Nov 26, 2014, 4:51 am

FlyerTalk Forums Expert How-Tos and Guides

Speculation: New Routes, Hubs, Flights (2017 Onward)

Because there is community interest in having a purely speculative discussion about whether other airports will pop up to become focus cities or hubs, new routes, etc. the following new thread has been amalgamated on this topic.

Note:

Going: 9 A330-300, ER190, some older 757-200 and 8 767-300ER (leaving 17), MD-80

Coming: Remainder of 16 Boeing 26 787-8, 22 Boeing 787-9 (began later 2016). A320 family - 100 A321neo, and B737-800 (100 737-MAX8) aircraft.

See Cranky Flier article on 2016 fleet changes, AA-HP-US. Link.

Also see: HELP DESK: General questions about aircraft equipment, fleet, seats, IFE, etc.

Speculation fun time: Will xxx be the next AA focus city / hub? (consolidated)

Obsolete posts from 2015 on have been moved to ARCHIVE: Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - 2015 on

All posts prior to 2015 have been moved here: ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)

Speculation: Possible Routes (Flights) and Hubs, Discussion - (2017 on)

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Sep 15, 2016, 9:01 am

#181

JonNYC

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JonNYC

In this one instance, airliners.net rumor didn't get as much credibility as it deserved; DUS being cancelled and new service to AMS being added, is my belief at this point. As well as some seasonal PHL routes getting axed.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JonNYC

I'm betting on both; the metal switch exactly as you describe (that, I believe is a given according to internal documentation that's been floating around) -and- a brand new AA flight to AMS from a new City.

And, now hearing of yet another new international route plus serious new reductions in existing service on a couple of money-hemoraging routes.

Sep 15, 2016, 9:21 am

#182

DMPHL

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Lol I hate when you tease like that! Although I understand the need to be prudent.

Are you talking about more cuts to PHL, and a new international route from where? Any other details you can provide, without compromising the need to not turn this into a rumor mill?

Your insight is, as always, massively appreciated.

Sep 15, 2016, 9:26 am

#183

JonNYC

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DMPHL

Can't add any detail on this one yet (might have to wait till it shows up on airliners.net-- similar to what I did with AMS in this thread) but will generically state that, IMO, there's not the -slightest- doubt that more international cuts at PHL are on the way-- the situation is quite dire.

Sep 15, 2016, 9:41 am

#184

Longboater

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JonNYC

Isn't AA planning on adding another flight to AUS next year? I'd figure they would announce it late this year and a start date of October 2017 to coincide with the Australian summer season. I figure, PHL-LIS/VCE/GLA/ATH are likely gone and potentially PHL-MUC seeing the axe. The higher cost structure of the merger and exiting Star Alliance is must really be having a hit on PHL.

Sep 15, 2016, 9:42 am

#185

econometrics

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Quote:

Originally Posted by jonnyc

and, now hearing of yet another new international route plus serious new reductions in existing service on a couple of money-hemoraging routes.

mia-tlv?!?! 😂

Sep 15, 2016, 10:51 am

#186

nova08

Join Date: May 2009

Location: PHL

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Whew, PHL International traffic is already down ~8% yoy while domestic traffic is flat.

What's the point of keeping PHL if you cut it down to ~5 year round EU destinations. It's not serving much in the way of a domestic transfer point that LGA, DCA, ORD, CLT can't already do.

Interesting that we continue to see PHL get the axe without many additions to JFK, well at least thus far.

Sucks for PHL based travelers, I suspect EWR will gain some paxs.

Sep 15, 2016, 1:44 pm

#187

eponymous_coward

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nova08

It's not serving much in the way of a domestic transfer point that LGA, DCA, ORD, CLT can't already do.

Uh, slot limits at LGA and DCA don't limit the ability to serve as a domestic transfer point?

Sep 15, 2016, 2:05 pm

#188

no1cub17

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JonNYC

Are you commavia?

Sep 15, 2016, 2:32 pm

#189

Fanjet

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Quote:

Originally Posted by nova08

You kind of answered your own question. Intl traffic at PHL is down but domestic traffic remains flat. Keep in mind that PHL still has decent O&D numbers. However, most of that O&D is for domestic passengers. That doesn't mean AA won't still have TATL flights out of PHL. But the days of having around 20 TATL flights in the peak season are behind it. I think AA is seriously evaluating the connecting traffic on some of these TATL flights at PHL. If most of the connecting traffic on a specific TATL route is to/from LAX/SFO/SAN/LAS/MCO/MIA/DCA/BOS, then I think that flight will be moved up to JFK. Where the higher O&D passenger counts will offset the loss of the ORF/CHS/GSO connecting passengers.

Quote:

Interesting that we continue to see PHL get the axe without many additions to JFK, well at least thus far.

JFK has seen an increase. But more so on the capacity side. Like 772s on what used to be 763 service; 763s on what used to be 752 service. Also, PHL-EDI did get moved up to JFK. And I expect PHL-LIS and PHL-GLA to follow suit. Maybe PHL-ATH as well.

Sep 15, 2016, 3:27 pm

#190

JonNYC

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Quote:

Originally Posted by no1cub17

Are you commavia?

No, Jewish.

Sep 15, 2016, 4:28 pm

#191

commavia

Join Date: Jul 2006

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Quote:

Originally Posted by no1cub17

Are you commavia?

No. I am.

Sep 15, 2016, 4:30 pm

#192

DA201

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Quote:

Originally Posted by JonNYC

And, now hearing of yet another new international route plus serious new reductions in existing service on a couple of money-hemoraging routes.

I'm guessing PHL is getting more cuts? Honestly, they could make PHL a huge money maker and make it work but they won't commit. They won't make money if they cut back service. PHL may not have the best O&D demand, but it does have a good amount and they could undoubtedly make the city a solid transatlantic hub. JFK is simply not as viable for AA due to heavy competition, and there isn't enough capacity there. If more routes are getting cut from PHL, I would guess MUC.

If AA is adding routes, I'm guessing it would be from DFW. Seems like they only add flights from DFW these days... They just cashed in on incentives for the newly announced DFW-FCO flight (I don't think incentives were offered for AMS). The other flights with incentives are DFW-AKL/JNB/DUB/MUC/HEL/TXL/NGO/MEL. I think AA would be interested in DFW-JNB if they had a plane which could fly that far. I know QF was talking about a potential DFW-MEL flight. DFW-DUB could happen with Aer Lingus potentially joining OW.

Sep 15, 2016, 4:34 pm

#193

JonNYC

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DA201

...I think AA would be interested in DFW-JNB if they had a plane which could fly that far.

They wouldn't.

Quote:

Originally Posted by DA201

... I know QF was talking about a potential DFW-MEL flight.

@:-)

Sep 15, 2016, 4:35 pm

#194

perseus11

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If this doom and gloom scenario for PHL is in the cards, why is AA opening a Flagship Lounge?

Sep 15, 2016, 4:48 pm

#195

JonNYC

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Quote:

Originally Posted by perseus11

If this doom and gloom scenario for PHL is in the cards, why is AA opening a Flagship Lounge?

Well, as what's supposed to be the airline's primary gateway to Europe, one is certainly called for.
That said, with things being as bad as they are with PHL TATL, tough to guess what happens next.