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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

Old Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am
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Last edit by: IADCAflyer
Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)


Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

Old Jan 4, 2019, 1:26 pm
  #1036  
 
Join Date: Sep 2000
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Here's an interesting one being floated around airliners.net and one which several people are repeating: IAD-LHR non-stop on AA. Apparently the rumor has some traction.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 1:47 pm
  #1037  
 
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer
Here's an interesting one being floated around airliners.net and one which several people are repeating: IAD-LHR non-stop on AA. Apparently the rumor has some traction.
JonNYC has brought that one up numerous times on Twitter:


And...


And a little less specific (to IAD, anyway)...

econometrics is offline  
Old Jan 4, 2019, 2:23 pm
  #1038  
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While AA doesn't have much of a presence at IAD it certainly does at DCA. I'm assuming AA is losing their share of European flights as who would want to deal with the often Washington to PHL/JFK nightmare or backtrack through ORD.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 2:38 pm
  #1039  
 
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
While AA doesn't have much of a presence at IAD it certainly does at DCA. I'm assuming AA is losing their share of European flights as who would want to deal with the often Washington to PHL/JFK nightmare or backtrack through ORD.
That would be me. I have started flying BA more but am opening to alternatives.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 3:09 pm
  #1040  
 
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Originally Posted by newyorkgeorge
While AA doesn't have much of a presence at IAD it certainly does at DCA. I'm assuming AA is losing their share of European flights as who would want to deal with the often Washington to PHL/JFK nightmare or backtrack through ORD.
The DCA --> PHL and DCA --> JFK flights are all timed to link up with European banks. Of course if weather in the northeast goes sideways, all bets are off.

If AA wants to consider IAD-LHR (it would be a wild a guess as to the equipment but I would think 763 or 788), AA might want to consider a secure shuttle from DCA to IAD. Passengers who are flying into DCA and connecting to the IAD-LHR flight would be put onto a sterile bus that proceeds directly from DCA to IAD - bus doors locked and sealed. Not sure of TSA has an allowance for this type of procedure (kind of like the ABE-EWR bus that UA (or was it CO)) used to run, but it would help populate the plane with additional passengers.

Obviously from a loyalty standpoint, AA must be concerned that its losing passengers to either BA or to UA owing to non-stop service at IAD.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 3:41 pm
  #1041  
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer
If AA wants to consider IAD-LHR (it would be a wild a guess as to the equipment but I would think 763 or 788), AA might want to consider a secure shuttle from DCA to IAD. Passengers who are flying into DCA and connecting to the IAD-LHR flight would be put onto a sterile bus that proceeds directly from DCA to IAD - bus doors locked and sealed. Not sure of TSA has an allowance for this type of procedure (kind of like the ABE-EWR bus that UA (or was it CO)) used to run, but it would help populate the plane with additional passengers.

Obviously from a loyalty standpoint, AA must be concerned that its losing passengers to either BA or to UA owing to non-stop service at IAD.
AA doesn't really lose anything to BA, with the JBV they have a revenue share between the US-LHR so in theory it doesn't matter if AA or BA metal operates any given flight.

AA taking over (or adding an add'l frequency) on IAD-LHR would have zero to do with trying to grab connecting traffic from DCA. East coast connecting pax to LHR already have tons of options via JFK, PHL, CLT, MIA, ORD, RDU, etc. etc not to mention the growing list of BA gateways. If I had to guess, some strategy gurus at AA and BA have decided that putting AA metal on IAD-LHR might help increase their share of the DC-LHR and beyond market. Who knows.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 4:29 pm
  #1042  
 
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IF AA starts IAD-LHR, watch UA retaliate and (re)start PHL-LHR.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 4:35 pm
  #1043  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
IF AA starts IAD-LHR, watch UA retaliate and (re)start PHL-LHR.
They might, but what are UA's chances of success at PHL? AA has a hub in the WAS area. UA does not have a hub in PHL - unless UA plans on slashing fares at PHL which would erode its own yields at EWR.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 4:41 pm
  #1044  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
IF AA starts IAD-LHR, watch UA retaliate and (re)start PHL-LHR.

