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Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Old Dec 3, 19, 6:45 am   -   Wikipost
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Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)
Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)


Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
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Old Feb 7, 18, 3:41 pm
  #841  
 
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Originally Posted by ashill View Post
I don't think premium flyers from the west coast to Europe are AA's role for PHL. They're certainly happy to use the TATL capacity to fill seats in the back where needed for west coast-Europe, but as you say, from the two premium markets (SFO and LAX), you can go via JFK, not to mention LHR (including joint venture flights) and have a much better experience. Between those two hubs, AA gets you everywhere that PHL gets you with one stop. I certainly wouldn't choose to connect on the east coast to get to Europe from the west coast; I'd much rather have a long long haul. 6-7 hours is about the most unpleasant flight length for me: too long to be short, but not long enough to really sleep (particularly when you factor in meal times at the beginning and end of the flight). PHL works very well as a connecting hub to Europe from east of the Mississippi or so where a ≈6-7 hour long haul is the reality (unless you backtrack), but is much less attractive beyond that. (That said, I speak only from personal experience being based in PHL; I've only connected there once or twice.)
True but those BA surcharges render LHR far less attractive. That said, I get that it's not in AA's interest to help me lower what I pay in surcharges by improving the AA metal experience out of SFO
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Old Feb 7, 18, 3:47 pm
  #842  
 
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Originally Posted by scnzzz View Post
True but those BA surcharges render LHR far less attractive. That said, I get that it's not in AA's interest to help me lower what I pay in surcharges by improving the AA metal experience out of SFO
I don't think premium cabin award redemptions are the premium travellers AA designs their network around. There are no BA surcharges on paid business class flights.
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Old Feb 7, 18, 3:55 pm
  #843  
 
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Originally Posted by ashill View Post
I don't think premium cabin award redemptions are the premium travellers AA designs their network around. There are no BA surcharges on paid business class flights.
Well technically there is very high YQ on paid flights too, but that's equally so on AA, so it's not an issue.

Your point is spot on though - award travel is not what builds a network.
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Old Feb 7, 18, 4:03 pm
  #844  
 
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Originally Posted by scnzzz View Post
True but those BA surcharges render LHR far less attractive. That said, I get that it's not in AA's interest to help me lower what I pay in surcharges by improving the AA metal experience out of SFO
Originally Posted by ashill View Post
I don't think premium cabin award redemptions are the premium travellers AA designs their network around. There are no BA surcharges on paid business class flights.
Originally Posted by Ldnn1 View Post
Well technically there is very high YQ on paid flights too, but that's equally so on AA, so it's not an issue.

Your point is spot on though - award travel is not what builds a network.
No argument - I acknowledged as much already...
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Old Feb 7, 18, 7:02 pm
  #845  
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Old Feb 7, 18, 7:11 pm
  #846  
 
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Originally Posted by MOC991 View Post
<redacted>
As for the 767s and A330s, that is from AA management so I guess you can complain to AA if you don't like what I said about that.
Again, the 767s are going to be based out of MIA and PHL and are not replacing the A330s at PHL. They are being used to upgauge from 757s and on new routes.
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Old Feb 9, 18, 4:07 pm
  #847  
 
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Sorry. I think my posts came off as more adversarial than intended. I only meant to make a point that I think CLT could support more TATL, and then as I found more info I added that to the discussion. As I've said, either good PHL connections to more places in the Southeast timed correctly so you can do one-stop TATL like you can with Delta(ATL) and United(IAD and ORD) or more TATL flights from CLT. It would probably be some balance of the two, but I hope they can figure out a way to balance these hubs right so everybody in each region has a good experience. PHL and CLT could both afford some improvements physically and in service.

As this article says, Madrid is probably the only spot they're really looking at for Iberia. I suppose until OW gets a stronger position in France and further east with AB gone in Central Europe, MAD, DUB, or HEL are probably all they'll look at for year-round. AMS would be nice for the lower landing/takeoff taxes, decent business base, and good launching point for the rest of central Europe, but I'm not sure that would translate into a profitable year-round route. I suppose AA would know best when they look at their load factors on those seasonal CLT routes.

