aztimm

Answer: Fly GRK-DFW for your onward connections. While the upgrade list for AUS-DFW is normally 30+ (even 60 isn't unheard of, since all elites are automatically added), I often see empty seats in F when I fly GRK-DFW. From where I live, the drive is very similar, except no tolls driving up to Killeen
It is mostly the E170-variants on GRK-DFW (occasionally E140 variants, that don't have F); with 12 seats in F.
The fares are usually about the same. GRK is far smaller than AUS, so you don't need to plan as much time for parking, getting to the terminal, and through security.
I had no idea until I was pricing flights last year on Google flights, and received a message, "fares are less from GRK," and I looked further and tried it out.

Herb687

The fare discrepancy seems to have disappeared but a few years ago it was sometimes cheaper to originate trips out of Waco than DFW. Sometimes in paid F (though at the time ACT-DFW was all ERJ so only F on the connection out of DFW). It's about an hour and a half to drive to ACT and parking is (or was) free when you get there.

I pretty much always buy F on flights that matter (> 950 miles is where it matters to me) but looking at my travel this year out of DFW where I've bought coach and rolled the dice on upgrades I have these successful upgrades as a Plat:
DFW-ATL
DFW-GRR
DFW-JAX
DFW-MCI
I've also missed upgrades as a Plat in three of those same markets (ATL/JAX/MCI).

Directionality matters as much as day/time: Flying DFW>ATL on a Monday morning on AA you will probably see a 50+ pax upgrade list. Fly ATL>DFW at the exact same time and you might clear as a Gold. Reverse that for Thursday afternoon. DFW POO pax will favor AA while ATL POO pax will favor DL.

flyer0123

It is true even for ExPlat. I was 15 on the list for AUS-DFW last week, 11 DFW-SFO, SFO-LAX Cleared at 100 hours and LAX-AUS 6 on the list. The saving grace was that the Chicken Sandwich was good

CMK10

That was my experience as a Platinum from August, 2016 to November, 2018. I averaged a 60-70% upgrade success rate based out of RDU and CLT.

Incidentally, as an EXP I'm finding most of my upgrades are clearing at T-100 unless it's a tough to upgrade flight and then I'm usually getting them at the gate. I've had very good luck as an EXP on upgrades this year. About 75% success and if I remove last minute, often day before, purchases on business trips it's over 90%.

USFlyerUS

There most definitely are. I think on maybe 75% of my flights recently I've had to show my seatmate where the tray table is or how to pull out the smaller drink tray, which any elite would surely know (I hope).

enpremiere

Let's not be so glum -

As old grandpappy enpremiere used to say, when AA closes an upgrade window, it opens a downgrade door.

donotblink

I'm experiencing this issue this week, I'm now more than 12 hours into my upgrade window where F only has two seats taken out of twelve and I can't get an upgrade. I'm also seeing this on another flight where there's 4 out of 8 seats available and I can't get an upgrade in the window for that either.

fotographer

don’t be surprised, AA has been holding back for a while , a few weeks ago DFW -ATL 7 of out 8 seats open in F open 2 hours before flight , cleared at 30 minutes before departure

Reima

My last two upgrades cleared just after the 72 hour window opened. The flights were PHL-IAH-PHL last week.

metallo

Clearing down to four seats at the window has been common on many routes lately (e.g. 8 seat cabin could go from J7 to J4 at the window), but the remaining seats often aren't cleared until just before T-24h, when the cabin will be cleared down to J1.

Other routes may have more seats held back even longer in anticipation of selling J seats, but I've found the RM strategy to be quite predictable lately on most domestic routes.

Antarius

My recent experience.
MSY-PHX cleared at T100 (5 out of 8 seats open before)
PHX-SJC cleared at T-48 (4 of 16 available before)
SFO-DFW cleared at T24 for 2 pax (4 of 16 available before)
DFW-IAH cleared at T100 for 2 pax (6 of 8 available before)

enviroian

Wow. Surprised at that one. You must have a healthy YTD EQD!

