ARCHIVE: Chances of upgrade clearing / upgrade availability - 2012 and prior)
Sep 11, 2010, 12:41 am
#1396
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 183
I need Advice Please
I do not have any status with American. I will be flying out of DCA to MIA non-stop on 9/16 in the late afternoon and returning MIA to DCA non-stop on 9/17 on the last flight of the day. I have a Y class ticket both ways. I would like to upgrade on both flights, but am trying to figure out the best way to get that done. Should I buy the 500 mile upgrades ahead of time and hope they clear before I get to the airport? If I do that, will I still have the option to upgrade at the airport, if it's available and the 500 mile upgrades I tried to apply did not go through? And, finally, does anyone know what the chances are that I will actually be able to get the upgrade on these flights?
TIA
TIA
Sep 11, 2010, 1:01 am
#1397
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: SF Bay Area
Programs: Marriott Bonvoy Ambassador, AA EXP
Posts: 2,704
Even with Y as a regular AAdvantage member, you are put in the lowest of the low in upgrade priority. Golds buying deep-discounted O fares have priority over you. I've herd that getting upgraded as a Gold is hard enough. Plus, your flight is in 5 days and many Golds have beat you to request an upgrade. And I never see empty seats in F.
Try to get an exit row. Once you buy those upgrades, you cannot return them. And you must have the stickers in your account.
So what should you do? You are able to request an upgrade without stickers in your account. And if it confirms before it goes to airport control, you can buy the stickers (you need them in order to check in).
However, if it does not clear, don't request to be on the airport upgrade list, as you must have the upgrades in your account by then. And in the likely chance you don't get the upgrade, you will have stickers that you will find great difficulty to use. In this case, save your money.
Try to get an exit row. Once you buy those upgrades, you cannot return them. And you must have the stickers in your account.
So what should you do? You are able to request an upgrade without stickers in your account. And if it confirms before it goes to airport control, you can buy the stickers (you need them in order to check in).
However, if it does not clear, don't request to be on the airport upgrade list, as you must have the upgrades in your account by then. And in the likely chance you don't get the upgrade, you will have stickers that you will find great difficulty to use. In this case, save your money.
Sep 11, 2010, 2:04 am
#1398
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2004
Location: DFW/DAL
Programs: AA Lifetime PLT, AS MVPG, HH Diamond, NCL Platinum Plus, MSC Diamond
Posts: 21,422
Regarding post #2
It is possible to buy upgrades at the gate, isn't it? They cost $5 more, but they can still be purchased. So, it is still possible for the OP to upgrade after the flight goes to airport control.
Also, stickers do not expire, so it is possible they might use them at a later date.
It is possible to buy upgrades at the gate, isn't it? They cost $5 more, but they can still be purchased. So, it is still possible for the OP to upgrade after the flight goes to airport control.
Also, stickers do not expire, so it is possible they might use them at a later date.
Sep 11, 2010, 3:56 am
#1399
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas
Programs: DL Platinum, AA Lifetime Gold, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum, Radisson Premium
Posts: 6,638
As far as I'm aware, at least since I've been flying, non-elites cannot request upgrade at the gate unless they can be placed on the airport standby list (i.e. if they are a companion or booked in full fare Y). I have seen many a pax from time to time attempt to upgrade at the gate and be denied a spot on the list based on fare code/status. Non-elites are not eligible for sticker upgrades unless they book in full fare Y.
If OP indeed booked in full fare Y, upgrade needs to be requested via aa.com and the correct number of e500 stickers must be purchased prior to boarding. OP then needs to request to be added to airport upgrade list if upgrade is not confirmed at time of check-in. If OP did not book in full fare Y, he cannot upgrade through the sticker system.
My advice would be to check in for your flight via the kiosk and you *may* be offered an upgrade for a fee provided that there is space available. Good luck. It's no secret that it is very hard for people who do not have status to upgrade on all airlines nowadays.
If OP indeed booked in full fare Y, upgrade needs to be requested via aa.com and the correct number of e500 stickers must be purchased prior to boarding. OP then needs to request to be added to airport upgrade list if upgrade is not confirmed at time of check-in. If OP did not book in full fare Y, he cannot upgrade through the sticker system.
My advice would be to check in for your flight via the kiosk and you *may* be offered an upgrade for a fee provided that there is space available. Good luck. It's no secret that it is very hard for people who do not have status to upgrade on all airlines nowadays.