Originally Posted by bridge29 View Post
Again, the 767s are going to be based out of MIA and PHL and are not replacing the A330s at PHL. They are being used to upgauge from 757s and on new routes.
I posted the article before but I didn't post the quotes.
Robert Isom, American president, and Vasu Raja, vice president of network and schedule planning, said Charlotte is in line for more trans-Atlantic service as the carrier revamps its fleet so that 767s are grouped in Philadelphia and Miami.

That would likely free Airbus A330s to fly Charlotte-Europe, Raja said Thursday at American’s media and investor day in Dallas.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tedreed.../#13da583727f3

Last edited by MOC991; Feb 9, 18 at 4:30 pm
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Old Feb 9, 18, 5:33 pm
  #848  
 
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Originally Posted by MOC991 View Post
<redacted>
........................
As several of you noted, PHL is terrible and ranks the lowest in customer satisfaction with people actively avoiding it....
Well I almost give up, BUT, JFK, ORD, LAX, BOS and EWR have JDP Ratings almost exactly the same as PHL - the lowest end of the satisfaction survey. Maybe everyone should avoid these airports also and instead the airlines should route everything through CLT
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Old Feb 9, 18, 7:58 pm
  #849  
 
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Originally Posted by MOC991 View Post
Sorry. I think my posts came off as more adversarial than intended. I only meant to make a point that I think CLT could support more TATL, and then as I found more info I added that to the discussion. As I've said, either good PHL connections to more places in the Southeast timed correctly so you can do one-stop TATL like you can with Delta(ATL) and United(IAD and ORD) or more TATL flights from CLT. It would probably be some balance of the two, but I hope they can figure out a way to balance these hubs right so everybody in each region has a good experience. PHL and CLT could both afford some improvements physically and in service.

As this article says, Madrid is probably the only spot they're really looking at for Iberia. I suppose until OW gets a stronger position in France and further east with AB gone in Central Europe, MAD, DUB, or HEL are probably all they'll look at for year-round. AMS would be nice for the lower landing/takeoff taxes, decent business base, and good launching point for the rest of central Europe, but I'm not sure that would translate into a profitable year-round route. I suppose AA would know best when they look at their load factors on those seasonal CLT routes.


I posted the article before but I didn't post the quotes.

My apologies that I got a little out of line. I see the quote you posted but beware that article was written by Ted Reed who writes extensively about air travel but every article he writes is about CLT and how great all things CLT are. I think what is actually happening is the 767's are getting sent to PHL to open new routes that are out of range for the 757 but too small to support larger aircraft such as the A333 . Again I think we are going to see CLT lose some TATL once the A333 fleet is retired. I remember about a year ago when it looked like PHL was being drawn down, I saw a quote from Isom that said PHL will be the main transatlantic gateway for new routes if any are added and he said CLT will continue to grow domestically but would see less international in the future. I think if you scroll back through this thread you will see the quote... In any event its going to be interesting to see what happens
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Old Feb 11, 18, 7:16 am
  #850  
 
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Originally Posted by Cltfc View Post
I remember about a year ago when it looked like PHL was being drawn down, I saw a quote from Isom that said PHL will be the main transatlantic gateway for new routes if any are added and he said CLT will continue to grow domestically but would see less international in the future. I think if you scroll back through this thread you will see the quote... In any event its going to be interesting to see what happens
I think it is clear that AA has signaled their decision on the Int'l hub status for PHL by planning on opening a Flagship Lounge there..
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Old Feb 11, 18, 10:30 am
  #851  
 
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Originally Posted by MOC991 View Post
Sorry. I think my posts came off as more adversarial than intended. I only meant to make a point that I think CLT could support more TATL, and then as I found more info I added that to the discussion. As I've said, either good PHL connections to more places in the Southeast timed correctly so you can do one-stop TATL like you can with Delta(ATL) and United(IAD and ORD) or more TATL flights from CLT. It would probably be some balance of the two, but I hope they can figure out a way to balance these hubs right so everybody in each region has a good experience. PHL and CLT could both afford some improvements physically and in service.

