ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Dec 12, 2013, 7:05 am
#106
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: SOF
Programs: A3 Gold, IHG Platinum, Marriott Silver
Posts: 849
I think that all hubs will be safe even with some service adjustments but given they've committed to retain the same service levels for the next 3 years, this might be a bit premature of a discussion. In fact, I don't think there will be service reduction (in terms of dropped routes) but rather adding new destinations.
However, I'd like to discuss something that wasn't brought up in the over 100 posts in this thread, I. e. the loss of the United partnership. Since this is a cross-alliance move, the US-UA partnership is going away and I'm certain that many UA customers were utilizing US hubs and routes, so it will be interesting to see what will happen to that feed. More importantly, that may affect CLT routes. Not sure if UA has any plans to add more routes out of IAD, EWR and possibly CLE to compensate for US' departure and no more being able to route traffic through CLT but it will be interesting to see who will be the winner here - whether those customers will stick with UA despite less options or if they'll make the move to AA and OneWorld.
The situation in DC and PHL is basically the same. With PHL and EWR both being Star Alliance hubs, NJ residents had options but PHL is going away now, so again, it will be interesting to see if those fliers will stick with US, AA and OneWorld or travel up to EWR and remain loyal Star Alliance fliers.
For DC-area fliers, IAD and DCA are both Star Alliance hubs, so it would be very difficult for someone based there to avoid Star Alliance. DCA being a domestic hub and IAD international it seems like it's the best setup for someone who travels a lot both domestically and internationally. With US merging with AA and moving to OneWorld, you end up with a Star Alliance hub at IAD and OneWorld at DCA. So, a DC-based flier might be torn to pick what alliance to stick to. Unfortunately, AS is of no help here since it bridges OW and ST carriers but no Star Alliance.
The previous mergers between DL and NW and UA and CO didn't have that - they were all same alliance, so this is a very different case and in my opinion, a very big issue that new AA will have to address. If they make it very appealing for the DC-area and NJ residents and also, those flying to the Southeast, that would be a huge win for new AA. Given how United followed Delta in implementing PQD requirements for FFs for next year, it won't be difficult for new AA to attract those customers but if they start messing with their FF program, they may find themselves in UA's position in a few years. Only time will tell.
I really wanted to bring up the fact that in many areas, US and UA fliers probably used either one without much of a thought given they belonged to the same alliance but starting March 31st, 2014 when that is no longer the case, they will have to make a choice which carrier to pick and I firmly believe that will have a MAJOR impact on what new AA's hubs and routes will look like and it'd be nice to have others join this conversation who may have access to more data on the matter.
However, I'd like to discuss something that wasn't brought up in the over 100 posts in this thread, I. e. the loss of the United partnership. Since this is a cross-alliance move, the US-UA partnership is going away and I'm certain that many UA customers were utilizing US hubs and routes, so it will be interesting to see what will happen to that feed. More importantly, that may affect CLT routes. Not sure if UA has any plans to add more routes out of IAD, EWR and possibly CLE to compensate for US' departure and no more being able to route traffic through CLT but it will be interesting to see who will be the winner here - whether those customers will stick with UA despite less options or if they'll make the move to AA and OneWorld.
The situation in DC and PHL is basically the same. With PHL and EWR both being Star Alliance hubs, NJ residents had options but PHL is going away now, so again, it will be interesting to see if those fliers will stick with US, AA and OneWorld or travel up to EWR and remain loyal Star Alliance fliers.
For DC-area fliers, IAD and DCA are both Star Alliance hubs, so it would be very difficult for someone based there to avoid Star Alliance. DCA being a domestic hub and IAD international it seems like it's the best setup for someone who travels a lot both domestically and internationally. With US merging with AA and moving to OneWorld, you end up with a Star Alliance hub at IAD and OneWorld at DCA. So, a DC-based flier might be torn to pick what alliance to stick to. Unfortunately, AS is of no help here since it bridges OW and ST carriers but no Star Alliance.
The previous mergers between DL and NW and UA and CO didn't have that - they were all same alliance, so this is a very different case and in my opinion, a very big issue that new AA will have to address. If they make it very appealing for the DC-area and NJ residents and also, those flying to the Southeast, that would be a huge win for new AA. Given how United followed Delta in implementing PQD requirements for FFs for next year, it won't be difficult for new AA to attract those customers but if they start messing with their FF program, they may find themselves in UA's position in a few years. Only time will tell.
