Sant

I saw in the news that JAL restarted their nonstop DFW-Narita flights today with daily flights starting in March.

Would the upcoming partner earnings affect whether or not folks would choose a partner metal over AA? When I chose LAN metal to get me to Quito, I didn't care how it would affect my mileage earnings.

LINDEGR

I hate to break it to you, but nearly everyone does. $80k is more than the average American makes in a year so obviously they are rich if spending that money on airfare alone.

Working 365 days a year is not relevant. Besides the fact that it is not realistic in the least it is not mutually exclusive. One can be rich and tired...

rankourabu

You missed the point.
How many people spending 80k on airfare are of the rich kind?, maybe a few hundred/thousand?, and how many are simply flying for work, and probably dont even make 80k period, while "spending" 80k, I would guess a far greater number than "rich" people.

GUWonder

There are plenty of people traveling for business whose travel budget for work travel exceeds the personal income of the business traveler. Far more of these kind of people than people whose leisure travel budget exceeds their personal income, with the big exception to this being those who are retirees or are dependents/beneficiaries of others' wealth/income.

NA-Flyer

I spend plenty of money on int'l air travel in premium classes and luxury hotel stays, however, everything is charged to my company as travel expenses. Out of my pocket I spend zilch. However, I keep all the benefits including the miles earned on air travel and points from hotel stays to myself. I am happy and my employer is happy too

This is why I find earning status with the new changes is easier than before, however, I not much happy with the sharp increase in redemption rates.

brp

I am ahead with the new system. I can qualify more easily (fewer flown miles, same spend (more on that below)). The takeback on the SWUs is not great, but 4 is an adequate number. So, yeah, while that's a negative, the overall is a new plus.

With 56K EQM booked for next year in a combination of Coach, Business and First, we're on a par to spend about the same as, or slightly less than, last year. And we need fewer trips.

Net plus for us.

Cheers.

GUWonder

Don't be surprised if this "net plus" in 2016 is no longer available for doing 18 months from now. And by then you'll have already been hit by the reduction of your SWUs and by the less valuable miles earned from flight and partner activity. Welcome to the path of incremental cutting.

brp

Quite possible, and I won't be surprised by more changes.

As we don't use our miles for much now, we won't be "hit" by the reduced earnings.

As for the SWUs, we will miss out on using the "extras" (beyond 4 each) on some of the longer domestic flights. But with an upgrade percentage close to 100%, the likelihood is that we'll get the sticker upgrades anyway, so the "hit" is minimized.

Cheers.

Global321

You really get more spendable miles in the new program vs. old? Even with the higher redemption rates?

I simply find that hard to believe.

Qualifying is easy, so making it easier does not count for much for me. (Maybe all the way to April for EXP next year, but probably earlier.)

brp

We don't use spendable miles for much, so how many we get going forward versus how many we got in the past is not relevant to our assessment of which program is better.

Our EXP travel is 100% personal. Qualification was easy in the past. It is now easier. That is a positive.

Cheers.

Global321

okay, I guess if you don't use/value the miles/redemption, this new program is better for you. However, I think it would be safe to say you are an outlier.

(ps - Can I have your miles? )

brp

Most likely. We fly to go interesting places and to maintain status. Because we pay for flights for status, we don't need miles for trips. We do use some for hotels and for family, but not too many.

So, we do use and value them, just not as much as the other aspects.

And, as EXP, say we fly 100K miles each per year. At $11/mile, we should get about 110K miles each per year. That's about half what we had gotten, but still more than we typically use. We fly mostly AA flight numbers, even on partners, so I think those numbers are correct.

No. Clearly we won't have enough going forward...

Cheers.

ashill

Same spend on fewer trips and fewer BIS miles means you're paying more per trip and more per BIS mile, so net win for AA; you get the same EQMs and they have more seats they can sell to others, despite getting the same revenue for you. Presumably, this means that your spend has a slightly more premium mix in 2016 than it has in the past, which is exactly the behavior the new system is designed to reward. ^ for working the system both to your and AA's advantage.

Of course, you're certainly in the minority of customers in that you're going for minimal EXP qualification and not generally taking trips that need to be taken. But this sort of pattern is why (neglecting the huge-but-expected devaluation in RDM earning and the inexplicable devaluation in earning on joint venture partners) I think this is a very sensible overhaul of the elite program.

What do you mean? Do you mean a revenue requirement coming? I don't really see a revenue requirement having much effect, since the main effect of revenue requirements is to strongly discount partner flights (since they earn sharply-discounted MQDs in DL's program and don't earn UA PQDs at all) and rollover MQMs (which is irrelevant to AA). AA's new program already does that, since partner flights earn roughly half what equivalent AA fares earn.

