2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Jan 23, 2015, 12:12 am
#31
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, Hilton
Posts: 3,191
Thanks, that assumption of few elites in Y is helpful, knowing Y is oversold but the "preferred" seats have not been selected. My goal is to get home earlier to save a day of work instead of arriving in the evening, although I think my chances are good with upgrading on the 77w.
sukn, why do you assume it's less than 5 EXP on the upgrade list?
sukn, why do you assume it's less than 5 EXP on the upgrade list?
Jan 23, 2015, 8:26 am
#32
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
Programs: AA PLT/1MM
Posts: 68
Can we talk Miles+CoPay Upgrades?
Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
Jan 23, 2015, 9:33 am
#33
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: CA
Programs: AA-EXP, National Exec. Elite, Hilton Gold, GE
Posts: 323
Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
Jan 23, 2015, 11:10 am
#34
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548
Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
I predict you will clear in the week before, maybe day 4-5 out.
GL
Jan 23, 2015, 1:09 pm
#35
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: SJC/VCE
Programs: AA PLT (2.9+ MM), HH GLD, Hyatt Diamond, SPG PLT
Posts: 10,161
Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
Jan 23, 2015, 1:10 pm
#36
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
Somewhat related, I'm standing by for an earlier flight to maximize upgrade chances. To be clear, even though I'm now on the standby list for the earlier flight, I am still on the upgrade list in the same order for my original flight, right?
I realize I need to clear the standby to be added to the upgrade list on the earlier flight.
I realize I need to clear the standby to be added to the upgrade list on the earlier flight.
Jan 23, 2015, 1:51 pm
#37
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: USA
Programs: AA EXP, UA GLD, Bonvoy Titan, HH Dia, WoH Exp
Posts: 2,673
Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.
I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?
4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
Jan 23, 2015, 2:58 pm
#38
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
Programs: AA PLT/1MM
Posts: 68
NYC is a major financial center. Milan is also a major financial center. From the airline's perspective, it is reasonable to expect last minute revenue booking in business class. If they can collect $5K/ticket, AA RM will wait and save those seats for business travelers with a generous travel expense account.
Jan 23, 2015, 3:04 pm
#39
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
Programs: AA PLT/1MM
Posts: 68
Jan 23, 2015, 3:19 pm
#40
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
Programs: AA EXP 1.0mm, not sure where I am with hotels these days
Posts: 2,795
Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
Jan 23, 2015, 5:13 pm
#41
In Memoriam, FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: Benicia CA
Programs: Alaska MVP Gold 75K, AA 3.8MM, UA 1.1MM, enjoying the retired life
Posts: 31,849
I've not tried that so don't have the answer. I think your biggest risk may be that they clear the upgrade list before they clear the standby list, and if there's no upgrade seats left you'll be riding in coach after you clear the standby list.
Jan 23, 2015, 5:16 pm
#42
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: Alaska Airlines Gold MVP
Posts: 7,170
Yes, but that's not a risk, because when you clear the standby list, you don't get taken off your original flight until you actually board the new flight. So if I don't like my seat/don't get upgraded, I simply don't board.
Jan 23, 2015, 7:24 pm
#43
Join Date: May 2009
Location: SEA
Programs: AA EXP (2.5MM), Hilton Gold, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 4,859
I've been "OK" with this when I've requested EXP Comp upgrades at time of booking and then waitlisted for SWU. Both seem to stay in place. But i've read of other folks not being able to have both.
Jan 24, 2015, 2:55 pm
#44
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 2,405
I'm curious to see how this goes. Requested miles+copay upgrade on DFW-MAD early march for wife and I. J cabin wide open at the moment, only 3/28 taken. Amazingly when I was tracking this flight last week EF was showing C2. Unfortunately couldn't snag those as had to confirm our plans yet. MCE is little more than half full (was about the same last week), so I like our chances. Interesting though that there was C space available despite many seats occupied in MCE.
Jan 25, 2015, 2:05 pm
#45
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Victoria, B.C.
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, AA Gold LT
Posts: 1,936
Does anyone have any predictions for 2015?
I did a quick search using Experflyer and searched maybe 100 dates, and couldn't find a single Dallas - London "C" space. Unfortunately from my location I am forced to fly DFW-LHR to get to most European locations unless I want a forced night layover before I start my trip, and when I return.
In past years you have hear me whine about less "C" space. However I was usually able to find at least 6 days in a year with "C" space availability. I also complained about a huge reduction in the saver business award space American Airlines was releasing.
Last year was a burn year for me. I only managed about 15K on AA, so I obviously didn't requalify as Ex Plat. so I am not up to date with current conditions with regards to SWU availability.
However, fond memories of flying to Europe on AA have made me reconsider chasing the AA Ex Platinum status once again.
With the 787's and the worse ratio of Y-J will that make it harder too?
AA is also retrofitting many aircraft. So although improving the hard product, again a worse Y/J ratio.
What do you think 2015 will bring? Any predictions for the year? Strategies - I used to just book flights that had confirmable "C"?
I did a quick search using Experflyer and searched maybe 100 dates, and couldn't find a single Dallas - London "C" space. Unfortunately from my location I am forced to fly DFW-LHR to get to most European locations unless I want a forced night layover before I start my trip, and when I return.
In past years you have hear me whine about less "C" space. However I was usually able to find at least 6 days in a year with "C" space availability. I also complained about a huge reduction in the saver business award space American Airlines was releasing.
Last year was a burn year for me. I only managed about 15K on AA, so I obviously didn't requalify as Ex Plat. so I am not up to date with current conditions with regards to SWU availability.
However, fond memories of flying to Europe on AA have made me reconsider chasing the AA Ex Platinum status once again.
With the 787's and the worse ratio of Y-J will that make it harder too?
AA is also retrofitting many aircraft. So although improving the hard product, again a worse Y/J ratio.
What do you think 2015 will bring? Any predictions for the year? Strategies - I used to just book flights that had confirmable "C"?