I really wanted to bring up the fact that in many areas, US and UA fliers probably used either one without much of a thought given they belonged to the same alliance but starting March 31st, 2014 when that is no longer the case, they will have to make a choice which carrier to pick and I firmly believe that will have a MAJOR impact on what new AA's hubs and routes will look like and it'd be nice to have others join this conversation who may have access to more data on the matter.
Dec 12, 2013, 7:51 am
#107
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: BOS, BWI, DCA, IAD
Programs: American, Delta, JetBlue, United
Posts: 2,049
I live in DC, and prefer to use DCA and BWI rather than IAD, because of my location in the city. I prefer UA's frequent flier program (with AA's program as my second choice), because I use my miles for flights to Europe. In addition to its own numerous flights IAD-Europe, UA has partner flights to Europe on OS, LH and SK; it also offers such flights with a connection from DCA through BOS, EWR and CLT, though the BOS and CLT connections will cease (at least as things stand now) with the departure of US. AA does not fly to Europe from this area, and its only partner that does (BA) has prohibitive fees for award travel. I have been able to schedule two 2014 award trips from Germany to Washington using AA miles, but as things stand now I need to spend a night in NYC on one occasion and a night at RDU on another in order to get an award flight on AA from New York to Washington. Fortunately, AA permit changes at no charge as long as origin and destination remain unchanged, so these plans are still works in progress. I am hopeful that the merger with US will help matters, but this remains to be seen.
Dec 12, 2013, 8:07 am
#108
Join Date: Jul 2013
Programs: AA EXP; UA 1k; MR Platinum; SPG Gold
Posts: 167
I live in DC, and prefer to use DCA and BWI rather than IAD, because of my location in the city. I prefer UA's frequent flier program (with AA's program as my second choice), because I use my miles for flights to Europe. In addition to its own numerous flights IAD-Europe, UA has partner flights to Europe on OS, LH and SK; it also offers such flights with a connection from DCA through BOS, EWR and CLT, though the BOS and CLT connections will cease (at least as things stand now) with the departure of US. AA does not fly to Europe from this area, and its only partner that does (BA) has prohibitive fees for award travel. I have been able to schedule two 2014 award trips from Germany to Washington using AA miles, but as things stand now I need to spend a night in NYC on one occasion and a night at RDU on another in order to get an award flight on AA from New York to Washington. Fortunately, AA permit changes at no charge as long as origin and destination remain unchanged, so these plans are still works in progress. I am hopeful that the merger with US will help matters, but this remains to be seen.
Obviously that isn't LH/LX/etc from star, but the situation will likely improve as I'm sure IAG will be looking to fill seats to support the growth of the new hubs they are opening.
New Bases/Hubs:
AMS
FCO
BRU
*I believe there are other new bases, just don't know off the top of my head
Over 50 new routes are on the books to start in 2014 and they are about to start adding inflight wifi. (worth noting that last quarter they posted something like 25% OI, which is pretty amazing for any carrier, let alone one in such an aggressive growth phase)
Dec 12, 2013, 9:00 am
#109
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
Regarding the UA partnership, one thing that UA is royally screwing up is their partner award chart. Previously, it was a no-brainer that UA miles were more valuable going TATL than any other carrier - one ways, reasonable (50/100 J, 62.5/125 F) redemption rates and NO YQ. Keeping that around another year would have certainly made people think harder on that loyalty front.
As a former DC-area resident (Ballston), I think I can say that NOBODY is changing preferred airports based on airline loyalty. From where I used to live, I wouldn't even entertain BWI, and maybe flew IAD twice, because DCA was so convenient. Proximity to the airport is serious business there because it takes so long to travel relatively short distances.