Rover75

AA has lost most of my business going forward.

I retired young and I love to travel. AA (together with TWA until they sold their LHR operations to AA) was my primary airline of choice for the past 35 years. I have well over 3 million lifetime miles on AA. I earned EXP most recently in both 2013 and 2014 by spending $10,000 to $12,000 a year on air travel: all for leisure, almost all in discounted coach. Roughly 25% of my revenue travel in each year was not on AA but on a oneworld partner airlines where I could earn 100% EQMs, primarily BA.

I won’t earn EXP this year because (thank goodness) I made a decision to use 2015 to spend down the miles I accumulated over the prior two years. But I was going to take a shot at EXP in 2016— I had already booked over 30,000 EQMs in travel for 2016 (2/3 in discounted coach on BA) when the news hit. Under the new rules my BA ticket EQMs will be worth a small fraction of what they would have been worth under the rules in effect when the ticket was issued. For me, one of the most painful changes has been the loss of 100% EQM credit for discounted BA flights.

I earned life platinum status at least 15 years ago. The double miles that accompanied that status had been a major factor in my sustained loyalty to AA. That is now gone. Indeed, the bonus for platinum status is reduced more than for any other status category.

Even when I was working full time, I was always an aspirational flyer: by which I mean, I would put up with crummy domestic itineraries to earn international business and first class travel. I have never used miles for a domestic coach award and almost never internationally. The only reason I have suffered the steady decline in the quality of coach travel was that aspirational expectation for upgrades on long flights.

No more.

I am based in Boston which was once an AA hub. But excepting the seasonal summer service to CDG, we’ve lost the nonstops which I used to fly regularly, nonstops to: SJU, SAN, SJC, SFO, SEA, LHR, MAN, DUB. So over the past few years I have spent hundreds of hours at JFK in order to fly AA to their European destinations (and to take their domestic transcon services). This was worth it when I was earning lots of miles and had access to SWU’s for upgrades on AA metal traveling internationally. Under the new rules: no way.

I am lucky: My flying is 95% discretionary. I realize most folks aren’t in that situation. Part of what this means is that I am simply going to scale my flying way back since the effective cost structure (after giving effect to the changes in earning and redeeming AA miles) just makes it a very expensive (and hence inefficient) use of my travel dollar.

I dumped my AAdvantage Credit Card a few months ago after I realized that I was no longer getting my best value by accumulating additional AA miles. I now carry two hotel branded cards (Hilton and Hyatt) plus a Chase Sapphire. (It’s this last credit card which is my travel workhorse and which I’ve combined with a Chase Freedom card to maximize my earning of Ultimate Rewards points.)

In summary, my plans going forward are as follows:

(1) To reduce my air travel to two to three trips a year at most (one or two to Europe and one domestic);
(2) To fly AA domestically (UNLESS an alternative carrier has a price competitive nonstop versus an AA connecting flight);
(3) To fly price competitive nonstops to Europe (where-ever possible) and to avoid LHR (when-ever possible). (Excepting a possible summer trip to CDG, this means no flights on AA or BA metal out of BOS.)

I anticipate using EI for travel to the British Isles (and some of western Europe) and hope that their rumored return to oneworld actually happens. (If it does my life platinum status on AA— assuming it endures— may give me some seat selection advantages.) But Dublin— with its US customs pre-clearance— is infinitely better for connections than the out of control shopping mall called LHR. I also expect to fly LH and LX and FI, all of whom have one of more nonstops from BOS to their European hub(s).

Gone will be the opportunistic trips to Europe or the Caribbean where I would take off for three or four days because I saw a fantastic fare on AA and grabbed it. Gone will be the willingness to suffer horrible connections (either because they were too short or too long) at airports like DFW and LHR because I knew I was earning a solid amount of miles. Gone will be the mileage runs to faraway places I never would have otherwise visited because the value was too good not to go.

I have had a great time flying around the world. But only because of the upgrades and awards that I knew I was earning and often using. Now that they will be substantially diminished, I am retiring from active flying. But it was great while it lasted.

brp

Good way to look at it. It's good for AA in just about all cases, and good for the passengers in only a few (somewhat aberrational) cases.

We have certain flight we take every year, so I'll call those "need to take," even if not in a business setting. The rest are "where should we go to get the rest of our miles." We now need fewer of the latter.

And the mix of more premium is good for us as well as AA.

Cheers.