MarkOK

I'd prefer them to just hold onto the seats until T-30 min.

I've gotten more F upgrades taken back due to misconnects than I have actually gotten to enjoy in the last two years because there is never any F left when I get on the rebooked flight. During Covid, I've been the -only- person on the upgrade list more than once when I walk up to gate because they cleared all the upgrades already.

When they upgrade all the seats during the windows, a gold that leaves straight from DFW can get an advantage over an ExecPlat that has to connect due to the chances that the (too often unavoidable) 60 minute layover gets a >10 minute delay forcing a rebooked connection due to the 50 minute minimum connection time.

FlyingEgghead

AFAIK, MCT isn't enforced for day-of-travel delays (as opposed to advance schedule changes). If you end up with under 50 minutes in real time, you'll hustle to your next gate and they won't rebook you unless you actually miss your connection, right? When it plays out live, people frequently make successful connections under MCT. In fact, MCT is chosen to build in a margin of safety so you can still likely connect even with a modest delay.

MarkOK

If you are 'officially' delayed in your arrival time to within the MCT, they kick you off your connection and prompt you to choose a new flight on the App. Your boarding pass no longer works. If you just taxi to the gate late, you may very well be able to make it.

I have lost upgrades DFW-SEA, DFW-MIA (went from a 772 J seat to a 737 max coach seat, ouch), DFW-ATL, DFW-DCA, DFW-MSY and twice on DFW-RNO in the last 3 years that were previously confirmed due to misconnections due to delayed SWO-DFW Eagle flights, and in all cases there was no F left on the new flight, even though in all but one case there was still more than an hour before boarding the new flight.

-- On one of these DFW-RNO flights, we made the connection right before they closed the door and the agent did reticket us back on that flight but she had to assign me (and my companion) seats in MCE (at least we got that?) because the previously confirmed F seats were given away already and I guess she wasn't about to go in there and un-upgrade them. I got to sit just two rows and behind a curtain watching the two people enjoy the seats that were mine, and this was pre-covid. The entire upgrade list cleared on that flight too, those last two cleared probably at boarding time.

-- The last one was DFW-SEA; I and a companion upgrade was confirmed DFW-SEA. Our first flight was put on a rolling delay waiting for some fog to clear, and the last update put our official arrival time moved to being 48 minutes before the next flight. AA's system kicked us out of those seats and off that flight and on the App we had to choose a new connecting flight. We ended up landing 15 minutes early (of course) so I was ready to make a go for it (however, the app wouldn't let me rebook back onto that flight because our arrival time was still the delayed time) -- After 10 minutes of taxiing and 15 minutes sitting at the gate waiting for a gate crew to operate the jet bridge, that connection ended up being too tight anyways (this was an E Eagles-nest to A connection). On the new flight, there was just me, my companion (numbers 1 and 2) and one other person on the upgrade list for a full in F flight (at T-2 hours).

--- I was either number 1 on upgrade list and didn't clear on all these flights, except A. DFW-DCA and the other DFW-RNO, both of which I was number 2 (and number 1 did clear), and B. the DFW-MSY flight (where I was like number 50 out of 100 on the new flight. I have no idea what that was about -- the morning flight was upgradable at T-100 as a low-EQD ExecPlat but the early afternoon flight was almost an elite-only flight!)

I have only cleared into F successfully outbound on 1 flight (DFW-MSY),and on a reconnect for 1 partial flight (DFW-DCA rebook got me DFW-HSV-DCA and HSV-DCA did clear on a E175), and inbound on 3 flights (BWI-DFW (Good Friday 2019), SEA-DFW (COVID), and RNO-DFW(COVID)). So, like I said, I have missed more complementary upgrades that were previously cleared than complementary upgrades that I actually got to use, largely because of the practice of clearing so many flights with just 1 (or no) F seats left during the pre-gate control upgrade window. (and also for just being unlucky with regards to the number of delayed flights out of SWO I have dealt with)