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ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)

ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)

 

Old Dec 10, 13, 6:46 pm
  #61  
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Originally Posted by MAH4546 View Post
CLT has way more than that.

It has LHR, FRA, CDG, MAD, FCO, BCN, BRU, LIS, MAN and DUB.

The first four are safe. The rest? Buh-bye.
Hmmm.. then something must have been off when I looked at their online route map this afternoon. Sorry.
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Old Dec 10, 13, 7:05 pm
  #62  
 
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Consider myself one of those folks who doesn't understand why there has to be "winners" and "losers" in the hub wars. I think the set up between the five legacy AA hubs and the three legacy US hubs sets the route network up nicely. Don't get me wrong, I am not nave and understand there will be shifting of flights, etc. I honestly don't see any of the hubs becoming the next CVG or MEM in the next couple of years. TATL I foresee those airports which have service to the major European airports (LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA and MAD) keeping 90% of the routes. Where I see potential movement is the "second-tier" European airports. I think the big question is where will expansion to Asia come from? That is still the largest hole in the world's largest airline and I have to believe it's one that the new AA will look to address fairly quickly. Will flights be added from LAX (already running at full capacity) or will AA choose DFW or ORD? Does PHL get it's first non-stop flight to Asia (perhaps NRT) and will there be any love for JFK? That is what I think will be interesting.
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Old Dec 10, 13, 7:19 pm
  #63  
 
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Originally Posted by ElmhurstNick View Post
CLT has flights to Rome, Paris, Frankfurt, and London. Of those, I could see Frankfurt get dropped depending on how much feed was connecting to LHR, and a connection to Air Berlin (DUS? or TXL) or Iberia (MAD) start up.
I doubt that CLT to FRA will be dropped as there are over 200 German companies with US bases in the Charlotte metro area.
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Old Dec 10, 13, 8:20 pm
  #64  
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Is the CLT area more important than RDU? AA used to have an actual hub at RDU in the 1980s-1990s. It is a much smaller operation today, of course, but RTP is still there providing an economic incentive (hence the nonstop LHR service). Plus, RDU has the same excellent quasi-Southern location (virtually no winter storms, minimal summer WX, zero ATC congestion, etc) as CLT.

I fully admit that I write this message in complete ignorance of US and its routes--it's just too new and I haven't bothered to educate myself about the existing routes that US operates. But I'm just wondering why the "new AA" wouldn't use the opportunity to move some traffic over to RDU to bulk up its former hub and expand its presence and use of the new terminal. Maybe some domestic flights for additional feed to/from MIA/NYC/WAS/etc.?

After all, we all saw what happened to STL after the TWA merger....AA said "we are strongly committed to St. Louis" in 2001, and within 5 years, STL had barely any AA mainline service remaining.
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Old Dec 10, 13, 8:51 pm
  #65  
 
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Originally Posted by ESpen36 View Post
Plus, RDU has the same excellent quasi-Southern location (virtually no winter storms, minimal summer WX, zero ATC congestion, etc) as CLT.
Why bother? If CLT ain't broke, don't "fix" it by moving to RDU. You have an existing employee base and a cooperative airport authority already at CLT. I think there is a zero percent chance of any movement from CLT to RDU.

Last edited by Microwave; Dec 11, 13 at 12:58 am Reason: Corrected invalid quote syntax
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Old Dec 10, 13, 9:00 pm
  #66  
 
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Originally Posted by dtremit View Post
50% more traffic by what metric? Just curious. I know the daily departure count at MIA is much lower than CLT, but it's not a very good yardstick.

I think, though, that AA is just not using MIA with US and DL for a lot of the traffic US is flying through CLT. MIA has plenty of traffic, but it's not the same traffic.
Originally Posted by Microwave View Post
Fair questions. I used this page on Wikipedia, which reports Miami's 2012 "total passenger boardings" as 30,227,003 and Charlotte's as 20,032,426. By these numbers, MIA has about 50% more "total passenger boardings" than CLT. However, I just scrolled down and the two airports are much more in line when measured by "total passenger traffic". I haven't got time to dig into the source material (almost bedtime!) and figure out the difference in terminology or raw data, but the numbers are wildly different so there may be something fishy with these numbers... In any case, that's where I came up with it.
dtremit, , Not sure if you saw my post on the first page, but from what I've found, the below sources seem to be fairly accurate representations of passenger traffic at both airports. (41.23 million for CLT, and 39.47 million for MIA). I've dug around a good bit, and these are the statistics reported on each airport's respective websites, and they seem in line with other sources (RITA, Airports Council International, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, etc). Microwave, I think you mentioned you saw these numbers, but couldn't tell for sure in your response.

Again, these numbers are a total of enplaning and deplaning passengers, and including both international and domestic.

Sources for the passenger info:

Miami info (39.47 million pax in 2012): http://www.miami-airport.com/2012_traffic_report.asp

Charlotte info (41.23 million pax in 2012): http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/A...sIncrease.aspx

Corroborating source: http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports

Last edited by DCdeacon; Dec 10, 13 at 9:07 pm
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Old Dec 10, 13, 11:11 pm
  #67  
 
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The CLT area is actually bigger than the RDU area (I was surprised when I learned this recently). And my understanding is that Charlotte has developed a strong presence in the financial sector over the decade or two. Between CLT and RDU, CLT appears to be the current business leader of NC (though I say with limited knowledge and am open to correction and flogging as appropriate)

MSA populations

The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,296,569

The Raleigh, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,188,564
*****However, Durham is a separate MSA, so it more accurate to look at the CSA in this case (see below)

CSA populations

The Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,454,619.
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,998,808.

