ARCHIVE: Routes (Flights) and Hubs (Speculation, News and Discussion)
Dec 10, 2013, 6:46 pm
#61
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Dec 10, 2013, 7:05 pm
#62
Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Chicago
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Consider myself one of those folks who doesn't understand why there has to be "winners" and "losers" in the hub wars. I think the set up between the five legacy AA hubs and the three legacy US hubs sets the route network up nicely. Don't get me wrong, I am not naïve and understand there will be shifting of flights, etc. I honestly don't see any of the hubs becoming the next CVG or MEM in the next couple of years. TATL I foresee those airports which have service to the major European airports (LHR, CDG, AMS, FRA and MAD) keeping 90% of the routes. Where I see potential movement is the "second-tier" European airports. I think the big question is where will expansion to Asia come from? That is still the largest hole in the world's largest airline and I have to believe it's one that the new AA will look to address fairly quickly. Will flights be added from LAX (already running at full capacity) or will AA choose DFW or ORD? Does PHL get it's first non-stop flight to Asia (perhaps NRT) and will there be any love for JFK? That is what I think will be interesting.
Dec 10, 2013, 7:19 pm
#63
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: CLT
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I doubt that CLT to FRA will be dropped as there are over 200 German companies with US bases in the Charlotte metro area.
Dec 10, 2013, 8:20 pm
#64
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Is the CLT area more important than RDU? AA used to have an actual hub at RDU in the 1980s-1990s. It is a much smaller operation today, of course, but RTP is still there providing an economic incentive (hence the nonstop LHR service). Plus, RDU has the same excellent quasi-Southern location (virtually no winter storms, minimal summer WX, zero ATC congestion, etc) as CLT.
I fully admit that I write this message in complete ignorance of US and its routes--it's just too new and I haven't bothered to educate myself about the existing routes that US operates. But I'm just wondering why the "new AA" wouldn't use the opportunity to move some traffic over to RDU to bulk up its former hub and expand its presence and use of the new terminal. Maybe some domestic flights for additional feed to/from MIA/NYC/WAS/etc.?
After all, we all saw what happened to STL after the TWA merger....AA said "we are strongly committed to St. Louis" in 2001, and within 5 years, STL had barely any AA mainline service remaining.
I fully admit that I write this message in complete ignorance of US and its routes--it's just too new and I haven't bothered to educate myself about the existing routes that US operates. But I'm just wondering why the "new AA" wouldn't use the opportunity to move some traffic over to RDU to bulk up its former hub and expand its presence and use of the new terminal. Maybe some domestic flights for additional feed to/from MIA/NYC/WAS/etc.?
After all, we all saw what happened to STL after the TWA merger....AA said "we are strongly committed to St. Louis" in 2001, and within 5 years, STL had barely any AA mainline service remaining.
Dec 10, 2013, 8:51 pm
#65
Join Date: Jan 2003
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Why bother? If CLT ain't broke, don't "fix" it by moving to RDU. You have an existing employee base and a cooperative airport authority already at CLT. I think there is a zero percent chance of any movement from CLT to RDU.
Last edited by Microwave; Dec 11, 2013 at 12:58 am Reason: Corrected invalid quote syntax
Dec 10, 2013, 9:00 pm
#66
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: CLT
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 709
50% more traffic by what metric? Just curious. I know the daily departure count at MIA is much lower than CLT, but it's not a very good yardstick.
I think, though, that AA is just not using MIA with US and DL for a lot of the traffic US is flying through CLT. MIA has plenty of traffic, but it's not the same traffic.
I think, though, that AA is just not using MIA with US and DL for a lot of the traffic US is flying through CLT. MIA has plenty of traffic, but it's not the same traffic.
Fair questions. I used this page on Wikipedia, which reports Miami's 2012 "total passenger boardings" as 30,227,003 and Charlotte's as 20,032,426. By these numbers, MIA has about 50% more "total passenger boardings" than CLT. However, I just scrolled down and the two airports are much more in line when measured by "total passenger traffic". I haven't got time to dig into the source material (almost bedtime!) and figure out the difference in terminology or raw data, but the numbers are wildly different so there may be something fishy with these numbers... In any case, that's where I came up with it.
Again, these numbers are a total of enplaning and deplaning passengers, and including both international and domestic.
Sources for the passenger info:
Miami info (39.47 million pax in 2012): http://www.miami-airport.com/2012_traffic_report.asp
Charlotte info (41.23 million pax in 2012): http://charmeck.org/city/charlotte/A...sIncrease.aspx
Corroborating source: http://www.aci-na.org/content/airport-traffic-reports
Last edited by DCdeacon; Dec 10, 2013 at 9:07 pm
Dec 10, 2013, 11:11 pm
#67
Join Date: May 2008
Location: NYC
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The CLT area is actually bigger than the RDU area (I was surprised when I learned this recently). And my understanding is that Charlotte has developed a strong presence in the financial sector over the decade or two. Between CLT and RDU, CLT appears to be the current business leader of NC (though I say with limited knowledge and am open to correction and flogging as appropriate)
MSA populations
The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,296,569
The Raleigh, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,188,564
*****However, Durham is a separate MSA, so it more accurate to look at the CSA in this case (see below)
CSA populations
The Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,454,619.