As for who's taking it on the chin, it depends on where. In the Northeast, it'd be very hard to make the case that UA has a better network than US. Let's not even factor in that PHL is a palace compared to EWR, and just the idea that you can get to pretty much any large or small city in the mid-atlantic and new england on US - and much of that is non-stop due to the presence of two major city hubs in DCA and PHL. Add the shuttle to that and you're in pretty good shape to get between BOS, LGA, or DCA. If you look at the midwest, though, UA runs a lot of connecting traffic through ORD. I believe someone else posted that AA is the O&D revenue leader at ORD, though, so it'll be competitive. Both have ORD, and both have Texas hubs. TCON from New England probably goes to US/AA, factoring in AA's partnership with AS. You can accrue AA EQM and fly nonstop BOS-SEA/PDX/LAX/SAN/PHX, the only major gap being SFO where UA leads.
As a former DC-area resident (Ballston), I think I can say that NOBODY is changing preferred airports based on airline loyalty. From where I used to live, I wouldn't even entertain BWI, and maybe flew IAD twice, because DCA was so convenient. Proximity to the airport is serious business there because it takes so long to travel relatively short distances.
As for who's taking it on the chin, it depends on where. In the Northeast, it'd be very hard to make the case that UA has a better network than US. Let's not even factor in that PHL is a palace compared to EWR, and just the idea that you can get to pretty much any large or small city in the mid-atlantic and new england on US - and much of that is non-stop due to the presence of two major city hubs in DCA and PHL. Add the shuttle to that and you're in pretty good shape to get between BOS, LGA, or DCA. If you look at the midwest, though, UA runs a lot of connecting traffic through ORD. I believe someone else posted that AA is the O&D revenue leader at ORD, though, so it'll be competitive. Both have ORD, and both have Texas hubs. TCON from New England probably goes to US/AA, factoring in AA's partnership with AS. You can accrue AA EQM and fly nonstop BOS-SEA/PDX/LAX/SAN/PHX, the only major gap being SFO where UA leads.
Last edited by PWMTrav; Dec 12, 2013 at 9:05 am
Dec 12, 2013, 9:07 am
#110
Join Date: Sep 2011
Programs: AA SPG Amex
Posts: 4,644
Thinking about this again, I think that certain CLT traffic, particularly to LHR and SFO, will depend on one thing: contracts from Bank of America and Wells Fargo. BoA is actually headquartered there (despite some activities being NY-based), while Wells still has all the legacy Wachovia ops there. Being able to negotiate a single contract for flights out of NYC and CLT might be attractive to both parties, and if the banks want (and will guarantee purchases of) seats to London and SF (Wells' HQ), something tells me they'll get them.
Dec 12, 2013, 9:28 am
#111
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: BOS
Programs: AA EXP/2MM, HH Gold, MR Plat, Nat'l Exec Elite
Posts: 5,995
Any speculation on whether the UA codeshare will survive, or even better, if the New AA will decide to expand BOS capacity and routes?
Dec 12, 2013, 9:39 am
#112
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Agreed. With its huge fleet of A340s, its large fleet of even larger 4-engined widebodies and not that many A330s, I'm surprised that LH has avoided insolvency.
Dec 12, 2013, 9:44 am
#113
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: RBKC
Programs: AA EXP and Eurostar Carte Blanche
Posts: 3,850
A look back at AA reductions in BOS
Dec 12, 2013, 9:50 am
#114
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: RBKC
Programs: AA EXP and Eurostar Carte Blanche
Posts: 3,850
I beg to differ 
TATL C inventory can be difficult to find sometimes, and AA flyers already have to connect if we want to use eVIPs between London and any of the non-cornerstone cities. Connections in RDU are actually easier than at JFK, for example, so if the connection schedule works, RDU can be a great place to connect on the way to or from London.
TATL C inventory can be difficult to find sometimes, and AA flyers already have to connect if we want to use eVIPs between London and any of the non-cornerstone cities. Connections in RDU are actually easier than at JFK, for example, so if the connection schedule works, RDU can be a great place to connect on the way to or from London.
Dec 12, 2013, 11:05 am
#115
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Programs: AA Gold AAdvantage Elite, Rapids Reward
Posts: 38,324
Can we see more new nonstop PHL/ORD-BSL or CLT-BSL? Will they consider it?
Dec 12, 2013, 11:16 am
#116
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2001
Location: LAX; AA EXP, MM; HH Gold
Posts: 31,789
Dec 12, 2013, 12:31 pm
#117
Join Date: Sep 2013
Location: Washington, D.C.
