Impact of UA merger on AA?
The merger rumors have been kicking around for a long time, but now UA has hired Goldman Sachs to help it look for airlines to merge with. (See
http://www.forbes.com/2006/09/25/ual...markets10.html for the latest). And Tilton has made repeated comments lately that he'd be very open to mering. If UA merges with an airline with a lot of European destinations, it would seem that UA will have a significant leg up on AA in international flying, since UA is already much stronger in Asia. OTOH you could perhaps argue that a merger would lead to further reduced capacity which will be a net win for all remaining airlines, since they will then raise prices. Any thoughts? |
The impact is going to be highly variable, depending on merger partner.
So let's start with that question: with whom would they merge? There aren't a lot of choices: 1. Northwest Fleet compatibility problems, labor problems, hubs that essentially overlap (Minneapolis and Chicago?), also financially struggling. 2. Delta Slightly better but still not great. 3. Continental Why would Continental be interested? They're doing just fine. 4. AA Uh, no. 5. Southwest Come on. 6. Midwest Airlines Would it matter? 7. Frontier Anti-trust problems. 8. Alaska Fleet problems, but not totally crazy. 9. The New U.S. Airways Would it then become the New New U.S. Airways? They just merged, so maybe they could just do another one. |
Originally Posted by sipples
9. The New U.S. Airways
Would it then become the New New U.S. Airways? They just merged, so maybe they could just do another one. |
Originally Posted by justageek
Any thoughts? I dont know about the business side, but I predict a 1000% increase in airliners.net-type posts of speculation or conjecture on FT. |
Originally Posted by justageek
Any thoughts?
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Originally Posted by inlanikai
If there is a merger, it will be with Delta.
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Originally Posted by DataPlumber
I dont know about the business side, but I predict a 1000% increase in airliners.net-type posts of speculation or conjecture on FT.
|
Originally Posted by DataPlumber
I dont know about the business side, but I predict a 1000% increase in airliners.net-type posts of speculation or conjecture on FT.
|
Wow, let the speculation... er, it has made a huge start! But it's hard to imagine whose route structure would be really appealing and add revenue. I think CO would, for one, be resistive. NW would be somewhat duplicative to say the least, and come with some problems - unless they could be stripped out on merging. I dunno... I'll watch this thread, that's for sure, because I can't imagine a good match myself, even though UA is up for a wedding.
Looking for LUV in all the wrong places... |
AA? I don't think so.
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Maybe UA will pull a DL and merge with Ted.... I'm sure many of our UAers would be thrilled (or, not... because those 747s will have a yellow tulip :D)
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Maybe they will merge with an overseas carrier :confused:
Maybe they will get Air Canada??? :D |
Well by hiring Goldman they are essentially putting the For Sale Sign up. There are several assets that other airlines covet but don't have the money for. DL, NW, and CO would all love the access to LHR. AA, DL, and CO would love the Asia Pacific routes, and of those, AA and CO are the only ones who could afford those. CO would be the most likely candidate but they have not expressed a real interest. Plus why would they want to dilute their product. Love them or hate them, CO seems to alway be up or at the top of all the satisfaction surveys. In the short run if CO and UA merged it would benefit AA because of hiccups that would occur during the process of melding the two companies.
Just my two cents. |
Originally Posted by chsb
Well by hiring Goldman they are essentially putting the For Sale Sign up. There are several assets that other airlines covet but don't have the money for. DL, NW, and CO would all love the access to LHR. AA, DL, and CO would love the Asia Pacific routes, and of those, AA and CO are the only ones who could afford those. CO would be the most likely candidate but they have not expressed a real interest. Plus why would they want to dilute their product. Love them or hate them, CO seems to alway be up or at the top of all the satisfaction surveys. In the short run if CO and UA merged it would benefit AA because of hiccups that would occur during the process of melding the two companies.
Just my two cents. |
All's I can say is that I sure would hate to be the guy in charge of putting together United and anybody else.
Maintenance programs, flight ops programs, IT systems.... EEEEEEK! If this UA merger with whoever happens, which is questionable, but certainly possible, AA might benefit from all the problems that the 2 merging airlines would have putting themselves together. If (a big if) we were ever looking at a situation where an airline were being "parted out" I would think that AA would be in a very good position to acquire a piece of an airline...especially the Pacific routes of either NW or UA. |
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