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2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

2015 Chances of Upgrade Clearing and Upgrade Availability Discussion (consolidated)

 

Old Jan 20, 15, 2:23 pm
  #16  
 
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I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
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Old Jan 20, 15, 2:38 pm
  #17  
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Originally Posted by lagunas2k View Post
I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
Well, I could certainly see people burning leftover SWUs in Jan/Feb for domestic flights, so that could explain how full the Feb cabins are. As for March, in theory the SWU usage would have tapered back to "normal," but you're then also getting into the season for spring break, cruises, etc., which could lead to increased demand in the forward cabin?

(I'm not familiar with that route, so not sure if there is high demand for premium paid fares. My gut says that with the high-dollar industries in those markets, demand would be high, but I have no proof.)
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Old Jan 20, 15, 3:09 pm
  #18  
 
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Originally Posted by lagunas2k View Post
I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was. This is on the 763. I had hoped my chances would have been good given the number of seats. Are these all revenue passengers or are people using SWU's to clear on this flight?
Keep in mind that if these flights are timed to connect to SA flights, anyone booking a J ticket (purchased or SWU) to SA, will be put in F on the domestic flight.
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Old Jan 21, 15, 11:10 pm
  #19  
 
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Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
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Old Jan 21, 15, 11:37 pm
  #20  
 
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Originally Posted by frudd38 View Post
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
you're thinking of jumping onto that flight now??? 19 days and only 10 seats?

The calculus is [number of J to F upgrades that will happen] + [10 open seats] - [your position on the waitlist] - [# of J seats sold up to flight time] >=0
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Old Jan 22, 15, 8:48 am
  #21  
 
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Originally Posted by frudd38 View Post
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
Its hard to say much about one flight - much easier to choose the better bet of two or more flights.

That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.

Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.

(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
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Old Jan 22, 15, 9:38 am
  #22  
 
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Flying NAS - DFW - ORD on Saturday (1/24)

Cleared NAS - DFW at T-100, but DFW - ORD has yet to clear even though EF is showing F7/A6.

8/16 FC seats assigned.

What gives?
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Old Jan 22, 15, 9:45 am
  #23  
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Originally Posted by DylanOakes View Post
Flying NAS - DFW - ORD on Saturday (1/24)

Cleared NAS - DFW at T-100, but DFW - ORD has yet to clear even though EF is showing F7/A6.

8/16 FC seats assigned.

What gives?
What gives? You are still several days before the flight & Very few upgrades clear at 100 hrs these days.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 11:59 am
  #24  
 
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Originally Posted by Exec_Plat View Post
you're thinking of jumping onto that flight now??? 19 days and only 10 seats?

The calculus is [number of J to F upgrades that will happen] + [10 open seats] - [your position on the waitlist] - [# of J seats sold up to flight time] >=0
Originally Posted by SeattleDavid View Post
Its hard to say much about one flight - much easier to choose the better bet of two or more flights.

That said, this flight is showing F7 J7 I5 Y1 and yet the Y seatmap (MCE especially) is wide open. That would lead me to wonder whether Y isn't close to oversold and that they'll probably need to bump some J into F to make room some op-ups from Y to J, which would probably be those in MCE.

Thus, despite there only being 10 J seats open, I suspect your chances might be better than they might sometimes be. As for what those chances are, I have no idea - I would call it possible but not probable.

(That said, I've had flights where upgrades looked impossible turn into upgrades at the gate - so in that sense anything is possible:-)
I appreciate the input. I'm currently waitlisted for the gauntlet that is AA138 HKG-DFW since last July, so my chances on that should be decent (knock on wood). However, since I received an involuntary schedule change and assuming it'll be a free change, considering booking to AA170 to go straight to work. I guess the best strategy is to wait until C opens up, but was just curios why row 20 was wide open in MCE, maybe not as elite heavy? Or these seats are just bad.

Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?
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Old Jan 22, 15, 12:09 pm
  #25  
 
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Originally Posted by umaa83 View Post
Keep in mind that if these flights are timed to connect to SA flights, anyone booking a J ticket (purchased or SWU) to SA, will be put in F on the domestic flight.
This makes sense. I wasn't sure on the timing, but perhaps this is why they use a 763 on this particular flight.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 1:54 pm
  #26  
 
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Originally Posted by frudd38 View Post
I appreciate the input. I'm currently waitlisted for the gauntlet that is AA138 HKG-DFW since last July, so my chances on that should be decent (knock on wood). However, since I received an involuntary schedule change and assuming it'll be a free change, considering booking to AA170 to go straight to work. I guess the best strategy is to wait until C opens up, but was just curios why row 20 was wide open in MCE, maybe not as elite heavy? Or these seats are just bad.

