Odds calculator for DFW-SNA upgrade?

 
Old Oct 31, 08, 1:16 pm
  #1  
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Odds calculator for DFW-SNA upgrade?

Good day all.

I have a MR coming up on Tuesday and I have submitted a request for an upgrade (my first upgrade request!) for flight 1655, DFW-SNA. 100 hours out there are still 9 seats available in the 737-800. Since the first class cabin went from 2 seats taken to ~7 taken I'm thinking the EXPs have already been upgraded.

As a Gold, what are my odds for the upgrade? I'll spare the time and say it's 50/50, less than 100%, and somewhere between 0%-99%.

Only 2 more weeks until I make PLT!

Last edited by 777-DCA; Oct 31, 08 at 1:25 pm
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Old Oct 31, 08, 1:19 pm
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As a Gold, about 10%.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 1:39 pm
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Originally Posted by 777-DCA View Post
Good day all.

I have a MR coming up on Tuesday and I have submitted a request for an upgrade (my first upgrade request!) for flight 1655, DFW-SNA. 100 hours out there are still 9 seats available in the 737-800. Since the first class cabin went from 2 seats taken to ~7 taken I'm thinking the EXPs have already been upgraded.

As a Gold, what are my odds for the upgrade? I'll spare the time and say it's 50/50, less than 100%, and somewhere between 0%-99%.

Only 2 more weeks until I make PLT!

How many exit row seats are available?
When did you submit the request?
When did the Golds ahead of you submit their requests?
Tuesday you say... DId you vote already?
If not, make sure you do...... unless you are voting for McCain
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Old Oct 31, 08, 1:42 pm
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Originally Posted by 777-DCA View Post
Good day all.

I have a MR coming up on Tuesday and I have submitted a request for an upgrade (my first upgrade request!) for flight 1655, DFW-SNA. 100 hours out there are still 9 seats available in the 737-800. Since the first class cabin went from 2 seats taken to ~7 taken I'm thinking the EXPs have already been upgraded.
A*very* EXP-heavy route, it is entirely possible that there are still EXP waiting for upgrades.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 1:51 pm
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Originally Posted by mvoight View Post
How many exit row seats are available?
When did you submit the request?
When did the Golds ahead of you submit their requests?
Tuesday you say... DId you vote already?
If not, make sure you do...... unless you are voting for McCain
There are 6 exit row seats now available and I submitted the request last Tuesday, 1 week out.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 1:57 pm
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Originally Posted by 777-DCA View Post
There are 6 exit row seats now available and I submitted the request last Tuesday, 1 week out.
19.1 percent
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Old Oct 31, 08, 2:13 pm
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Originally Posted by bdemaria View Post
A*very* EXP-heavy route, it is entirely possible that there are still EXP waiting for upgrades.
Agreed. My lowest percentage route over the last 2 years, with a moderate sample size.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 2:15 pm
  #8  
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The Up-Check® calculator puts the odds of you clearing to First at 2.67%.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 3:35 pm
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Originally Posted by HNL View Post
The Up-Check® calculator puts the odds of you clearing to First at 2.67%.
With a margin of error of 4.67% meaning there is a 2% chance of being downgraded to suitcase.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 3:50 pm
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A apt thread for Halloween.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 4:11 pm
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Originally Posted by HNL View Post
The Up-Check® calculator puts the odds of you clearing to First at 2.67%.
Still better than the odds of him getting an upgrade to business class.
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Old Oct 31, 08, 5:05 pm
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Originally Posted by mvoight View Post
Tuesday you say... DId you vote already?
If not, make sure you do...... unless you are voting for McCain
Didn't you hear....

Because of the huge voter turnout expected this year, all across the country voting will be organized as follows:
  • McCain voters: vote on Tuesday
  • Obama voters: vote on Wednesday

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Old Oct 31, 08, 5:17 pm
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SNA is generally one of the toughest upgrade markets. Easier now with few flyers, but generally unless you are EXP your chances are quite low. Mid week/off hours definitely increase your chances. It is my home airport and as an EXP I'm not anywhere near 100% in 2008... the past few months, yes, prior to that, no.
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Old Nov 5, 08, 12:20 pm
  #14  
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Well with the odds given me I'm headed to Vegas! I got upgraded on the DFW-SNA leg of my mileage run yesterday. It cleared on my way to DFW from PHL.

Lunch was a cheeseburger with condiments and a bag of salty chips. The burger was fine, nothing too bad. But quite big. Oh, and the free booze!

Only 5,000 miles left until PLAT, which I will get after my mileage run next week .
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Old Nov 5, 08, 2:40 pm
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Originally Posted by 777-DCA View Post
Oh, and the free booze!
Considering USA domestic F, that's really the most important thing!
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