Goal Deviation: A Key Metric in Measuring EXP Progress
 

Abstract

Executive Platinum (EXP) status is desired by many frequent flyers. This paper will outline a metric, 'goal deviation', which can be used to assess and measure progress toward EXP status on a continual basis.

Body

Let P be the daily progress constant. We shall define P as 100,000 [1] divided by the number of days in a year (365). We can define our metric as follows. For any current number of miles M and a date D, the 'goal deviation' G is:

GD(D) = M - (P * E(D))

where E(D) is the number of days elapsed since the beginning of the year [2].

GD(D) reflects the number of miles needed to be "on track" with one's goal of meeting EXP status at the end of the year. When GD(D) is negative for a value of D, one must "catch up." If the value of GD(D) is positive, one has a "cushion" which indicates that one is above goal at that point in time.

Future Work

We have made a grant request to pursue the implementation of this formula as an Excel Macro. Our patent on this formula is pending. Interested parties should contact the authors for royalty terms.

References
[1] Russell and Whitehead, Principia Mathematica
[2] The Sumerian Calendar

While you're at it, could you figure out how to construct a wormhole that will accommodate an MD-80 and that will allow one to travel 100,000 miles instantaneously without having to transit Dallas? I'm sure there must be some experts in the field of quantum teleportation out there in FT land.

You mean bring about World Peace?

You're confusing the posters - this one specializes in whirled peas. ;)

You forgot to list all of the co-authors!

http://www.improbable.com/airchives/..._rotation.html

Implemented!
 

Even better than an Excel macro, I think, is a web script. Nothing to download, nothing to install, no security risks.

So I implemented whirledtraveler's idea in a quick script.

Frequent Flier Goal Deviation Calculator

Comments welcome. Bug submissions are particularly helpful. (Email, via link on my page, may be more useful than numerous posts here.) I'm also happy to add more calculations -- just tell me what you'd like.

That was quick!
 

Wow, thanks for the site!

By "Year-to-date flights" you actually mean "year-to-date miles", right??

You might want to change the text to year-to-day "miles" instead of "flights."

Good point. Thanks. Fixed.

i use a different method....

1 look at aadvantage summary on aa.com

2 determine the ytd mi/pt/segs

3 subtract from required minimums

4 figure out where to go, get ticket, fly, repeat

note, no calculator or differential equations needed.

happy new year

Thanks! I've coded it in Excel also. The true value of the formula is when you use it to project forward. For instance, I have three international flights lined up for this year and a few domestics that I've planned in advance. When I put all of the flights that I'm aware of in the spreadsheet, I see that the last time that G(D) goes positive is in April. My first flight is Friday, and I'll be in negative territory until the return flight the next day. Then I go further into positive terrority with a transcon I'm taking next week.

As the year goes on, I'll schedule more and more trips. I'll add them and be able to see just how far ahead (or behind) I am as time goes on.

My G(D) values look like this so far for the upcoming year:

0.00
-172.86
750.16
2818.19
3790.33
3118.63
4638.71
-5105.05
-3615.95
-1656.70
1946.38
617.96
4221.04
-6532.42
-3313.29
-10305.44
-10448.27
-30998.95
-29357.84

This formula is for miles, correct. It doesn't seem to reflect the new 100 segment method.

You can use my site to track your progress vis-a-vis the 100 segment qualification. Choose 100,000 as your end-of-year goal. Then, in the box labeled "Year-to-date miles", enter your year-to-date segments times 1000. So if you've flown seven segments year-to-date, enter 7000.

In the resulting analysis, replace "miles" with segments, and divide all numbers by 1000. So if the program reports "you are 2,254 miles ahead of your goal", that means "you are 2.25 segments ahead of your goal."

That should address your needs in the short run. If demand warrants, I can revise the system to include a more intuitive segment analysis.