ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
#46
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: PIT
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What about EU destinations? Do you think we'll lose any from this? I go to FRA and CDG regularly enough that I'm wondering what my connection route from PIT will be.
#47
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2000
Location: RDU
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CLT has flights to Rome, Paris, Frankfurt, and London. Of those, I could see Frankfurt get dropped depending on how much feed was connecting to LHR, and a connection to Air Berlin (DUS? or TXL) or Iberia (MAD) start up.
#48
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: BOS
Programs: Marriott LTG, HHonors Diamond, Nat'l Exec
Posts: 3,580
I'm curious about what DCA will end up looking like in the post-merger world. They'll have to give up some frequencies as part of the settlement, but DCA makes a pretty interesting focus city. There's a lot of CR2 nonsense, but there is also a fair amount of E170/175 traffic (Hartford, Manchester, Jacksonville, Nashville, Greensboro, and Minneapolis from just a quick scan).
My immediate selfish hope is that the CR7s on ORD-DCA get replaced by 175s.
My immediate selfish hope is that the CR7s on ORD-DCA get replaced by 175s.
ATL, ORD, DFW, JFK, CLT, IAH, MIA, MCO, EWR, MSP, DTW, PHL, BOS, LGA, FLL, MDW, TPA
What that means is that AA can't use anything smaller than a CR9 or E175 to fly from DCA to those cities. So ORD will definitely upsize to at least an E175; it has to.
On the US side, that seems to affect service to PHL (which is mostly CRJ or DH8 due to lack of real demand), DTW, and a single frequency to CLT will need to upgauge or be cut. For AA, it affects all their flights to JFK and a handful of ORD flights.
#49
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,945
I absolutely agree that CLT is not going anywhere. CLT, MIA, and DFW are extremely valuable fortress hubs.
That said, I disagree about its infrastructure. I book a lot of people into and out of the southeast, typically connecting between regional and mainline, and for that, CLT is by far the LEAST favorite airport. At least with big airports like DFW, you have a tram that can rapidly get you from one side of the airport to the other.
That said, I disagree about its infrastructure. I book a lot of people into and out of the southeast, typically connecting between regional and mainline, and for that, CLT is by far the LEAST favorite airport. At least with big airports like DFW, you have a tram that can rapidly get you from one side of the airport to the other.
If you want to talk about a bad connection from regional to mainline, PHL is my least favorite of the US hubs. There's no airside walk from F to anywhere else, and all CRJs land in F. My only "trick" here has been to make sure I'm on an ERJ of some sort so that I land in B/C. There's a shuttle bus, but who wants to ride that?
Anyway, having talked with a lot of people in the industry (including a former exec, although this was before the DCA divertisure announcements), here are my thoughts on hubs.
Safe:
DFW/CLT/MIA - These hubs are absolutely safe, and will likely see growth. They may lose some routes to other hubs as rationalization happens, but they'll remain the crown jewels.
ORD - This is the only real midwest hub, and again, may lose some routes, but will remain a hub.
LAX - Unfortunately, this is a hard one to grow, but it's such a valuable premium market and so much INTL connecting traffic is done here. All those partners will not move to PHX, so this operation will remain.
Goodbye:
PHX - Sandwiched between DFW and LAX which aren't going anywhere? Will become a small focus city, at best.
Too close to call:
DCA/LGA/JFK/PHL - One of the NY hubs will absolutely remain for INTL connecting traffic, but at least one hub is going to close here.
Safe:
DFW/CLT/MIA - These hubs are absolutely safe, and will likely see growth. They may lose some routes to other hubs as rationalization happens, but they'll remain the crown jewels.
ORD - This is the only real midwest hub, and again, may lose some routes, but will remain a hub.
LAX - Unfortunately, this is a hard one to grow, but it's such a valuable premium market and so much INTL connecting traffic is done here. All those partners will not move to PHX, so this operation will remain.
Goodbye:
PHX - Sandwiched between DFW and LAX which aren't going anywhere? Will become a small focus city, at best.
Too close to call:
DCA/LGA/JFK/PHL - One of the NY hubs will absolutely remain for INTL connecting traffic, but at least one hub is going to close here.
If anything shrinks, it's rationalizing LGA/JFK - concentrate on O&D and INTL, and leave the domestic east to PHL/CLT. In addition, focus regional traffic at PHX and move INTL to LAX/DFW.
