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2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

 

Old Dec 25, 15, 10:38 pm
  #1216
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: Los Angeles
Programs: AA EXP
Posts: 788
Anyone have any info on SWUs clearing from LHR-LAX? I just waitlisted, and am about 50 days out - flight is on a Tuesday.
Hengilas is offline  
Old Dec 26, 15, 6:09 pm
  #1217
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: STL/ORD/SAN
Programs: AA EXP, AS MVPG75K, HH/SPG/Marriott Gold
Posts: 788
Originally Posted by Jerseyguy View Post
My brother just started working in STL and will be commuting from AUS to STL every week Sunday night to Thursday. Trying to make his decision between AA and WN and I'm wondering how often will he be upgraded to First between DFW and STL (he doesn't care about the AUS-DFW flight). Once he gets to Exec platinum (which would happen the beginning of August), how often can he expect to be upgraded? Because WN has a nonstop AUS-STL and he'd qualify for the companion pass.
Sunday night DFW-STL upgrades generally aren't too bad -- I'm 100% in recent memory as EXP. I also used to clear this one fairly regularly as a PLT. STL-DFW on a Thursday afternoon/evening is less of a guarantee, but an EXP will still clear fairly often on this route.

The one thing that could kill UPG percentage, though, is the aircraft type. In the past, this route has been serviced primarily by the MD-80, with an occasional 738 or 757. Recently, though, it's been the MD-80, LUS CR9, and LAA 319. F cabins on the 319 only have eight seats and routinely sell out before the T-100 EXP upgrade window. Some travelers may not like the CR9 regional jet flights -- the F cabin is actually fairly comfortable, and the single seat side is nice (1x2 configuration), but gate checking rollaboards is a pain.
metallo is offline  
Old Dec 27, 15, 12:09 am
  #1218
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum, DL Silver/MM, Hilton Diamond, Hertz 5* Gold
Posts: 5,635
Originally Posted by Jerseyguy View Post
My brother just started working in STL and will be commuting from AUS to STL every week Sunday night to Thursday. Trying to make his decision between AA and WN and I'm wondering how often will he be upgraded to First between DFW and STL (he doesn't care about the AUS-DFW flight). Once he gets to Exec platinum (which would happen the beginning of August), how often can he expect to be upgraded? Because WN has a nonstop AUS-STL and he'd qualify for the companion pass.
That's a tough one. To choose AA he would really have to either hate flying WN or really want AA status for other flying besides these trips. He'll probably get upgraded on AA most of the time, but AUS-DFW and return can either be ridiculously easy or impossible depending on day/time/luck. Hopefully he can book his flights well in advance to maximize his chances.

I first earned EXP the hard way on segments commuting between AUS and DFW. For me it was a no-brainer since I didn't need to worry about missing a connection and DFW was much closer to my destination than Love Field. In your brother's situation I'd probably opt for WN.
Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 27, 15, 7:14 am
  #1219
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 406
Booked on MIA-MVD on a Saturday night in March and EZE-JFK on a Wednesday night -- anyone got experience with what the chances are for two pax from J to F as EXP in C? From what it seems on EF, the MIA-MVD loads are pretty full in both cabins. Thanks y'all in advance!

Originally Posted by Railtester View Post
My brother is flying 112 from MIA to BCN Jan 11, any idea on if he will hit with a SWU and what version of the 777 it is?
Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?

Last edited by supermintyfresh; Dec 27, 15 at 7:21 am
supermintyfresh is offline  
Old Dec 27, 15, 7:25 am
  #1220
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: San Francisco, where else?
Programs: Former-AA-EXP for many years-CK 2.5mm, now lifetime Platinum, ex-UA1K, Marriott- Platinum, Hertz 5*
Posts: 793
They just zeroed out all the fare buckets on flights I was watching from DFW to SFO for tomorrow... I assume this indicates overbooking / weather? Assigned seats in F are the same quantity as before.
goldengate is offline  
Old Dec 27, 15, 10:58 am
  #1221
 
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: AUS
Programs: AA Exec Platinum, DL Silver/MM, Hilton Diamond, Hertz 5* Gold
Posts: 5,635
Originally Posted by goldengate View Post
They just zeroed out all the fare buckets on flights I was watching from DFW to SFO for tomorrow... I assume this indicates overbooking / weather? Assigned seats in F are the same quantity as before.
Bad weather in DFW yesterday and today means that the impact will spill over into tomorrow's flights. So they proactively zero out flights to make the gate agents sort everything out. However, they will often still process some advance upgrades even if a flight is F0.
Stripe is offline  
Old Dec 28, 15, 12:26 am
  #1222
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: New Orleans (MSY); Jackson (JAN); Shreveport (SHV)
Programs: AA EXP, IHG PLT, Hilton Gold, Amtrak, WN
Posts: 2,272
Originally Posted by vxmike View Post
I would opine that it may mirror DFW-HKG and reverse where the Tue/Wed/Thu flight arrivals that fall right in the middle of a work week will be the easiest. With the date change there will be plenty of people missing the Mon or Fri I suspect.

The good thing about AA starting more "popular" routes like DFW-HKG, LAX-SYD and LAX-AKL is there are more flights where folks will want to burn their SWUs as opposed to everyone flying DFW-HKG.

The cut to 4 SWUs down to 8 will help a lot too. Having 8 does no good if you only fly a few paid intl trips a year and miss on some of them...

Hawaii also needs an SWU now to have a good chance of riding up front.