UA never flew PHL- LHR so it wouldn't be a restart , you might be thinking of Delta. Where would the slot come from I serious doubt UA would use one of their Slots from one of their hubs to use on a losing proposition.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 6:38 pm
  #1045  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
IF AA starts IAD-LHR, watch UA retaliate and (re)start PHL-LHR.
UA might as well start CLT, DFW, and MIA to LHR then. AA already kind of flies the IAD route through the codeshare/JBA.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 7:34 pm
  #1046  
 
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As much as I'd like to fly AA IAD-LHR, BA had two to three planes a day and connects in T5. I'd be hard pressed to understand exactly how a fourth flight per day would work or whether BA would cut and move service somewhere else (now that they're flying to CHS!).
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 8:19 pm
  #1047  
 
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Originally Posted by perseus11
IF AA starts IAD-LHR, watch UA retaliate and (re)start PHL-LHR.
UA can't even make PHL-LAX non-stop work, so I do not see this happening any time in, oh, the next century.
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 10:20 pm
  #1048  
 
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Originally Posted by 1kBill
UA can't even make PHL-LAX non-stop work, so I do not see this happening any time in, oh, the next century.
Retaliation has little to do with logic (in this scenario).
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Old Jan 4, 2019, 11:10 pm
  #1049  
 
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer
If AA wants to consider IAD-LHR (it would be a wild a guess as to the equipment but I would think 763 or 788), AA might want to consider a secure shuttle from DCA to IAD. Passengers who are flying into DCA and connecting to the IAD-LHR flight would be put onto a sterile bus that proceeds directly from DCA to IAD - bus doors locked and sealed. Not sure of TSA has an allowance for this type of procedure (kind of like the ABE-EWR bus that UA (or was it CO)) used to run, but it would help populate the plane with additional passengers.

Obviously from a loyalty standpoint, AA must be concerned that its losing passengers to either BA or to UA owing to non-stop service at IAD.
As others have said, this would be a transfer within the joint venture of some or all (my money would be on some) of the BA flights; AA doesnt compete with BA. And it would be about serving WAS local traffic: I cant imagine AA would prefer to operate a bus to connect passengers DCA-IAD instead of just routing them via another hub. And I find it hard to believe that the TSA would consider a bus that leaves airport property to be secure for passengers. According to the UA forum, the ABE-EWR bus drops passengers off landside in both directions even though it picks passengers up airside at EWR.

Originally Posted by ckendall
As much as I'd like to fly AA IAD-LHR, BA had two to three planes a day and connects in T5. I'd be hard pressed to understand exactly how a fourth flight per day would work or whether BA would cut and move service somewhere else (now that they're flying to CHS!).
I would certainly assume this would be replacing a BA flight, not a new flight. Either for matching capacity/product more precisely to the market or for WAS AA loyalists who (for whatever reason: frequent flyer program, product, and misunderstanding of the Fly America Act being three obvious ones on this particular route) prefer an AA plane enough that replacing a BA flight with an AA one would make them less likely to fly UA or another competitor.
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Old Jan 5, 2019, 12:48 am
  #1050  
 
Join Date: Aug 2013
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Originally Posted by IADCAflyer
If AA wants to consider IAD-LHR (it would be a wild a guess as to the equipment but I would think 763 or 788), AA might want to consider a secure shuttle from DCA to IAD. Passengers who are flying into DCA and connecting to the IAD-LHR flight would be put onto a sterile bus that proceeds directly from DCA to IAD - bus doors locked and sealed. Not sure of TSA has an allowance for this type of procedure (kind of like the ABE-EWR bus that UA (or was it CO)) used to run, but it would help populate the plane with additional passengers.
This is sure enough one of the silliest suggestions Ive seen on FT this year.

Although to be fair to IADCAflyer, we are only at the 5th of January.
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