Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am
Last edit by: IADCAflyer
Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.Note:
Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80
Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.
See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.
Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.
Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)
Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on
All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)
Jun 13, 2018, 7:07 am
#946
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 167
I disagree on that.
The issue, of not being able to make routes work, was mostly the equipment.
Look at DUS-ORD - AA was able to drive LH436 out of the market, as the fares were quite cheap.
But when they were the sole operator of this route, they went seasonal and kept flying the 767 to DUS.
The Europeans didn't care about the flag on the fuselage - they mostly complained about missing personal IFE and powerports.
Some of the pax were confused by the security procedures, but in the end the hard product killed it!
And look at other routes to Europe, that didn't make it, since 2010...they were most likely served by the 75 or 76.
The issue, of not being able to make routes work, was mostly the equipment.
Look at DUS-ORD - AA was able to drive LH436 out of the market, as the fares were quite cheap.
But when they were the sole operator of this route, they went seasonal and kept flying the 767 to DUS.
The Europeans didn't care about the flag on the fuselage - they mostly complained about missing personal IFE and powerports.
Some of the pax were confused by the security procedures, but in the end the hard product killed it!
And look at other routes to Europe, that didn't make it, since 2010...they were most likely served by the 75 or 76.
Obviously ORD- DUS was not profitable for LH or AA that's why the route failed. There are plenty of 757 markets that have survived post 2010 and have been upgraded such as: LIS, AMS, DUB and SNN continues as a 757.
Jun 13, 2018, 8:08 am
#947
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Overseas routes served with the 757 or 767 are more likely to be routes that are thin or new (exploratory and developmental in nature). In other words routes that aren't proven and may not have the economics to work. Failure is not necessarily due to the aircraft and it's hard product.
(and welcome to FT)
Jun 13, 2018, 8:45 am
#948
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 153
Considering the delays, due to technicals, resulting in EU261/2004-claims, it's not surprising that AA wasn't making money in the end.
The load factors (especially up front) and the cargo loads were fine and they could have operated year-round, with 3-4 weekly in the winter.
But if e.g. 100.000€ are lost several times per month, due to reliability issues...well.
Of course, there were other issues, like the passenger service agents of 2016, who hardly generated any auxiliary revenue, as they, for some reason, rarely charged for extra/overweight bags...that season was the final nail in the coffin.
The load factors (especially up front) and the cargo loads were fine and they could have operated year-round, with 3-4 weekly in the winter.
But if e.g. 100.000€ are lost several times per month, due to reliability issues...well.
Of course, there were other issues, like the passenger service agents of 2016, who hardly generated any auxiliary revenue, as they, for some reason, rarely charged for extra/overweight bags...that season was the final nail in the coffin.
Jun 13, 2018, 9:28 am
#949
Join Date: Jul 2014
Posts: 167
Correlation is not causation.
Overseas routes served with the 757 or 767 are more likely to be routes that are thin or new (exploratory and developmental in nature). In other words routes that aren't proven and may not have the economics to work. Failure is not necessarily due to the aircraft and it's hard product.
(and welcome to FT)
Overseas routes served with the 757 or 767 are more likely to be routes that are thin or new (exploratory and developmental in nature). In other words routes that aren't proven and may not have the economics to work. Failure is not necessarily due to the aircraft and it's hard product.
(and welcome to FT)
Exactly....... its the market that matters more than anything else.
Jun 13, 2018, 10:04 am
#950
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: MSP/BUF/BNA/LFT
Programs: AA Plat, Priority Club Gold, Choice Privileges Gold
Posts: 1,225
Considering the delays, due to technicals, resulting in EU261/2004-claims, it's not surprising that AA wasn't making money in the end.
The load factors (especially up front) and the cargo loads were fine and they could have operated year-round, with 3-4 weekly in the winter.
But if e.g. 100.000€ are lost several times per month, due to reliability issues...well.
Of course, there were other issues, like the passenger service agents of 2016, who hardly generated any auxiliary revenue, as they, for some reason, rarely charged for extra/overweight bags...that season was the final nail in the coffin.
The load factors (especially up front) and the cargo loads were fine and they could have operated year-round, with 3-4 weekly in the winter.
But if e.g. 100.000€ are lost several times per month, due to reliability issues...well.
Of course, there were other issues, like the passenger service agents of 2016, who hardly generated any auxiliary revenue, as they, for some reason, rarely charged for extra/overweight bags...that season was the final nail in the coffin.
Anecdotally, the loads on some flights may have been good but in the aggregate the loads and the yields were poor on the route. CX had the same problem when they attempted DUS.
LH/EW has a lock on the DUS-based business traffic.
Jun 14, 2018, 2:55 am
#951
Join Date: Jun 2018
Posts: 153
Okay, let's just pretend that the offered hard product wasn't the problem and that nonstop business travel ex DUS is basically all going to LH/EW...
How is DL able to maintain a year-round operation of DL25/91 !?