Also, if Y isn't oversold, why do you think they will do op-ups from Y to J?
If it is showing Y1, then it probably is oversold - the lack of occupied seats is due to the fact that Y has sold to non-status fliers who can only get MCE by paying and most of them don't. Thus, I infer that Y is full but there are few elites on this flight in Y.

Actually having typed that - isn't AA170 a 772? In which case it doesn't have MCE (does it?). I would stick with Y on a 773 (if I am in an MCE seat) rather than switch to a 772 even if the chance of upgrade was a little better.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 2:38 pm
  #27  
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Originally Posted by lagunas2k View Post
I just booked a few SFO>MIA>SFO flights in Feb and Mar and I was surprised to see just how full the F cabin already was.
I didn't clear MIA-SFO on a systemwide coming home from Madrid yesterday which didn't surprise me as the F cabin has been sold out for weeks and there was little paid availability when I booked the ticket (at least I cleared the 9.25 hour MAD-MIA at the gate). I wouldn't normally route that way but it was the only option coming home on a $700 fare (routing via JFK cost more), so just took the risk. I did have a window seat and one of the plastic inserts that blocks a middle seat on a 737-800 so a tolerable 6 hour ride home.

I missed 3 of 6 in either direction last year which dropped my domestic upgrade rate down to 87%. It's a tough flight to clear with the paid demand on that route. I would have been at 95% last year if those had cleared.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 3:28 pm
  #28  
 
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Originally Posted by frudd38 View Post
Can someone enlighten me about AA170 NRT-LAX on 2/10 as I am unfamiliar with this route. 10 open J seats on seatmap, MCE row 20 middle is wide open and thinking of switching to this to be able to go to work the same day. I would think those would be one of the first taken up by EXP if they are on this flight.
Y is oversold.

J has less than 10 seats for sale.

Fewer than 10 folks currently on upgrade list.

Fewer than 5 EXPs on the upgrade list.

F is wide open.

As of this moment the chances of an upgrade are pretty good, but that is all dependent on how many more F/J seats get sold between now and flight date.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 7:31 pm
  #29  
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ORD-SFO is down to 4x/weekday for the dog days of winter. The 7am departure used to be a reasonable shot last year when I was PLT as it was all Chicago O/D - wouldn't clear in advance, but 50/50 of clearing at T-4. Now I'm EXP, the 8:40am is the first flight, and it's already down to F4 for a week from today. Looks like I'm going to lose out to all the connecting traffic, the PLTs/GLDs on 6am flights from the east coast spending 15k+$75 and the EXPs who will have more priority.

And here I was hoping to get away from 15F for four hours and give my poor neck a break (the 737 Y seats do a number on my upper back as I'm too tall for the seatback).

First world problems.
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Old Jan 22, 15, 11:24 pm
  #30  
 
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Originally Posted by SeattleDavid View Post
If it is showing Y1, then it probably is oversold - the lack of occupied seats is due to the fact that Y has sold to non-status fliers who can only get MCE by paying and most of them don't. Thus, I infer that Y is full but there are few elites on this flight in Y.

Actually having typed that - isn't AA170 a 772? In which case it doesn't have MCE (does it?). I would stick with Y on a 773 (if I am in an MCE seat) rather than switch to a 772 even if the chance of upgrade was a little better.
Originally Posted by sukn View Post
Y is oversold.

J has less than 10 seats for sale.

Fewer than 10 folks currently on upgrade list.

Fewer than 5 EXPs on the upgrade list.

F is wide open.

As of this moment the chances of an upgrade are pretty good, but that is all dependent on how many more F/J seats get sold between now and flight date.
Thanks, that assumption of few elites in Y is helpful, knowing Y is oversold but the "preferred" seats have not been selected. My goal is to get home earlier to save a day of work instead of arriving in the evening, although I think my chances are good with upgrading on the 77w.

sukn, why do you assume it's less than 5 EXP on the upgrade list?
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