2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)
Dec 25, 2015, 9:38 pm
#1216
Join Date: Feb 2011
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 810
Anyone have any info on SWUs clearing from LHR-LAX? I just waitlisted, and am about 50 days out - flight is on a Tuesday.
Dec 26, 2015, 5:09 pm
#1217
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/MCI/SAN
Programs: AA CK MM, AC SE100K, UA 1K, DL Plat, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Diamond, Marriott Platinum
Posts: 1,986
My brother just started working in STL and will be commuting from AUS to STL every week Sunday night to Thursday. Trying to make his decision between AA and WN and I'm wondering how often will he be upgraded to First between DFW and STL (he doesn't care about the AUS-DFW flight). Once he gets to Exec platinum (which would happen the beginning of August), how often can he expect to be upgraded? Because WN has a nonstop AUS-STL and he'd qualify for the companion pass.
The one thing that could kill UPG percentage, though, is the aircraft type. In the past, this route has been serviced primarily by the MD-80, with an occasional 738 or 757. Recently, though, it's been the MD-80, LUS CR9, and LAA 319. F cabins on the 319 only have eight seats and routinely sell out before the T-100 EXP upgrade window. Some travelers may not like the CR9 regional jet flights -- the F cabin is actually fairly comfortable, and the single seat side is nice (1x2 configuration), but gate checking rollaboards is a pain.
Dec 26, 2015, 11:09 pm
#1218
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,960
My brother just started working in STL and will be commuting from AUS to STL every week Sunday night to Thursday. Trying to make his decision between AA and WN and I'm wondering how often will he be upgraded to First between DFW and STL (he doesn't care about the AUS-DFW flight). Once he gets to Exec platinum (which would happen the beginning of August), how often can he expect to be upgraded? Because WN has a nonstop AUS-STL and he'd qualify for the companion pass.
I first earned EXP the hard way on segments commuting between AUS and DFW. For me it was a no-brainer since I didn't need to worry about missing a connection and DFW was much closer to my destination than Love Field. In your brother's situation I'd probably opt for WN.
Dec 27, 2015, 6:14 am
#1219
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
Booked on MIA-MVD on a Saturday night in March and EZE-JFK on a Wednesday night -- anyone got experience with what the chances are for two pax from J to F as EXP in C? From what it seems on EF, the MIA-MVD loads are pretty full in both cabins. Thanks y'all in advance!
Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?
Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?
Last edited by supermintyfresh; Dec 27, 2015 at 6:21 am
Dec 27, 2015, 6:25 am
#1220
Join Date: May 2008
Location: San Francisco, where else?
Programs: EXP,EX-CK 2.5mm, now lifetime Platinum, ex-UA1K, Marriott- Platinum, Hertz 5*
Posts: 991
They just zeroed out all the fare buckets on flights I was watching from DFW to SFO for tomorrow... I assume this indicates overbooking / weather? Assigned seats in F are the same quantity as before.
Dec 27, 2015, 9:58 am
#1221
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum/MM, DL Gold/MM, Hilton Diamond, Accor Platinum, Hertz Presidents Circle
Posts: 6,960
Bad weather in DFW yesterday and today means that the impact will spill over into tomorrow's flights. So they proactively zero out flights to make the gate agents sort everything out. However, they will often still process some advance upgrades even if a flight is F0.
Dec 27, 2015, 11:26 pm
#1222
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: New Orleans (MSY)
Programs: AA EXP, IHG PLT, Hilton Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Amtrak, WN
Posts: 2,617
I would opine that it may mirror DFW-HKG and reverse where the Tue/Wed/Thu flight arrivals that fall right in the middle of a work week will be the easiest. With the date change there will be plenty of people missing the Mon or Fri I suspect.
The good thing about AA starting more "popular" routes like DFW-HKG, LAX-SYD and LAX-AKL is there are more flights where folks will want to burn their SWUs as opposed to everyone flying DFW-HKG.
The cut to 4 SWUs down to 8 will help a lot too. Having 8 does no good if you only fly a few paid intl trips a year and miss on some of them...
Hawaii also needs an SWU now to have a good chance of riding up front.
The good thing about AA starting more "popular" routes like DFW-HKG, LAX-SYD and LAX-AKL is there are more flights where folks will want to burn their SWUs as opposed to everyone flying DFW-HKG.
The cut to 4 SWUs down to 8 will help a lot too. Having 8 does no good if you only fly a few paid intl trips a year and miss on some of them...
