Why don't EXP upgrades come at 100 hrs
 

I am flying to LGA fro ORD on Wednesday this week. It is now 61 hours prior to me outbound and 91 hours to my return. Both flights have only 3 of 16 seats sold according to EXP desk.
This seems to happen all of the time lately. I am sure he program has not changed but has the policy.
In a seach I see this has been addressed but no fact based answers. has there been an unwritten policy change??

Yes, nowadays AA is holding back more seats in premium cabins instead of always releasing them right at 100 hours. LGA-ORD is enough of a high-yield route that AA might expect to sell a number of those seats before releasing the rest (still probably a majority) for upgrades.

Just be patient. You'll still clear before PLTs and GLDs.

I'm on 705: lga-dfw(dep: 700) 5/26/08 it is still showing f7 a3(expert fllyer) and my upg has not yet cleared(now almost 12 hours before takeoff.) Though my connecting flights dfw-las (and the return via ord) have cleared at the 100 hr marks. From "empirical" evidence, I think aa uses historical data to mete out upg's. A "liesure" route were people rarely purchase f gets upgraded early; if they think they can sell seats they will wait.
[lga ord and lga dfw have more "business types" flying these so they make you wait until the last minute...]

Exactly right. If there is one thing that AA is very good at, it is revenue/yield management. The system is very sophisticated and knows exactly when to release upgrade inventory once the potential for full-fare sales of all available premium seats is statistically gone (based on historical data of that particular flight's performance).

If you really care that much about getting the upgrade early, use miles or an eVIP--especially if you are connecting to international.

I have not cleared more than 48 hours out in over a year. That does seem to be a popular threshold for me. What I truly miss are the days I used to fly Delta and could confirm my upgrade on booking. Yep. Those were the gold old days.

I have found that most of my EXP domestic upgrades are clearing at 72 +/- hours or at 48 +/- hours. YMMV.

As Espen36 says, AA uses very advanced (and very proprietary) software to "predict" how many seats to release into which inventories - based on predictive analytics. Anecdotal evidence from FT members would indicate upgrades not secured when (if) the initial inventory is available may come much closer to departure than previously.

jefferyt, are you not using tools like ExpertFlyer to search for the proper booking inventory and positively booking your upgrades? Is it that you buy last minute, after initial upgrade inventory offerings or ?

I'm enjoyinng a few days in HNL over the Memorial weekend. Upgrade cleared 100 hours for both outbound May 22 and return May 26 LAX-HNL-LAX for self & companion! F cabin had only a few seats left for sale both flgihts before clearing so perhaps this lends credence to the statement above. BTW, I'm posting a separate thread about the surprisingly excellent F product LAX-HNL, which see :D

My flights routinely clear at the 100 hour mark or close to it.

My experience this year has been upgrades clearing closer to departure...with 46 departures up to now, probably 1/3 at 100 hr mark, 1/2 around 48 hrs and the remainder up to point of departure. Only two failures.

It would seem to me from a rev management standpoint when losing money that you would want to slow down upgrading since once granted that potential incremental income is missed

I do use expertflyer but I don't book - surprise - flights based on ability to book positive upgrades. Indeed, I book my flights about 2 weeks out, hence my inability sometimes to even secure upgrades as an EXP. But I don't book Y or B fares, except for once this year when I booked just 48 hours in advance. However, those flights I lucked out because I cleared same day (before I got to the airport).

FYI- ORD-SFO(5-23)cleared upgrade at 100 hours.
SFO-ORD(5-26)cleared upgrade at 48 hours.
The system is good to me.:)

As an EXP who buys a lot of tickets less than a day before flying, I am grateful for the late clearing; it makes it far easier for me to get the upgrade ahead of PLTs and GLDs who would otherwise clear ahead of me. Personally I don't understand why they don't clear all upgrades a few hours before the flight. Earlier clearing might help some people sleep a little better, but provides no real benefit as long as the upgrades are ultimately cleared in the same priority order.

How many F seats are sold on earlier and later flights that day? Someone paying a full fare is paying both for cabin comfort and flexibility. They should be able to get on an earlier flight if they show up early at the airport and they should be able to call shortly before departure and rebook to a later flight; and they should not have to be stuck in a middle seat in the back while someone on a cheap fare is enjoying a free upgrade. As much as I myself enjoy getting upgraded when paying for coach, I certainly appreciate a restrictive policy for early upgrade clearing the times I travel in paid F. I think AA has got it right. If you absolutely want a confirmed seat in F you need to either pay for it or use miles to upgrade.

When I flew on dl and was only a silver (equivalent to aa's gold) all "elites" got complimentary upgrades (when available)--even though I was at the bottom of the heap, most of my requested upgrades cleared.