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,998,808.
The CSA numbers are closer, but the population of the Charlotte CSA is still around 25% larger than the RDU CSA.
Source Links
MSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas
CSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas
MSA populations
The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,296,569
The Raleigh, NC Metropolitan Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,188,564
*****However, Durham is a separate MSA, so it more accurate to look at the CSA in this case (see below)
CSA populations
The Charlotte-Concord, NC-SC Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 2,454,619.
The Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill Combined Statistical Area had an estimated 2012 population of 1,998,808.
The CSA numbers are closer, but the population of the Charlotte CSA is still around 25% larger than the RDU CSA.
Source Links
MSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas
CSA: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...tistical_areas
Last edited by ty97; Dec 10, 2013 at 11:12 pm Reason: removing errant line break
Dec 11, 2013, 1:02 am
#68
Moderator: American AAdvantage, Signatures
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Actually, it looks like someone broke that Wikipedia page back in October. I think someone trying to edit the page rotated the columns and then tried to fix the ranking based on that. I may go fix it later.
In any case, the table refers to this document as a source, which puts 2012 MIA enplanements at 18,987,488.
In any case, the table refers to this document as a source, which puts 2012 MIA enplanements at 18,987,488.
Dec 11, 2013, 2:13 am
#69
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
Fair enough, I stand corrected. The FAA source definitely makes that clear. I would like to reinforce that I think CLT is best positioned of the three pmUS hubs, and think that it gives AA a lot of flexibility in balancing routes and capacity along the east coast. MIA is in a great geographic position for some routes and a poor position for others, and I see CLT helping to fill a void there.
1) CLT's single biggest traffic flow is Northeast<->Florida. This is just as well served via Miami.
2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.
Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:26 am
#70
Join Date: Jul 2013
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JFK - Service will undoubtedly return to NRT. I'm sure we will see some additional growth to Asia and Europe announced over the months.
We will see a lot of new opportunities with the re-optimizing of the 772 fleet configurations and the 788/9s coming online.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:27 am
#71
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
This is for connections into/out of the southeast, and the options are typically ATL, CLT, DFW, and MIA. I can't speak to other regions.
But often people have to get late connections, and frequently it seems like they get stuck in CLT for the night due to misconnects too, so there's also that.
But often people have to get late connections, and frequently it seems like they get stuck in CLT for the night due to misconnects too, so there's also that.
None *HAVE* to go, but a couple likely will. Other mergers (e.g., DL/NW) ultimately ended with some hub closures, and good management will do that.
Remember this is a company, not a non-profit. They're not going to keep open hubs they don't need out of the goodness of their hearts.
Remember this is a company, not a non-profit. They're not going to keep open hubs they don't need out of the goodness of their hearts.
I most certainly did not. In fact, I pointed out CLT as being one of the most valuable and safe hubs. I suggest you re-read my post.
Last edited by PWMTrav; Dec 11, 2013 at 7:28 am Reason: Derped the quotes, sorry.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:31 am
#72
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
A few problems.
1) CLT's single biggest traffic flow is Northeast<->Florida. This is just as well served via Miami.
2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.
Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
1) CLT's single biggest traffic flow is Northeast<->Florida. This is just as well served via Miami.
2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.
Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
Shifting more traffic to ORD probably doesn't make sense, either for the 6 months of winter or because ORD is a far more competitive and costly airport than CLT.
Don't get me wrong, I can definitely see some shift from CLT to DFW, but I can also see some going the other way.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:33 am
#73
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: NYC
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Posts: 331
As someone who is CLT-based and takes full advantage of BA Avios, I am afraid of this as well. Long live the 9000 Avios round-trips to ORD and LGA! That said, stocking up on Avios couldn't be easier given the ability to transfer from MR, UR, and SPG, as well as the Chase BA card. I'm loading up.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:38 am
#74
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Winston Salem, NC USA
Posts: 1,074
2) Nonetheless, CLT's "threat" isn't Miami. It is Chicago and Dallas. Connection flows that US largely forces through CLT right now (e.g. SDF-LAX, BHM-LAX, BOS-AUS) are no longer best served via Charlotte.
Charlotte will shrink by 20-30% easily. But that doesn't change the fact that it still will remain a very large hub operation after the capacity is trimmed.
Dec 11, 2013, 7:44 am
#75
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: SEA
Posts: 3,955
As someone who is CLT-based and takes full advantage of BA Avios, I am afraid of this as well. Long live the 9000 Avios round-trips to ORD and LGA! That said, stocking up on Avios couldn't be easier given the ability to transfer from MR, UR, and SPG, as well as the Chase BA card. I'm loading up.