Hawaii also needs an SWU now to have a good chance of riding up front.
Oh, yeah, it's going to be GREAT having four SWUs to upgrade into "Premium" Y.
Dec 28, 2015, 1:38 am
#1223
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: DTW
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO
Posts: 1,719
While I'm certainly glad that the upgrades came through, I don't like the new super stingy revenue management approach to upgrades and award availability. What, in the next two days they'll sell more than a dozen premium seats on Xmas day?? Makes me wonder how I'll ever be able to use my many miles pre price hike and short of "AAnytime" highway robbery "awards".
The new model will be (almost is now) miles being usable for economy flights only on AA metal. EVIPs only clear last minute for longhaul intl and once Premium Economy comes upgrades will only be good for Y>Y+ upgrades.
Might as well use up the AA stash for partner F/J awards now before they find a way to kill off that option too. BA has YQ, Qantas has crap availability and LAN Business is basically zero too.
Dec 28, 2015, 7:23 am
#1224
Join Date: Jul 2015
Location: AMS / LOP
Programs: HH Diamond, IHG Diamond Amb., Marriott Gold, FB Plat, BAEC Silver
Posts: 481
Booked Lhr-jfk on 01-22 (friday morning 10.15 Aa 101). When I booked, J was pretty empty. Now, half the cabin filled up. I think i'm number 4/5 on the SWU waitlist (based on the number Of MCE seats that were already used). Any idea of my chances?
Also booked Lax-las on 01-23 saturday with an auto requested upgrade. Pretty empty F and MCE.
I'm Ex plt. Thanks in advance for your answers.
Also booked Lax-las on 01-23 saturday with an auto requested upgrade. Pretty empty F and MCE.
I'm Ex plt. Thanks in advance for your answers.
Dec 28, 2015, 9:16 am
#1225
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Jacksonville, Fl USA
Programs: AA EXP, Admirals Club, IHG Gold, Hilton Diamond, National Emerald Executive
Posts: 140
Booked on MIA-MVD on a Saturday night in March and EZE-JFK on a Wednesday night -- anyone got experience with what the chances are for two pax from J to F as EXP in C? From what it seems on EF, the MIA-MVD loads are pretty full in both cabins. Thanks y'all in advance!
Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?
Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?
Dec 30, 2015, 9:59 am
#1226
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 543
Okay then that's a little harder since he'll be going against people with any status who are doing SWUs and/or miles+copay -- although this number probably will be very small (surprising how stingy people are sometimes with miles+copay).
On another note -- interesting observation on EF. In the past it seemed like C availability would open up, and then people would have to call it in to be upgraded at times. Well I was flying 183 on PVG-LAX and just got upgraded to J using miles+copay. Did not get any EF notification and C availability still showing 0. It must mean that AA is processing upgrades faster now than EF can refresh and the old method of "calling it in" when you see C open up may no longer be valid? No email from AA either just have a new J class seat assignment with "Ticket Pending" when checking online.
On another note -- interesting observation on EF. In the past it seemed like C availability would open up, and then people would have to call it in to be upgraded at times. Well I was flying 183 on PVG-LAX and just got upgraded to J using miles+copay. Did not get any EF notification and C availability still showing 0. It must mean that AA is processing upgrades faster now than EF can refresh and the old method of "calling it in" when you see C open up may no longer be valid? No email from AA either just have a new J class seat assignment with "Ticket Pending" when checking online.
Dec 31, 2015, 8:49 am
#1227
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Amb Elite & LT Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,230
I think I know the answer to this, but I'll take some feedback on the 2 person UG strategy.
Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).
Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.
Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.
Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).
Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.
Thoughts?
Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).
Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.
Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.
Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).
Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.
Thoughts?
Dec 31, 2015, 12:22 pm
#1228
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 4,548
I think I know the answer to this, but I'll take some feedback on the 2 person UG strategy.
Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).
Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.
Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.
Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).
Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.
Thoughts?
Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).
Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.
Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.
Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).
Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.
Thoughts?
Id stay linked, hope that they release a block and the two clear together.
Dec 31, 2015, 12:53 pm
#1229
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, Marriott Amb Elite & LT Titanium, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 1,230
Thanks. Of course I also have EF checking for 1 so if it pops up there is a good chance I'll know about it.
If one clears I'll be in the back anyway.
If one clears I'll be in the back anyway.
Dec 31, 2015, 8:00 pm
#1230
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Phoenix/Columbus
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,717
EZE
Any of the 3 flights better chances for SWU - DFW, MIA, JFK? Flying on 8/24 & back on 9/2.