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2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

 

Old Jan 23, 15, 1:12 am
  #31
 
Join Date: May 2007
Programs: AAdvantage, Hilton
Posts: 3,190
Originally Posted by frudd38 View Post
Thanks, that assumption of few elites in Y is helpful, knowing Y is oversold but the "preferred" seats have not been selected. My goal is to get home earlier to save a day of work instead of arriving in the evening, although I think my chances are good with upgrading on the 77w.

sukn, why do you assume it's less than 5 EXP on the upgrade list?
It's not an assumption.
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Old Jan 23, 15, 9:26 am
  #32
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
Programs: AA PLT/1MM
Posts: 63
Can we talk Miles+CoPay Upgrades?

Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.

1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.

I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?

4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
larreajoe is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 10:33 am
  #33
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: CA
Programs: AA-EXP, National Exec. Elite, Hilton Gold, GE
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Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.

The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
UAL1200 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 12:10 pm
  #34
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: California
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Originally Posted by UAL1200 View Post
Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.

The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
One month is about my cutoff for LAX-LHR-LAX. I was at 3.5 weeks and was the last EXP cleared at the gate. I was at 4 weeks and was not going to make the cut but got lucky. Having said that, those two flights look very open- in MCE, in J and in F.

I predict you will clear in the week before, maybe day 4-5 out.

GL
Exec_Plat is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 2:09 pm
  #35
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Originally Posted by larreajoe View Post
Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.

1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.

I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?

4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
The Italy flights are a tough upgrade b/c there are so few direct flights from the states. Mid week makes it a bit better but I still wouldn't expect for the ugprade to clear until very close to departure. That's just standard for these routes.
bdemaria is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 2:10 pm
  #36
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
Programs: AAdvantage PLAT
Posts: 6,913
Somewhat related, I'm standing by for an earlier flight to maximize upgrade chances. To be clear, even though I'm now on the standby list for the earlier flight, I am still on the upgrade list in the same order for my original flight, right?

I realize I need to clear the standby to be added to the upgrade list on the earlier flight.
MAH4546 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 2:51 pm
  #37
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: USA
Programs: AA EXP, UA GLD, MR PLT, HH Dia, SPG PLT, Hyatt Expl
Posts: 2,534
Originally Posted by larreajoe View Post
Just booked SFO-JFK-MXP-JFK-LAX-SMF last night out 4/8 back 4/18. Called to request miles+copay upgrade (C) and was, of course, waitlisted.

1. EF shows 7s across the board on all flights in all classes.
2. Seat map shows almost 100% open seats in C
3. MCE seats appear relatively open as does Y in general.

I understand they'd rather get 5K/seat rather than the copay amount...but what kind of capacity controls are in place? Anyone have any experience on these routes?

4/8 AA18 SFO-JFK
4/9 AA198 JFK-MXP
4/18 AA199 MXP-JFK, AA117 JFK-LAX, AA2616 LAX-SMF (Eagle/Envoy single cabin)
Originally Posted by bdemaria View Post
The Italy flights are a tough upgrade b/c there are so few direct flights from the states. Mid week makes it a bit better but I still wouldn't expect for the ugprade to clear until very close to departure. That's just standard for these routes.
NYC is a major financial center. Milan is also a major financial center. From the airline's perspective, it is reasonable to expect last minute revenue booking in business class. If they can collect $5K/ticket, AA RM will wait and save those seats for business travelers with a generous travel expense account.
Time traveller is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 3:58 pm
  #38
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
Programs: AA PLT/1MM
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Originally Posted by Time traveller View Post
NYC is a major financial center. Milan is also a major financial center. From the airline's perspective, it is reasonable to expect last minute revenue booking in business class. If they can collect $5K/ticket, AA RM will wait and save those seats for business travelers with a generous travel expense account.
Good point. Will add 500-mile upgrade requests for the domestic legs just in case.
larreajoe is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 4:04 pm
  #39
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Sacramento - SMF
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Posts: 63
Originally Posted by larreajoe View Post
Good point. Will add 500-mile upgrade requests for the domestic legs just in case.
Turns out you can't have both a mileage upgrade request AND a 500-mile upgrade request...according to the agent.