The CSA numbers are closer, but the population of the Charlotte CSA is still around 25% larger than the RDU CSA.

Source Links

MSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas

CSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas

Last edited by ty97; Dec 10, 13 at 11:12 pm Reason: removing errant line break
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Old Dec 11, 13, 1:02 am
  #68  
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Originally Posted by dtremit View Post
Actually, it looks like someone broke that Wikipedia page back in October. I think someone trying to edit the page rotated the columns and then tried to fix the ranking based on that. I may go fix it later.

In any case, the table refers to this document as a source, which puts 2012 MIA enplanements at 18,987,488.
Fair enough, I stand corrected. The FAA source definitely makes that clear. I would like to reinforce that I think CLT is best positioned of the three pmUS hubs, and think that it gives AA a lot of flexibility in balancing routes and capacity along the east coast. MIA is in a great geographic position for some routes and a poor position for others, and I see CLT helping to fill a void there.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 2:13 am
  #69  
 
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Originally Posted by Microwave View Post
Fair enough, I stand corrected. The FAA source definitely makes that clear. I would like to reinforce that I think CLT is best positioned of the three pmUS hubs, and think that it gives AA a lot of flexibility in balancing routes and capacity along the east coast. MIA is in a great geographic position for some routes and a poor position for others, and I see CLT helping to fill a void there.
A few problems.

1) CLT's single biggest traffic flow is Northeast<->Florida. This is just as well served via Miami.

2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.

Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:26 am
  #70  
 
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Originally Posted by chiil1974 View Post
Does PHL get it's first non-stop flight to Asia (perhaps NRT) and will there be any love for JFK? That is what I think will be interesting.
LAX - the stated plan was to grow LAX. TBIT gates will add a lot of slack + they weren't at capacity prior without the TBIT additions. --> now maybe that plan changes under new AA/US, but I doubt it.

JFK - Service will undoubtedly return to NRT. I'm sure we will see some additional growth to Asia and Europe announced over the months.

We will see a lot of new opportunities with the re-optimizing of the 772 fleet configurations and the 788/9s coming online.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:27 am
  #71  
 
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Originally Posted by nall View Post
This is for connections into/out of the southeast, and the options are typically ATL, CLT, DFW, and MIA. I can't speak to other regions.

But often people have to get late connections, and frequently it seems like they get stuck in CLT for the night due to misconnects too, so there's also that.
I don't fly to the SE much, except for the occasional CHA run. I'll defer to your experience there. The only thing I'd say is that I don't want to connect in DFW or MIA for a Southeast destination as I'm coming from New England.

None *HAVE* to go, but a couple likely will. Other mergers (e.g., DL/NW) ultimately ended with some hub closures, and good management will do that.

Remember this is a company, not a non-profit. They're not going to keep open hubs they don't need out of the goodness of their hearts.
I'm not seeing it. DL/NW dehubbed some smaller cities. Are we talking about MEM/CVG? I'd liken those more to PIT than any of the current post-merger AA hubs. In my view, there's a very natural rationalization that could happen - focusing NYC and LAX on internationals/TCON and shifting domestic regional or MIDCON traffic to PHL and PHX, respectively, to free up slots/gates. Unlike the DL de-hubs, all of the current AA hubs are in large markets, except for maybe CLT which has other strategic advantages (cost, space). If you really twist my arm, I could maybe understand losing PHX, but that's just opening the door for someone like WN to come in and take away regional business.

I most certainly did not. In fact, I pointed out CLT as being one of the most valuable and safe hubs. I suggest you re-read my post.
OK, fair enough, I missed you on that one but my substantive points still stand.

Last edited by PWMTrav; Dec 11, 13 at 7:28 am Reason: Derped the quotes, sorry.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:31 am
  #72  
 
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Originally Posted by MAH4546 View Post
A few problems.

1) CLT's single biggest traffic flow is Northeast<->Florida. This is just as well served via Miami.

2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.

Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
20-30% is a lot. What, exactly, do you think goes away? There's a lot of connecting traffic from the Northeast through CLT to the Southeast. You can't just shift that up to PHL/DCA. I'm sure I'm not the only one that isn't going to fly through DFW for most destinations east of the Mississippi.

Shifting more traffic to ORD probably doesn't make sense, either for the 6 months of winter or because ORD is a far more competitive and costly airport than CLT.

Don't get me wrong, I can definitely see some shift from CLT to DFW, but I can also see some going the other way.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:33 am
  #73  
 
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Originally Posted by nall View Post
I would think the more likely gotcha is that the USAA management decides to severely restrict low-level award availability, which is what BA pulls from.
As someone who is CLT-based and takes full advantage of BA Avios, I am afraid of this as well. Long live the 9000 Avios round-trips to ORD and LGA! That said, stocking up on Avios couldn't be easier given the ability to transfer from MR, UR, and SPG, as well as the Chase BA card. I'm loading up.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:38 am
  #74  
 
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Originally Posted by MAH4546 View Post

2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.

Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
This is kind of what I was thinking. I also predict a big shift of international flights to DFW and ORD and MIA....metro areas where O&D traffic is significantly stronger.
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Old Dec 11, 13, 7:44 am
  #75  
 
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Originally Posted by midnightinharlem View Post
As someone who is CLT-based and takes full advantage of BA Avios, I am afraid of this as well. Long live the 9000 Avios round-trips to ORD and LGA! That said, stocking up on Avios couldn't be easier given the ability to transfer from MR, UR, and SPG, as well as the Chase BA card. I'm loading up.
Slightly OT, but are you finding that your BA redemptions on AA metal are printing with Priority Access?
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