As this article says, Madrid is probably the only spot they're really looking at for Iberia. I suppose until OW gets a stronger position in France and further east with AB gone in Central Europe, MAD, DUB, or HEL are probably all they'll look at for year-round. AMS would be nice for the lower landing/takeoff taxes, decent business base, and good launching point for the rest of central Europe, but I'm not sure that would translate into a profitable year-round route. I suppose AA would know best when they look at their load factors on those seasonal CLT routes.


I posted the article before but I didn't post the quotes.
This quote from the article makes zero sense "Under the plan, the 767s would no longer serve Charlotte. Instead, Charlotte would have access to more Airbus A330s, displaced from Philadelphia where 767s would be grouped." - Does AA know that 767s are not operating from CLT, and ALL their European routes are on A330s !

Also the quote "As for Charlotte-Asia, Raja said the flight distance it is about 6,875 miles between Charlotte and Tokyo means a flight is operationally challenging because at times even an airplane such as the Boeing 787, a smaller long-range aircraft, would have to operate at less than full capacity to cover the distance." - all their US-China flts are longer than this except for LAX PEK marginally, and they are all operated by some variant of a 787?
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Old Feb 12, 18, 11:46 am
  #852  
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Originally Posted by Hollinger Clarke View Post
This quote from the article makes zero sense "Under the plan, the 767s would no longer serve Charlotte. Instead, Charlotte would have access to more Airbus A330s, displaced from Philadelphia where 767s would be grouped." - Does AA know that 767s are not operating from CLT, and ALL their European routes are on A330s !

Also the quote "As for Charlotte-Asia, Raja said the flight distance it is about 6,875 miles between Charlotte and Tokyo means a flight is operationally challenging because at times even an airplane such as the Boeing 787, a smaller long-range aircraft, would have to operate at less than full capacity to cover the distance." - all their US-China flts are longer than this except for LAX PEK marginally, and they are all operated by some variant of a 787?
But the A350 would make it... But that is a whole different story
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Old Feb 12, 18, 3:03 pm
  #853  
 
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Originally Posted by FlightNurse View Post
But the A350 would make it... But that is a whole different story
6,875 is not a distance where a 787 - any variant of it - would need to make take a weight penalty, in either direction.

Either the article is misquoting Raja or he gave a very simplified answer in lieu of going into more detail.

I am quite sure that the vp of network planning knows the range of his aircraft.
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Old Feb 12, 18, 3:09 pm
  #854  
 
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Originally Posted by DWFI View Post
6,875 is not a distance where a 787 - any variant of it - would need to make take a weight penalty, in either direction.

Either the article is misquoting Raja or he gave a very simplified answer in lieu of going into more detail.

I am quite sure that the vp of network planning knows the range of his aircraft.
It's not the only thing that doesn't make sense in that article...

Originally Posted by Forbes
Looking further ahead, if Airbus and Boeing eventually develop a middle-of-the-market aircraft between the single-aisle Boeing 737 and twin-aisle Boeing 757, Charlotte is the ideal candidate for such an aircraft, potentially for international service, Isom said.
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Old Feb 12, 18, 7:34 pm
  #855  
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Originally Posted by DWFI View Post
Either the article is misquoting Raja or he gave a very simplified answer in lieu of going into more detail.
As long as we are quoting Raja, this is more pertinent than any speculation:
“It’s all about the returns you get on the airplane,” Raja said. “If you go and fly one Pacific route, on balance, that’s two airplanes. Are those two airplanes better in the Pacific or are they better flying in the Atlantic for six months of the year and flying to Hawaii for six months of the year?”

American prefers to fly the highest margin routes, rather than the longest, he said.

“In many of these far-flung destinations, you’ve got to tie up an asset or multiple assets for a long time,” he said. “But very often the total [air] market size is smaller than Lexington, Kentucky. It’s just a really risky proposition. It is not something we’re averse to but, in general, when we go into it, we like to have a partner on the other end or some knowledge of the market that helps go and de-risk it.”
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