I *guess* that makes sense?
larreajoe is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 4:19 pm
  #40
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: New York
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Originally Posted by UAL1200 View Post
Just booked LAX-LHR (2/14) and LHR-LAX (2/20) on the 77W. J and Y look decently empty when I was waitlisted for SWU, but then again it's one month out.

The only other 77W route I been on was DFW-HKG, but that was a disaster. What are past experiences like for LHR on the 77W?
I was updated back and forth in late September. Received my JFK-LHR upgrade at check-in and at T-100 for the return. There's a thread discussing 77W experiences if you are looking for that too.
george 3 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 6:13 pm
  #41
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Originally Posted by MAH4546 View Post
Somewhat related, I'm standing by for an earlier flight to maximize upgrade chances. To be clear, even though I'm now on the standby list for the earlier flight, I am still on the upgrade list in the same order for my original flight, right?
I've not tried that so don't have the answer. I think your biggest risk may be that they clear the upgrade list before they clear the standby list, and if there's no upgrade seats left you'll be riding in coach after you clear the standby list.
tom911 is offline  
Old Jan 23, 15, 6:16 pm
  #42
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: los angeles, calif.
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Originally Posted by tom911 View Post
I've not tried that so don't have the answer. I think your biggest risk may be that they clear the upgrade list before they clear the standby list, and if there's no upgrade seats left you'll be riding in coach after you clear the standby list.
Yes, but that's not a risk, because when you clear the standby list, you don't get taken off your original flight until you actually board the new flight. So if I don't like my seat/don't get upgraded, I simply don't board.
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Old Jan 23, 15, 8:24 pm
  #43
 
Join Date: May 2009
Location: SEA
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Posts: 4,797
Originally Posted by larreajoe View Post
Turns out you can't have both a mileage upgrade request AND a 500-mile upgrade request...according to the agent.

I *guess* that makes sense?
I've been "OK" with this when I've requested EXP Comp upgrades at time of booking and then waitlisted for SWU. Both seem to stay in place. But i've read of other folks not being able to have both.
mikelat is offline  
Old Jan 24, 15, 3:55 pm
  #44
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Programs: AA PLT, SPG Gold
Posts: 1,612
I'm curious to see how this goes. Requested miles+copay upgrade on DFW-MAD early march for wife and I. J cabin wide open at the moment, only 3/28 taken. Amazingly when I was tracking this flight last week EF was showing C2. Unfortunately couldn't snag those as had to confirm our plans yet. MCE is little more than half full (was about the same last week), so I like our chances. Interesting though that there was C space available despite many seats occupied in MCE.
no1cub17 is offline  
Old Jan 25, 15, 3:05 pm
  #45
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Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Victoria, B.C.
Programs: Hyatt Globalist, AA Gold, AS MVP
Posts: 1,596
Does anyone have any predictions for 2015?

I did a quick search using Experflyer and searched maybe 100 dates, and couldn't find a single Dallas - London "C" space. Unfortunately from my location I am forced to fly DFW-LHR to get to most European locations unless I want a forced night layover before I start my trip, and when I return.

In past years you have hear me whine about less "C" space. However I was usually able to find at least 6 days in a year with "C" space availability. I also complained about a huge reduction in the saver business award space American Airlines was releasing.

Last year was a burn year for me. I only managed about 15K on AA, so I obviously didn't requalify as Ex Plat. so I am not up to date with current conditions with regards to SWU availability.

However, fond memories of flying to Europe on AA have made me reconsider chasing the AA Ex Platinum status once again.

With the 787's and the worse ratio of Y-J will that make it harder too?

AA is also retrofitting many aircraft. So although improving the hard product, again a worse Y/J ratio.

What do you think 2015 will bring? Any predictions for the year? Strategies - I used to just book flights that had confirmable "C"?
smilee is offline  
 


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