I see a lot of shifting of traffic, but I honestly don't think any of the current 8 gets de-hubbed. The way I see it, de-hubbing any of the current "at risk" hubs from your list requires shifting significant traffic to airports that can't support it. You can't shift PHL's hub ops anywhere else in the Northeast unless you want to rebuild BOS (and geographically, PHL is a better bet). PHX can't go to LAX for lack of space, and shifting it all to DFW makes for some long connections. DCA has a huge geographic advantage and a very captive market - shifting that anywhere else means losing your business to whoever takes over at DCA. I could see shrinking LGA or JFK to focus on INTL and O&D, but that other traffic has to go to PHL.
#50
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Join Date: May 2000
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One complication with DCA is that in addition to giving up slots, AA agreed not to use any of their "commuter" slots (which are for planes of <76 seats) for what DOT defines as large airports. Excluding airports in metro DC and beyond the DCA perimeter, those airports are:
ATL, ORD, DFW, JFK, CLT, IAH, MIA, MCO, EWR, MSP, DTW, PHL, BOS, LGA, FLL, MDW, TPA
What that means is that AA can't use anything smaller than a CR9 or E175 to fly from DCA to those cities. So ORD will definitely upsize to at least an E175; it has to.
On the US side, that seems to affect service to PHL (which is mostly CRJ or DH8 due to lack of real demand), DTW, and a single frequency to CLT will need to upgauge or be cut. For AA, it affects all their flights to JFK and a handful of ORD flights.
ATL, ORD, DFW, JFK, CLT, IAH, MIA, MCO, EWR, MSP, DTW, PHL, BOS, LGA, FLL, MDW, TPA
What that means is that AA can't use anything smaller than a CR9 or E175 to fly from DCA to those cities. So ORD will definitely upsize to at least an E175; it has to.
On the US side, that seems to affect service to PHL (which is mostly CRJ or DH8 due to lack of real demand), DTW, and a single frequency to CLT will need to upgauge or be cut. For AA, it affects all their flights to JFK and a handful of ORD flights.
#51
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Join Date: May 2000
Location: RDU
Programs: AA LT Gold, DL SM, HY Disc, Marriott LT Gold
Posts: 12,502
Given that Southwest, with no widebody feed and no commuter feed, can operate hubs at PHX, LAS, DEN, HOU, MDW, BWI, and ATL, and significant focus cities at MCI, STL, BNA, and MCO... I have trouble believing that it is structurally impossible for AAUS to maintain six hubs (DFW, ORD, LAX, PHX, CLT, PHL) and two focus cities (NYC, DCA).
#52
Suspended
Join Date: Sep 2006
Programs: AAdvantage PP
Posts: 13,913
DCA and LGA are important domestic stations, maybe not hubs per se. Both stations attract a premium business flyer albeit for domestic travel. This is what has kept the Shuttle around as an almost hourly flight despite often lousy load factors.
JFK will be mostly an O&D International hub along with of course transcons while PHL will stay a connecting TATL hub. Although its hard to say whether in the long run how much PHL is downsized, if at all.
CLT will remain a strong domestic hub but could lose some flights to MIA. MIA will keep growing as will DFW and LAX. ORD won't lose hub status but probably won't see huge growth numbers.
PHX will be probably lose if LAX grows even more than already planned.
JFK will be mostly an O&D International hub along with of course transcons while PHL will stay a connecting TATL hub. Although its hard to say whether in the long run how much PHL is downsized, if at all.
CLT will remain a strong domestic hub but could lose some flights to MIA. MIA will keep growing as will DFW and LAX. ORD won't lose hub status but probably won't see huge growth numbers.
PHX will be probably lose if LAX grows even more than already planned.
#53
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London, England
Programs: UA 1K, Hilton Diamond, IHG Diamond Ambassador, National Exec, AA EXP Emeritus
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Fair questions. I used this page on Wikipedia, which reports Miami's 2012 "total passenger boardings" as 30,227,003 and Charlotte's as 20,032,426. By these numbers, MIA has about 50% more "total passenger boardings" than CLT. However, I just scrolled down and the two airports are much more in line when measured by "total passenger traffic". I haven't got time to dig into the source material (almost bedtime!) and figure out the difference in terminology or raw data, but the numbers are wildly different so there may be something fishy with these numbers... In any case, that's where I came up with it.
#54
Join Date: Oct 2012
Programs: AA: EXP/5.2mm
Posts: 251
What about BOS? I would love to see new AA ramp back up at BOS to their levels of several years ago, taking back the share they have ceded to B6.
