Chance of Easter Sunday cancellations due to load factors?

 
Old Apr 10, 06, 3:33 pm
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Chance of Easter Sunday cancellations due to load factors?

I was just looking at EF, as I have the return portion of my BOS-MSN-BOS on that day. At least for the ORD-BOS part, I am seeing 7s across the board (except for P inventory). So I have to wonder, what are the chances there will be a bunch of cancellations that day, due to light loads, when they realize they can just put everyone on fewer flights? From a historical perspective, do major holidays often lead to this? Or will the fact that the Boston Marathon is on Monday mean they will want all the capacity they can have into BOS?
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Old Apr 10, 06, 3:38 pm
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AA does not officially cancel flights for light loads - I've got personal experience of that.

If AA is going to fly a reduced schedule on a holiday, the schedule reduction would have been posted a long time ago. As a golbal airline - they live and die by detailed planning.

Having said that, you never know when a mustery mx problem will occur, but I doubt it will in this case.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 3:42 pm
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Originally Posted by HNL
Having said that, you never know when a mustery mx problem will occur, but I doubt it will in this case.

I was assuming that was what they would call it. I've heard of this happening, there will be about a dozen people at the gate, and, all of a sudden, the plane will go tech. I was wondering when such a decision would be made, mostly, to cancel those flights, so I could know my options if/when it did happen.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 3:50 pm
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Originally Posted by Fly AA J all the way
I was assuming that was what they would call it. I've heard of this happening, there will be about a dozen people at the gate, and, all of a sudden, the plane will go tech. I was wondering when such a decision would be made, mostly, to cancel those flights, so I could know my options if/when it did happen.
I think you are wringing you hands too much. The flight is 6 days out.

Think of it this way...
1. You'll have a good chance to get a UG (as a mere gold no less)
2. You will have room to spread out
3. Boarding will be faster
4. Disembarking will be faster
5. Everyone (pax and FAs) will be happier
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Old Apr 10, 06, 3:52 pm
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Originally Posted by HNL
I think you are wringing you hands too much. The flight is 6 days out.

Think of it this way...
1. You'll have a good chance to get a UG (as a mere gold no less)
2. You will have room to spread out
3. Boarding will be faster
4. Disembarking will be faster
5. Everyone (pax and FAs) will be happier

Don't get me wrong, I wish all my flights were like this (with every other AA flight of the day sold out, of course ). This last min mechanical actually happened to my uncle less than a month ago (though I think it was UA), which is why I was thinking about it.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 3:57 pm
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Those flights you mentioned are running just over half full. It would cost them more money to cancel a flight, displace a crew, deadhead crews, and then ferry airplanes all because of light loads.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 6:16 pm
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I know that none of you really "know" me. Although some will after the DFW DO! But I think I come across as fairly reasonable guy who bases his opinions on the facts as he knows them. So I have to say that the "you cancelled the flight because it didn't have any people on it" theory was one of those things that always floored me when I frequently heard it as an airline manager and line employee, and even now as an airline customer. I know that some of the other patently odd business practices of airlines have led to this suspicion, so I never let it bother me when I had to deal with suspicious customers as airline employee and I don't let it bother me now when I hear it from time to time.

But please let me say that in my 10 year, 3 month and 1 week career at American Airlines and American Eagle, I am not aware of ANY flight that was ever cancelled because of low load factor. I've shut the door on one too many empty or near empty airplanes to think that this is a practice that takes place at AA. It doesn't. If loads are anticipated to be low in advance of a holiday or some other special circumstance (9/11/02 comes to mind), schedules are adjusted in advance.

As AEPilot76 aptly stated, it would cost the airline more to displace and deadhead crews, ferry empty planes, etc., etc. than they'd save if this were practiced by an airline.

I now descend from my soapbox.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 6:50 pm
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NOT that you're counting, right?

As a mere passenger with over fifty years of flying - I can say that I have never seen a flight cancellation for light loads on a holiday IN THE USA or by a U S airline.

Originally Posted by flyastrojets
...But please let me say that in my 10 year, 3 month and 1 week career at American Airlines and American Eagle, I am not aware of ANY flight that was ever cancelled because of low load factor. ...
I now descend from my soapbox.
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Old Apr 10, 06, 7:13 pm
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I know this is a little off topic, but.....

A number of years back, probably around the late 1990s/early 2000s, I flew a SEA-DTW flight a number of times on NW. I always thought it interesting that they had two flights that departed within 10 minutes of each other. One was a DC10, the other a 757. I probably flew one of those flights about 5-6 times, and I can't remember once that both of them actually flew. One of the two flights was always cancelled and I think it was usually the DC10 flight. That was the one I usually would be on and then get moved over to the 757 flight.

I always wondered about the "scheduling" of both of those flights. I finally just assumed they listed both and if enough passengers were flying, they would use the DC10, if not, they flew the 757.

So I don't know if this would be a case of cancelling a flight due to load or not.
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