WRCSolberg

So CO will be effectively ignoring the western half of the US? Yeah, that sounds like a great business plan. CO would not be able to float a route using that strategy. And you're simply dreaming if you think CO would start a EWR/IAH-SYD route tommorrow assuming they had 787s.

Go check the O&D stats for LAX-SYD, I think you'll find there's a reason why *ALL* US mainland routes to OZ involve LAX or SFO.

fly4food84

I can't seem to keep up with all the mergers and bankruptcies going on this year.

ctownflyer

1. CO's current business plan does ignore western US. There are exactly zero CO flights between any 2 cities west of IAH. Take notice how there are also zero flights from LAX on CO to any other country as well. (But don't worry I'm sure OZ will be the first!)

2. CO said at last year's official flyertalk DO that they do plan to fly IAH-SYD at some point after the 787 comes online, so who's the dreamer here.

3. The reason all US routes to OZ are from the west coast is simply because there are no current aircraft that can make it from any other part of the US to OZ profitably. The 787 will change that. There is absolutely no logical reason why every OZ flight will always have to depart from either LAX or SFO.

worldwidedreamer

I agree with your sentiment, but it is factually inaccurate. CO flies from LAX-HNL along with seasonal service to four cities in Mexico. CO also flies SEA-ANC. If CO did increase transpacific service from LAX, I suspect that the first route would be to connect its hub in Guam with the US mainland.

WRCSolberg

#1. There are plenty of airlines that operate one offs out of LAX. Air France just started an LAX-LHR flight for example. It's not as implausible as you'd like to believe. And again, the meaning of O&D obviously escaped you - in that case connecting traffic to LAX is irrelevant. Though I do think there's still enough of that for CO anyway.

#2. Talk is cheap and BS walks, I'll believe it when I see it. Assuming CO doesn't get into OW or otherwise engage in an alliance with QF, an OZ route would be suicide without feed on the OZ end. The country has 20 million people in it, so where is CO going to find the patronage? Skyteam is non-existant in OZ. DL has the same problem.

#3. And yet QF claims they can't make any tag-on flights profitable besides NYC - and it's widely known that it's the cargo that carries the JFK tag-ons, not the pax. So I have a hard time believing a non-west coast flight will be successful. Especially on a smaller plane for a longer distance. But that doesn't prevent them from trying. If it were as easy you think it is, QF would be flying tag ons to ORD, DFW, BOS, MIA, etc. But no, they don't do that do they? No, between four and six big 744s spend 14 hours on the ground at LAX because there's no market to those cities. So is CO just going to manufacture this demand? No, I don't think so.

ctownflyer

I should've been more clear, I was referring to the amount intra-US48 flights west of IAH.

bbkenney

Are you referring to the same AA product that uses DFW Airport and has all the shiny (on the OUTside) silver airplanes?

giggy

Co's decision to pass on UA's dressed up PIG WITH LIPSTICK was smart. If they stay "smart" they would join Oneworld and team up with an alliance with BA and AA. They should also get rid of BizFirst (a skyteam product) and go to 3Class configurations. Also make Plat Status 100k eqms to keep things fair with their partners FF programs. At first their Plats will grumble, but with time they will realize that there's (finally) a lot more UGs to Biz to be had. Win win and they fit better within Oneworld. Also If AA was smart, they would outright buy Alaska Airlines. NW uses Alaska with codeshares the same way AA does. After they buy them, they should tell NW/DL to piss off on the west coast. Use all the Alaska west coast gates for more Asian routes, and make Seattle a west coast HUB

MIA-SAT

The adjustment to AA qualification standards would be more difficult for CO elites than the mere 75K vs 100K, Plat vs EXP standard. Due to the fact that CO grants double segment credit on H, K, Y and all first class fares, a CO flyer can achieve Plat with 12 roundtrips from say AUS-MSY in any of these fares, with a cost of between 200 and 300 per trip. Each of these trips, with a connection in IAH is worth 8 qualifying segments toward the 90 qualifying segments needed for Plat qualification. On AA even in any first class fare, the same flyer would have only 48 segments, still remaining as an AA gold or 36,000 EQP's or 24,000 EQM's. It is far more difficult to obtain highest level elite status on AA than on CO. To the extent that any airline really takes into account the opinions of its frequent flyers when making these decisions to align its program with another carrier, CO would have to anticipate that some of its plats would be screaming if CO adopted AA's qualification standards.

adzel

This is very ironic, since way back when (60s and 70s), CO was a western-only airline! There were essentially no routes east of Chicago.

martin33

and those screams would be worth precisely zero-- where would such screamers go, commuting from AUS-MSY via IAH? to DL/NW or US/UA? fat chance. to WN perhaps via HOU, but buh-bye anything elite beyond a buddypass in that event.

screwing over people who have other viable choices, now that would be harder.

bernardd

I find it hard to believe any airline executive sets out to deliberately screw over anyone. We could debate for ever why they got themselves into this mess, but the fact remains they're losing money like crazy. Can you see any more fat they can trim? Without that, you have to get used to the fact that prices are going to go up and benefits are going to go down, and hopefully they'll find a new equilibrium where they can return a profit to their stockholders AND afford the new fleet we all want to see.

martin33

I don't disagree. The point was that the group identified as being potentially most adversely affected by aligning CO to oneworld (segment PLT qualifiers on CO who pay relatively low "full" fares on trips like AUS-MSY and thus getting top level in 45 segments) is a group without much chance of their concerns being heard with much weight. Groups with viable alternatives, on the other hand, would have more leverage.

giggy

I wasnt thinking about segments. Using miles it wouldnt be that much harder to go from 75k to 100k. Heck with the adder program, I just went from zero to EXP in three trips

miamigrad

Time for AA to focus on antitrust immunity with BA, IMO, now that CO announced its intention to join Star Alliance.

I'm very disappointed with today's announcement from Continental