What are they getting right, that AA can't figure out?
How is DL able to maintain a year-round operation of DL25/91 !?
What are they getting right, that AA can't figure out?
Jun 14, 2018, 6:42 am
#952
Join Date: Sep 2000
Location: DCA/IAD
Programs: AA EXP; 1W Emerald; HHonors Diamond; Marriott Gold; UA dirt
Posts: 7,816
Jun 14, 2018, 7:19 am
#953
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: DEN
Programs: AA EXP, AA Million Miles, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 2,586
Or let's say this: Why is AA able to maintain service to Montevideo, while no other US carrier flies there? (for example).
Jun 14, 2018, 5:40 pm
#954
Join Date: Aug 2010
Programs: AA 1.6MM EXP; UA GS; SPG LTG,Hilton Gold, Marriott Gold
Posts: 1,477
With the demise of AB and LH having taking over a large majority of their operations, I'd say the answer's reasonably straightforward. LH was even running 744 turns to TXL from FRA for a period to cover the disappearance of AB from the skies last year. Now of course LH's strategy is to primarily serve TXL via EW, but between LH and EW (not to mention the degree to which LX, OS, SK and other *A carriers fly there...yeah, TXL is pretty much dominated by *A in general and the DLH group in particular.
Jul 14, 2018, 7:53 pm
#955
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 37
I really hope they bring ORD-DUS back, and maybe start a new ORD-TXL route? If they can make ORD-BCN work with the 788, one would think they can make DUS and TXL work, especially given the possibly higher number of biz travelers (like myself) to DUS compared with BCN.
Jul 14, 2018, 8:35 pm
#956
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: NYC
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 1,372
I can't speak to the viability of ORD-DUS/TXL, but the business traffic on that route has almost nothing to do with ORD-BCN, which is summer seasonal and driven primarily be leisure (i.e. not a business market).
Jul 14, 2018, 8:51 pm
#957
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
If service to DUS ever comes back, or if service to TXL is inaugurated, my money would be on PHL getting those routes, and not ORD. Because they would be entirely made up of U.S. and Germany originating traffic. And ORD would require a lot of backtracking traffic on the U.S. side of the equation. But given that LH Group are picking up a a few of the fomer Air Berlin routes to the U.S., my guess is that DUS is not a possible candidate. And AA might hold out on Berlin service until there is a certain date for BER to finally open up in the near future. They may not want to incure the costs of opening up a station (TXL) if they will have to move after one or two years. However, I would love for AA to serve Berlin and would use the service regularly.
Jul 14, 2018, 8:52 pm
#958
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP (AC), DL G (SC), Bonvoy LTP, & IHG AMB
Posts: 1,798
NAP? That would be a surprise. I’m struggling to rationalize PHL to NAP after AA cut TLV for example. I’d think you’d see a return to that market before entry to NAP. Very interesting though.
And having lived in NAP for two years, oneWorld wasn’t practical. There was a poorly timed flight to BCN and three a day with BA to LGW, which would then require a bus transfer to LHR. Aside from AZ, LH had the most traffic with three a day to MUC and one to FRA. The first MUC flight was well timed for Atlantic connections.
And having lived in NAP for two years, oneWorld wasn’t practical. There was a poorly timed flight to BCN and three a day with BA to LGW, which would then require a bus transfer to LHR. Aside from AZ, LH had the most traffic with three a day to MUC and one to FRA. The first MUC flight was well timed for Atlantic connections.
Jul 14, 2018, 9:08 pm
#959
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Usually in SAN or Central Europe.
Programs: AA:EXP/1MM. Accor/Radisson:Silver; HH:Gold; ICH:Plt Amb.
Posts: 22,307
I think the costs of operating service out of TLV is a lot higher than doing so out of NAP. But I'm still trying to wrap my head around the notion of starting service to Naples in the first place. If AA were interested in starting a new route to Italy, I think Pisa would be better choice, as it would attract people who want to visit the Tuscan coast as well as Florence (which I think many more Americans visit than Naples).
Last edited by Fanjet; Jul 14, 2018 at 9:31 pm
Jul 14, 2018, 9:38 pm
#960
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP (AC), DL G (SC), Bonvoy LTP, & IHG AMB
Posts: 1,798
Fair. Although, few if any are going to Naples; most are going in buses to Pompei and the Amalfi Coast 
. But, the idea of even seasonal service to NAP or FLP and none to BRU and only one flight to AMS still doesn't make sense to me. But, neither did BUD or PRG. I don't have any inside knowledge, but the last two destinations seemed to take a play from DL's dart board approach to new destinations as opposed to AA's more conservative approach.
. But, the idea of even seasonal service to NAP or FLP and none to BRU and only one flight to AMS still doesn't make sense to me. But, neither did BUD or PRG. I don't have any inside knowledge, but the last two destinations seemed to take a play from DL's dart board approach to new destinations as opposed to AA's more conservative approach.