Sep 11, 2010, 4:20 am
#1400
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Hotlanta.
Programs: I've gone underground!
Posts: 4,601
OP, before you go down any road make sure that you have a fare basis beginning with "Y" or "B" and not just an economy class ticket.
The easiest way to see if you qualify is via aa.com and manage your reservations. It will tell you if you are eligible.
IME, both the 4:40-ish and 6 pm-ish DCA-MIA flights are usually full in general and F is usually completely booked. I was about 60% on these flights flying on a weekly basis last year as a PLT. They also seem to hold back more seats than usual for last minute sales.
Good luck!
The easiest way to see if you qualify is via aa.com and manage your reservations. It will tell you if you are eligible.
IME, both the 4:40-ish and 6 pm-ish DCA-MIA flights are usually full in general and F is usually completely booked. I was about 60% on these flights flying on a weekly basis last year as a PLT. They also seem to hold back more seats than usual for last minute sales.
Good luck!
Sep 11, 2010, 4:29 am
#1401
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: SJC/VCE
Programs: AA PLT (2.9+ MM), HH GLD, Hyatt Diamond, SPG PLT
Posts: 10,161
One never knows for sure, but I would say the chances are highly, highly unlikely you will be able to upgrade. Apologies for sounding harsh, but if flying in the front is key for this trip, buy a ticket for that cabin.
Sep 11, 2010, 4:33 am
#1402
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: DFW
Programs: AS, BA, AA
Posts: 3,670
It looks like the full Y fares for those flights (Economy Flexible) are $724 and the Instant Upgrade fares are $568.
Get a full refund on your Y fare and purchase an Instant upgrade ticket. You'll be seated in first and will save almost $200. Win-win.
Get a full refund on your Y fare and purchase an Instant upgrade ticket. You'll be seated in first and will save almost $200. Win-win.
Sep 11, 2010, 7:47 am
#1403
Moderator: American AAdvantage
Join Date: May 2000
Location: NorCal - SMF area
Programs: AA LT Plat; HH LT Diamond, Maître-plongeur des Muccis
Posts: 62,948
With no status, and particularly if you are using the term "Y fare" generically (meaning coach, N, O or other discounted coach fare) IMO pretty much your only hopes are 1) buying up to an "instant upgrade" fare, or 2) hoping the kiosk will allow you to buy an upgrade when you check in. (I will say there is not much hope of #2 as you are flying on very busy flights and at times of very high demand.)
DO NOT PURCHASE 500 mile upgrade "stickers" - they are virtually useless if you have no AAdvantage elite status.
Your query has been added to the current active thread inquiring about upgrade chances and availability.
DO NOT PURCHASE 500 mile upgrade "stickers" - they are virtually useless if you have no AAdvantage elite status.
Your query has been added to the current active thread inquiring about upgrade chances and availability.
I do not have any status with American. I will be flying out of DCA to MIA non-stop on 9/16 in the late afternoon and returning MIA to DCA non-stop on 9/17 on the last flight of the day. I have a Y class ticket both ways. I would like to upgrade on both flights, but am trying to figure out the best way to get that done. Should I buy the 500 mile upgrades ahead of time and hope they clear before I get to the airport? If I do that, will I still have the option to upgrade at the airport, if it's available and the 500 mile upgrades I tried to apply did not go through? And, finally, does anyone know what the chances are that I will actually be able to get the upgrade on these flights?
TIA
TIA
Sep 11, 2010, 11:05 am
#1404
In Memoriam
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: Always on vacation
Programs: aa exp - spg gold - Hyatt Diamond - HH Gold
Posts: 6,007
The reality will be either Yes or No, 1 or 0, 100% of 0%. Before the event there is still a probability distribution for the outcome. If it were really always just 0% or 100%, there'd be no point in picking flights with more open seats. The reality is that that does increase the probability since there is a distribution.
Sort of like the actuarial tables for insurance. Each person either will, or will not, die at a specific age (probability 0 or 1 on each day). Still, they base the rates on probability distributions on what's likely to happen. The same is true for upgrades.
Another example is a flipped coin. After it's flipped, the probability of heads is either 0% or 100%. Before it's flipped, it's 50%.
Cheers.
