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ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)

ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)

 
Old Jun 2, 2009, 10:28 am
  #166  
 
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: New York, NY
Posts: 3,698
You can upgrade with 15K miles and a $50 co-pay. I'd say your odds are decent if you plan well in advance; in fact, the upgrade may clear at the time you make the request.
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Old Jun 2, 2009, 10:30 am
  #167  
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Originally Posted by PCTraveler
I don't have any status on AA, am flying LAX-MIA on AA and wondering if I have any hope of upgrading.
Your chances aren't great, but it is possible.

Originally Posted by PCTraveler
I understand there is nothing similar to UA's CR-1 instrument on AA, so I would have to obtain an eVIP to upgrade in advance.

Otherwise, I would have to use miles plus a co-pay. With no status and on a transcon, does this seem possible? The flight is a 757 at 6am Wed morning and I purchased a Q fare.
Be careful in "obtaining" any eVIP (AA now calls them SWUs, just like UA). AA has been known to "look into" such transactions. As long as it's not an O fare, it can be upgraded with miles or SWUs.

If there's A inventory available, then miles plus co-pay would clear right away. If not, you'll be at the bottom of the waitlist. I'd do this right now if F is important to you.

Originally Posted by PCTraveler
Is there any other way to upgrade?

BTW, seatcounter is showing the flight zeroed out, but I don't think that is accurate as all flights that day are zeroed out, yet AA.com will sell seats on all flights. Does AA not work with seatcounter?
Here's a way: Befriend an EXP traveling by themselves on the route and see if they'll sponsor your sticker upgrade. If they do, then you'll have the benefit of their status, meaning you'll be ahead of all Plats, Golds and general members on full fares. It will cost the EXP $150 worth of stickers and EXPs no longer earn them, so they might expect some kind of favor in return.

There's another way to upgrade and that is with a kiosk-offered LFBU (cash for Load Factor Based Upgrade), but that's not very likely on LAX-MIA, since they're offered only once all elite requests are satisfied. I rarely see empty F seats between here and there.

Dunno about seatcounter. Check out www.expertflyer.com (they have a free trial) to see availability.
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Old Jul 1, 2009, 11:20 pm
  #168  
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: LOS Angeles
Programs: UA 1K, AA PLT, BA Gold
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Originally Posted by gemac
LAX-IAD = 8.395% chance of upgrade.
EWR-LAX = 17.728% chance of upgrade.

But that's just a guess. For a calculation, you will have to wait for HNL and Upcheck.
Well i guess I should sing up for the lottery since i recieved a conformation more than 100 hours out and im only a PLT
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Old Jul 1, 2009, 11:31 pm
  #169  
 
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Originally Posted by aagoldflyer
Well i guess I should sing up for the lottery since i recieved a conformation more than 100 hours out and im only a PLT
I think the odds gemac gave you are a whole lot better than your chances of winning the lottery. But glad you got the upgrade.
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Old Jul 2, 2009, 6:40 am
  #170  
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas
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Even as an EXP, on JFK-LAX...I'm not having much luck. I booked a flight 3 weeks out for JFK-LAX on July 9 (AA19)...and we're already showing 0 A availability and so I waitlisted for eVIP. Went from 11 unassigned to 6 unassigned seats (All the other flights that day have nearly full availability)-just my luck!

Sure hope I get the upgrade, that's a long flight coming back.
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Old Jul 2, 2009, 10:25 am
  #171  
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My miles+copay upgrade to J on AA 30 7/22 (LAX-JFK redeye) just cleared, thanks to Expertflyer. It looks like they released a couple of J seats into C inventory (eVIP/miles+$) on ALL the flights going LAX-JFK that day once they went past T-21 days (a bunch of flights that were C0 are now C2).
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Old Jul 2, 2009, 5:04 pm
  #172  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
My miles+copay upgrade to J on AA 30 7/22 (LAX-JFK redeye) just cleared, thanks to Expertflyer. It looks like they released a couple of J seats into C inventory (eVIP/miles+$) on ALL the flights going LAX-JFK that day once they went past T-21 days (a bunch of flights that were C0 are now C2).
Congrats! May the powers that be make JFK-LAX AA19 on July 9th next for C availability
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Old Jul 2, 2009, 8:51 pm
  #173  
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Well, all hope isn't lost- there are more seats open at the pointy end of the plane than the back on that flight. And maybe they'll release a couple and upgrade you after T-7 so they can boost up the numbers of open seats at the back of the plane.
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Old Jul 2, 2009, 11:54 pm
  #174  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
My miles+copay upgrade to J on AA 30 7/22 (LAX-JFK redeye) just cleared, thanks to Expertflyer.
Just curious, how did Expert Flyer help the upgrade clear?
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Old Jul 3, 2009, 12:38 am
  #175  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Well, all hope isn't lost- there are more seats open at the pointy end of the plane than the back on that flight. And maybe they'll release a couple and upgrade you after T-7 so they can boost up the numbers of open seats at the back of the plane.
Ugh we'll see...Now only 4 seats unassigned in J. Funny all the other flights that day have like 12+ open lol

Although, I do see about half the F cabin still unassigned. Perhaps some of these full-fare J's will get or request an upgrade to F, and thus open up their seat. We'll see! I booked this one 3 weeks in advance to the flight...so perhaps if placed on standby I'll be on the top of the list.
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Old Jul 3, 2009, 11:21 am
  #176  
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Just curious, how did Expert Flyer help the upgrade clear?
Got alerted to it being available. For some reason, AA never pulled me from standby, so called and made it happen with customer service.
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Old Jul 3, 2009, 12:11 pm
  #177  
 
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Originally Posted by eponymous_coward
Got alerted to it being available. For some reason, AA never pulled me from standby, so called and made it happen with customer service.
That 'splains it, then, good for EF alerts.
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Old Jul 5, 2009, 12:48 pm
  #178  
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
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I'm flying JFK-LHR with my mom in August. I purchased the tickets back in February. She has no status. Our reservations are linked. At the time there was availability for only one eVip upgrade. For some reason, the agent could not upgrade my mom's reservation so we did mine and waitlisted mom's. Surprisingly, she got the LHR-JFK upgrade 3 months ago. I had signed up for EF alerts but I did not get an alert before her upgrade. We're still waiting for the outbound flight upgrade. I'm not sure if we have a good chance. We're traveling on Saturday, August 15 at 6:30pm. There are 2 or 3 other JFK-LHR flights on the same day. The "seat availability" map still looks good. EF says there are 7 spots open in J. It doesn't show the C bucket yet for that flight.
If she doesn't get the upgrade, I'll switch seats with her. At least we have the upgrades for the return flights but I'm more interested in upgrading the outbound flight.
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Old Jul 6, 2009, 8:01 am
  #179  
 
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Originally Posted by moyrani
EF says there are 7 spots open in J. It doesn't show the C bucket yet for that flight.
EF DOES show C availability, but perhaps (since you refer to the J availability) you're only looking under "flight availability"? If you haven't already done so, look under "awards and upgrades."
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Old Jul 6, 2009, 10:07 am
  #180  
 
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Originally Posted by rfrost
EF DOES show C availability, but perhaps (since you refer to the J availability) you're only looking under "flight availability"? If you haven't already done so, look under "awards and upgrades."
I just looked it up again for flight 100 on 8/15 under and EF did not find C availability. There's First Upgrade availability only. I wonder why EF did not send me an alert for C if it was available at the time you saw it?
I just called the AAdvantage desk anyway and the agent said that my mom is still waitlisted and has a good chance of clearing. *crosses fingers*
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