#55
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: BOS
Programs: Marriott LTG, HHonors Diamond, Nat'l Exec
Posts: 3,580
I think that means a lot of CR7/E170 to RDU and BNA.
#56
Join Date: Apr 2004
Location: BOS
Programs: Marriott LTG, HHonors Diamond, Nat'l Exec
Posts: 3,580
Fair questions. I used this page on Wikipedia, which reports Miami's 2012 "total passenger boardings" as 30,227,003 and Charlotte's as 20,032,426. By these numbers, MIA has about 50% more "total passenger boardings" than CLT. However, I just scrolled down and the two airports are much more in line when measured by "total passenger traffic". I haven't got time to dig into the source material (almost bedtime!) and figure out the difference in terminology or raw data, but the numbers are wildly different so there may be something fishy with these numbers... In any case, that's where I came up with it.
In any case, the table refers to this document as a source, which puts 2012 MIA enplanements at 18,987,488.
#57
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
It has LHR, FRA, CDG, MAD, FCO, BCN, BRU, LIS, MAN and DUB.
The first four are safe. The rest? Buh-bye.
#58
Join Date: Jun 2011
Posts: 3,522
The airports that I connect through are EWR, ORD, IAH, IAD, and CLT. CLT is a piece of cake in comparison. It is a bit of a hike between mainline to regional. I was at IAD last night, it takes forever to walk to the train to get to mainline. ORD still uses buses if you are going from Express to Terminal C, otherwise a much longer walk than CLT. And EWR forget it. CLT feels a lot less crazy.
But often people have to get late connections, and frequently it seems like they get stuck in CLT for the night due to misconnects too, so there's also that.
Remember this is a company, not a non-profit. They're not going to keep open hubs they don't need out of the goodness of their hearts.
I most certainly did not. In fact, I pointed out CLT as being one of the most valuable and safe hubs. I suggest you re-read my post.
#59
Join Date: May 2004
Location: DCA ZWU
Programs: AGR WOH
Posts: 1,785
DL has set up parallel hubs at JFK (international) and LGA (domestic), so I don't see why AA couldn't also run a JFK international + PHL domestic.
An air carrier ("mainline") slot can be operated with a 70-seat plane, a commuter slot can only be operated with a <76-seat plane.
New AA will have:
246 total slots
172 "air carrier": mainline/RJ to any airport, including 6 beyond-perimeter
74 "commuter": RJs to small (min 56 slots) or medium (max 18) airports
(I wrote a bit more about this over at the DC forum.)
US has had a while to sort through their DCA operations to make each route profitable -- but at their current cost structure. Who knows what'll happen once costs rise post-merger.
Same for us DCA and PHL hub-captives! US East's short hops have very high CPM, so the ability to cap those ticket prices at 4500 Avios will be a boon to east-coast travelers.
One complication with DCA is that in addition to giving up slots, AA agreed not to use any of their "commuter" slots (which are for planes of <76 seats) for what DOT defines as large airports...
What that means is that AA can't use anything smaller than a CR9 or E175 to fly from DCA to those cities. So ORD will definitely upsize to at least an E175; it has to.
What that means is that AA can't use anything smaller than a CR9 or E175 to fly from DCA to those cities. So ORD will definitely upsize to at least an E175; it has to.
New AA will have:
246 total slots
172 "air carrier": mainline/RJ to any airport, including 6 beyond-perimeter
74 "commuter": RJs to small (min 56 slots) or medium (max 18) airports
(I wrote a bit more about this over at the DC forum.)
US has had a while to sort through their DCA operations to make each route profitable -- but at their current cost structure. Who knows what'll happen once costs rise post-merger.
Same for us DCA and PHL hub-captives! US East's short hops have very high CPM, so the ability to cap those ticket prices at 4500 Avios will be a boon to east-coast travelers.
Last edited by paytonc; Dec 10, 2013 at 9:08 pm
#60
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: Charlotte, NC
Programs: Lifetime Plat AA, Starwood Plat 100, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 585
No one seems to be considering the effect on weather at a lot of the hubs. This past week has proven how ineffective DFW and Chicago can be with weather. Winter snow and ice, and summer thunderstorms can cripple these airports and wreak havoc on travelers. As one who had cancellations to DFW and snow affected flight delays in ORD this past weekend, CLT has much less extreme weather that would affect connections.
I say that as a new CLT resident who finds the airport there to be a welcome respite from DFW and ORD.
I say that as a new CLT resident who finds the airport there to be a welcome respite from DFW and ORD.