one article that stated that AA had approx. 1200 charter flights to Cuba in the past year. I would see a minimum of 4x daily from MIA, plus one from DFW and ORD, perhaps. Then, we add in all of the Florida cities, which would merit at least weekly service.

As Cuba invests more money in infrastructure, I think the number of flights should continue to increase in future years.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:31 pm
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Originally Posted by DeepUnderground View Post
Probably about 5 777/day from Salt Lake City
No, all new 777 flying is supposed to be from LIT. It'll give the LIT-NRT planes something to do for a few hours before heading back.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:33 pm
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Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick View Post
No, all new 777 flying is supposed to be from LIT. It'll give the LIT-NRT planes something to do for a few hours before heading back.
LOL!
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:40 pm
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How much demand will there be if the travel restrictions are still in place? I wouldn't see demand multiplying until general travel is allowed.
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Old Dec 17, 15, 2:45 pm
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Also, how good/bad is the Havana airport infrastructure to be able to handle such an increase in departures/arrivals?

Or have non-US airlines been able to get the airport up to snuff?
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