lhl12

Today's WSJ has a long article describing DL's increasingly aggressive competitive posture in SEA, bringing it more and more into head-to-head competition with AS. There is also a very long thread on this topic in the AS Forum.

If things got to the point that AS and DL terminated their codeshare and became full-on competitors, DL would have the resources to do a lot of harm to AS.

In such a scenario, would AS be a good merger partner for AA? It seems like SEA might be a good Asian gateway for AA, and SEA is not an insignificant metropolitan area for O&D traffic.

50ae

We already share lounge access with them so sounds good though I'm sure they would bring the service down to AA level in doing so.

SJC AA

This would be great for AA's network, which has huge gaps in California and the Pacific Northwest. Will it ever happen, especially so soon after the last merger? Doubtful.

CDKing

AA cannot afford AS. Expanded partnership is all that is going to happen as AS and DL drift further apart. They are going to be busy enough merging both US and AA.

pantanal

Would be hard to integrate another airline while they are still working on the US air integration.

UA Fan

I hope not. Tired of all these mergers.

MiamiAirport Formerly NY George

AS seems to be doing very well as an independent niche airline. I see no reason they would want to tie up with AA. Bigger is not always the final business goal.

Phoenixtinct

I don't think that's necessarily the case - AS is a MUCH smaller airline than either AA or US. There won't be that much to integrate. Hubs at SEA, PDX, LAX and ANC with very few routes to overlap won't cause a difficult or lengthy integration. At LAX, new AA will have 2 Terminals - 4 and 6 plus gates at TBIT and that's not even counting the US gate(s) at T3. It will be a good combination if that were to happen.

Based on the current players, if AS were to merge with anyone, the best suitor would be AA - DL is being very aggressive and they have presence at SLC, LAX and significant buildup at SEA, so not the best candidate for a merger with AS. United has LAX, SFO and DEN, so they have the West Coast covered. Yes, they don't have SEA but you can't have it all. And United is not in a position to go through another merger just yet. So, AA is the only remaining sensible choice. They only have LAX and now PHX but it's highly insufficient West Coast presence.

Personally, I'd like to see the remaining carriers combine - HA, AS, B6, VX in whatever combo it may occur and possibly - NK, F9, G4

Having at least 4 major carriers - AA, DL, UA and (HA/AS/B6/VX) with 1 "low-cost" - WN and at least 1 ultra low-cost (NK/F9/G4) should be more than sufficient to satisfy the needs of price-sensitive and other travelers.

eponymous_coward

Yeah, reducing competition has been awesome for prices, avoiding fees, frequent flyer benefits, and service.

Except the opposite of that.

I do not understand the "bigger is better" crowd. Often it is not. Go look at the continual kvetching on the UA forum if you think otherwise.

Why should a well run airline need to merge instead of grow organically? Just to satisfy the fetish of people who want to see lots of dots on a map in the back of the complimentary in flight magazine? I guess there are people who would rather pay out the nose for one airline serving their hub airport that has FF benefits, as opposed to having choices that don't involve slavish loyalty or connecting flights on RJs. I imagine they would have loved Aeroflot back in the day.

flyer703

I think it would make more sense for AS to just join OW. Seems like the DL relationship will be coming to an end after all that's going on in SEA, and if so that's a natural fit for them.

I just flew them DFW-PDX and was actually pretty impressed.

lhrsfo

This would be a very sensible step - deepens the relationship with AA and distances from DL. If things then develop towards a merger, so be it.

Chugach

After seeing how AA gobbled up Reno Air and completely dismantled their route network, no thanks.

BoeingBoy

Although most people think of AS in terms of it's ANC and lower 48 service, it is very much a niche carrier and I'd worry that someone like Parker would screw it up. How many carriers do EAS flights with 737's? How many carriers fly combi passenger/freight flights. How many carriers have to tanker fuel into small airports to maintain a supply for use as needed? How many carriers serve airports with only a single gravel runway? How many carriers maintain EAS hubs in towns no bigger than AGS, TRI or FAY? Heck, how many carriers serve a number of towns with 1000 people or less? That's what you get when you have primarily one carrier serving an area the size of the lower 48 with the majority of people in two cities.

As isn't just a niche carrier - Spirit and Allegient have that distinction. AS is a unique carrier.

Jim

Chugach

Completely agree, with one minor correction: All of AS' airports now have paved runways. The "new" 734 combis (which are probably going away) aren't capable of landing on gravel like the old 732's.

But yeah, I don't see AA chomping at the bit to serve ADK or YAK.

BOB W

It wasn't too long ago that AS market cap was much higher than AA. Seems to me that AS would be the buyer, taking over a barely adequate airline and bringing the AS culture worldwide.^^