Odds calculator for DFW-SNA upgrade?
 

Good day all.

I have a MR coming up on Tuesday and I have submitted a request for an upgrade (my first upgrade request!) for flight 1655, DFW-SNA. 100 hours out there are still 9 seats available in the 737-800. Since the first class cabin went from 2 seats taken to ~7 taken I'm thinking the EXPs have already been upgraded.

As a Gold, what are my odds for the upgrade? I'll spare the time and say it's 50/50, less than 100%, and somewhere between 0%-99%.

Only 2 more weeks until I make PLT! ^

As a Gold, about 10%.

How many exit row seats are available?
When did you submit the request?
When did the Golds ahead of you submit their requests?
Tuesday you say... DId you vote already?
If not, make sure you do...... unless you are voting for McCain :) :)

A*very* EXP-heavy route, it is entirely possible that there are still EXP waiting for upgrades.

There are 6 exit row seats now available and I submitted the request last Tuesday, 1 week out. :td:

19.1 percent

Agreed. My lowest percentage route over the last 2 years, with a moderate sample size.

The Up-Check® calculator puts the odds of you clearing to First at 2.67%.

With a margin of error of 4.67% meaning there is a 2% chance of being downgraded to suitcase.

A apt thread for Halloween.

Still better than the odds of him getting an upgrade to business class. :)

Didn't you hear....

Because of the huge voter turnout expected this year, all across the country voting will be organized as follows:

• McCain voters: vote on Tuesday
• Obama voters: vote on Wednesday

;) ;) ;)

SNA is generally one of the toughest upgrade markets. Easier now with few flyers, but generally unless you are EXP your chances are quite low. Mid week/off hours definitely increase your chances. It is my home airport and as an EXP I'm not anywhere near 100% in 2008... the past few months, yes, prior to that, no.

Well with the odds given me I'm headed to Vegas! I got upgraded on the DFW-SNA leg of my mileage run yesterday. It cleared on my way to DFW from PHL.

Lunch was a cheeseburger with condiments and a bag of salty chips. The burger was fine, nothing too bad. But quite big. Oh, and the free booze! ^

Only 5,000 miles left until PLAT, which I will get after my mileage run next week .^^

Considering USA domestic F, that's really the most important thing! ^