Posts: 13
Pharmaceuticals/Biotech in Switzerland typically connect via ZRH and drive much of the traffic on LX to EWR and SFO (IIRC, Roche was one of the main corporate contracts LX needed to get to begin the SFO-ZRH route (in addition to Google) and for a bit in the early 'aughts EWR-BSL was a possible route CO was considering for Novartis).
Dec 12, 2013, 2:26 pm
#118
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: DL: Silver; AA: EX PLAT; UA: Silver; HY: DIA; HH: DIA; MR: TIT
Posts: 1,708
Yes, particularly interested in the BOS - SFO - BOS route. US has had a codeshare with a UA direct flight but I can't imagine this continuing with the merger. Any speculation on whether the UA codeshare will survive, or even better, if the New AA will decide to expand BOS capacity and routes?
Dec 12, 2013, 2:33 pm
#119
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: PIT
Posts: 759
Here's my Guesses:
JFK - Limited Growth to very select international O&D markets - e.g., TLV. Re-strategize JFK-LAX to increase profitability.
PHL - The majority of AA international growth, via the Northeast U.S., will be from PHL. BA will increase it's presence with the PHL-LHR JV and associated new connecting traffic. Domestic-International connecting traffic will increase.
CLT - Some downsizing. Majority of reductions will not be replaced/transferred to other hubs. International will be reduced to LHR, possibly seasonal MAD and a few Caribbean resorts. CLT will become primarily a connecting source for NS-EW domestic flights. If it's determined CLT is significantly cheaper to fly connecting passengers through and from, than MIA or JFK, the single CLT-GRU flight might remain.
PHX - About the same domestic routes, but significantly reduced capacity (number of flights) in favor of DFW and LAX. Majority of reductions will not be replaced/transferred to other hubs. International - BA stays and that's about it, except for possibly Mexico.
DFW - Limited Growth to select cities.
ORD - No Growth - turn it over to UA. Concentrate on JFK/PHL for international growth.
MIA - Limited Growth to Latin America. Not really too familiar with MIA. It would appear that most un-served Europe/Asia/Middle East expansion will be limited to Latin American connecting traffic, because of MIA's unfavorable geographic location compared to other Hubs (JFK, PHL, DFW, etc..).
LAX - Probably the key to Asia expansion. The new AA needs much more exposure to Asia and quickly. How that materializes will be interesting. The ? is how is Parker going to position AA in the large U.S.- Asia O&D markets where competition is fierce (LAX, SFO, JFK).
JFK - Limited Growth to very select international O&D markets - e.g., TLV. Re-strategize JFK-LAX to increase profitability.
PHL - The majority of AA international growth, via the Northeast U.S., will be from PHL. BA will increase it's presence with the PHL-LHR JV and associated new connecting traffic. Domestic-International connecting traffic will increase.
CLT - Some downsizing. Majority of reductions will not be replaced/transferred to other hubs. International will be reduced to LHR, possibly seasonal MAD and a few Caribbean resorts. CLT will become primarily a connecting source for NS-EW domestic flights. If it's determined CLT is significantly cheaper to fly connecting passengers through and from, than MIA or JFK, the single CLT-GRU flight might remain.
PHX - About the same domestic routes, but significantly reduced capacity (number of flights) in favor of DFW and LAX. Majority of reductions will not be replaced/transferred to other hubs. International - BA stays and that's about it, except for possibly Mexico.
DFW - Limited Growth to select cities.
ORD - No Growth - turn it over to UA. Concentrate on JFK/PHL for international growth.
MIA - Limited Growth to Latin America. Not really too familiar with MIA. It would appear that most un-served Europe/Asia/Middle East expansion will be limited to Latin American connecting traffic, because of MIA's unfavorable geographic location compared to other Hubs (JFK, PHL, DFW, etc..).
LAX - Probably the key to Asia expansion. The new AA needs much more exposure to Asia and quickly. How that materializes will be interesting. The ? is how is Parker going to position AA in the large U.S.- Asia O&D markets where competition is fierce (LAX, SFO, JFK).
Dec 12, 2013, 2:51 pm
#120
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
MIA - Limited Growth to Latin America. Not really too familiar with MIA. It would appear that most un-served Europe/Asia/Middle East expansion will be limited to Latin American connecting traffic, because of MIA's unfavorable geographic location compared to other Hubs (JFK, PHL, DFW, etc..).