Sort of like the actuarial tables for insurance. Each person either will, or will not, die at a specific age (probability 0 or 1 on each day). Still, they base the rates on probability distributions on what's likely to happen. The same is true for upgrades.
Another example is a flipped coin. After it's flipped, the probability of heads is either 0% or 100%. Before it's flipped, it's 50%.
Cheers.
note to self - do not state anything about math in forum that involves more fingers and toes than I have
Sep 11, 2010, 7:37 pm
#1405
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: SBA
Programs: AA EXP || AA Lifetime Plat closing in on 4MM
Posts: 165
Anyone with recent experience using eVIPs on AA69, MAD-MIA? I haven't flown this route before and EF is showing J7 D7 R7 I7. The flight is less than 3 weeks out. I'm currently in 21B but anywhere in J will be much better, especially after a long night out in Madrid...
Sep 12, 2010, 7:37 pm
#1406
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Maryland
Programs: Hilton Diamond, AA Ex. PLT, Delta Diamond
Posts: 190
Need some help, not asking for proprietary information but some help. I am flying from BWI -->DFW --> FRA (11 Sept, Economy Fare Class Y) and FRA --> DFW --> BWI (25 Sep, Economy Fare Class B). My current status is GOLD 
On the way out I was upgraded from BWI to DFW. However, from DFW to FRA I was 1st on the airport wait-list and did NOT receive the upgrade. I assumed it was because my current status is GOLD and because I am flying on a popular day. I am learning my lesson and I signed up for the PLAT challenge. So this trip will give me PLAT status for the future. Couple of question for everyone.
What are the odds of getting the upgrade on the 25 Sept?
What is the best day of the week to fly the Germany Route (future purposed) if I am looking to upgrade, I assume Tuesdays and Wednesdays but I am not sure?
On the way out I was upgraded from BWI to DFW. However, from DFW to FRA I was 1st on the airport wait-list and did NOT receive the upgrade. I assumed it was because my current status is GOLD and because I am flying on a popular day. I am learning my lesson and I signed up for the PLAT challenge. So this trip will give me PLAT status for the future. Couple of question for everyone.
What are the odds of getting the upgrade on the 25 Sept?
What is the best day of the week to fly the Germany Route (future purposed) if I am looking to upgrade, I assume Tuesdays and Wednesdays but I am not sure?
Sep 17, 2010, 3:40 pm
#1407
Join Date: Aug 2006
Programs: AA Lifetime Platinum
Posts: 169
I have platinum status, and am waitlisted for 2 upgrades AA156 on Oct 13, BOS-LHR; and 2 on Oct 23, AA125, LHR-BOS using EVIPS. How soon do these things clear? This is my first attempt to use them. :-)
Sep 21, 2010, 9:01 am
#1408
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Central NJ (EWR)
Programs: Amtrak Select Plus, HH Diamond, Hyatt Diamond, UA Prem. Ex., AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 82
Upgrade odds to Biz JFK-LAX flights?
Hello everyone,
I was curious to see the odds of upgrading from Economy to Business on JFK-LAX flights and return? Is one flight easier to upgrade than the other? I have flown on AA1 quite a few times and being a Gold, it is next to impossible to upgrade. My plan is as follows:
12/11/10 (Sat) AA133 JFK-LAX
12/14/10 (Tues) AA32 LAX-JFK
Are there other flights I should be looking at to increase my odds of upgrade?
Tried searching for this to no avail. Thank you in advance for any help.
Tom
AAdvantage Gold
I was curious to see the odds of upgrading from Economy to Business on JFK-LAX flights and return? Is one flight easier to upgrade than the other? I have flown on AA1 quite a few times and being a Gold, it is next to impossible to upgrade. My plan is as follows:
12/11/10 (Sat) AA133 JFK-LAX
12/14/10 (Tues) AA32 LAX-JFK
Are there other flights I should be looking at to increase my odds of upgrade?
Tried searching for this to no avail. Thank you in advance for any help.
Tom
AAdvantage Gold
Sep 21, 2010, 9:06 am
#1409
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Feb 2001
Location: RDU <|> MMX
Programs: AA EXP 2MM, SK EBS
Posts: 12,458
Sep 21, 2010, 9:38 am
#1410
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: SJC
Programs: AA EXP, BA Silver, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 33,533
Anyway, it's in the right thread now, so someone should be able to estimate your odds.
Cheers.