Oh, yeah, it's going to be GREAT having four SWUs to upgrade into "Premium" Y.
brewdog11 is offline  
Old Dec 28, 15, 2:38 am
  #1223
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: DTW
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO
Posts: 1,696
Originally Posted by lt1GM View Post

While I'm certainly glad that the upgrades came through, I don't like the new super stingy revenue management approach to upgrades and award availability. What, in the next two days they'll sell more than a dozen premium seats on Xmas day?? Makes me wonder how I'll ever be able to use my many miles pre price hike and short of "AAnytime" highway robbery "awards".
My opinion...

The new model will be (almost is now) miles being usable for economy flights only on AA metal. EVIPs only clear last minute for longhaul intl and once Premium Economy comes upgrades will only be good for Y>Y+ upgrades.

Might as well use up the AA stash for partner F/J awards now before they find a way to kill off that option too. BA has YQ, Qantas has crap availability and LAN Business is basically zero too.
vxmike is offline  
Old Dec 28, 15, 8:23 am
  #1224
 
Join Date: Jul 2015
Programs: AA EXPLAT, ST Elite+, IHG Spire Amb., LCA Gold, MR Gold, Hhonors Diamond
Posts: 158
Booked Lhr-jfk on 01-22 (friday morning 10.15 Aa 101). When I booked, J was pretty empty. Now, half the cabin filled up. I think i'm number 4/5 on the SWU waitlist (based on the number Of MCE seats that were already used). Any idea of my chances?

Also booked Lax-las on 01-23 saturday with an auto requested upgrade. Pretty empty F and MCE.

I'm Ex plt. Thanks in advance for your answers.
jongesander is offline  
Old Dec 28, 15, 10:16 am
  #1225
 
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Jacksonville, Fl USA
Programs: AA EXP, Admirals Club, IHG Gold, Hilton Diamond, National Emerald Executive
Posts: 139
Originally Posted by supermintyfresh View Post
Booked on MIA-MVD on a Saturday night in March and EZE-JFK on a Wednesday night -- anyone got experience with what the chances are for two pax from J to F as EXP in C? From what it seems on EF, the MIA-MVD loads are pretty full in both cabins. Thanks y'all in advance!



Looks like the old 772 according to the EF seatmap. However, the good news is that it also means there are more premium seats for upgrade. The seatmap is 9/45 full and the availability is showing J7 (at least 7 seats in business open) so I'd say his chances are pretty good -- he'll probably get it! Is he EXP or are you giving him the SWU to use?
I am giving hims the swu.
Railtester is offline  
Old Dec 30, 15, 10:59 am
  #1226
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
Location: LA
Programs: AA, DL, UA
Posts: 406
Originally Posted by Railtester View Post
I am giving hims the swu.
Okay then that's a little harder since he'll be going against people with any status who are doing SWUs and/or miles+copay -- although this number probably will be very small (surprising how stingy people are sometimes with miles+copay).

On another note -- interesting observation on EF. In the past it seemed like C availability would open up, and then people would have to call it in to be upgraded at times. Well I was flying 183 on PVG-LAX and just got upgraded to J using miles+copay. Did not get any EF notification and C availability still showing 0. It must mean that AA is processing upgrades faster now than EF can refresh and the old method of "calling it in" when you see C open up may no longer be valid? No email from AA either just have a new J class seat assignment with "Ticket Pending" when checking online.
supermintyfresh is offline  
Old Dec 31, 15, 9:49 am
  #1227
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat (100) , Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 989
I think I know the answer to this, but I'll take some feedback on the 2 person UG strategy.

Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).

Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.

Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.

Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).

Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.

Thoughts?
deac83 is offline  
Old Dec 31, 15, 1:22 pm
  #1228
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
Programs: AA EXP...couple hotels and cars too
Posts: 3,077
Originally Posted by deac83 View Post
I think I know the answer to this, but I'll take some feedback on the 2 person UG strategy.

Flight DFW-LHR in July 16 (Friday flight).

Myself (EXP) and Mrs. Deac83 (plat) traveling.

Not worried about sitting together if UG clears.

Generally I believe splitting the record is the best way to do. Most likely to clear one UG. Then roll the dice with the 2nd. Only issue I now see in this strategy is that since 'C' inventory seems to be non-existent ahead of time, they seem to release a block of seats close in on the LHR flights, so staying on the same PNR would likely clear us at the same time (in this case).

Obviously, if we got to T-24 with no UG and seats still available we could split the PNR at the last minute.

Thoughts?
IMO stay linked until MUCH closer. If you split now, she as a plat will never clear in advance... then, as you know, a friday night in summer is a relatively heavy business and EXP plane. YOU will probably ride in back...

Id stay linked, hope that they release a block and the two clear together.
Exec_Plat is offline  
Old Dec 31, 15, 1:53 pm
  #1229
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Programs: AA EXP, SPG Plat (100) , Marriott LT Plat, Hilton Diamond
Posts: 989
Thanks. Of course I also have EF checking for 1 so if it pops up there is a good chance I'll know about it.

If one clears I'll be in the back anyway.
deac83 is offline  
Old Dec 31, 15, 9:00 pm
  #1230
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: University of Arizona College of Pharmacy, Phoenix, AZ USA
Programs: Delta Silver Medallion, United Gold, US Airways silver
Posts: 1,523
EZE

Any of the 3 flights better chances for SWU - DFW, MIA, JFK? Flying on 8/24 & back on 9/2.
remedy is offline  
 


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